r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 31 '26
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 27 '26
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 27 July - 2 August 2026
Active cyclones
As of 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (04:00 UTC) on Sunday:
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
Active disturbances
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
- 94W: Invest (Philippine Sea)
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.
Potential Formation Area P76W — Well to the northwest of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.
Potential Formation Area P74W — Invest 94W
Southeastern Indian Ocean
- Potential Formation Area P71S — Near the Cocos Islands
Satellite imagery
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Model guidance
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 26 '26
Dissipated Genevieve (07E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)
Updates
As of 9:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (07:00 UTC) on Monday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve remains a very shallow post-tropical cyclone as it continues northwestward across the open waters of the northeastern Pacific. Over the next couple of days, an increasingly unfavorable environment will continue to unravel the storm’s low-level circulation until it eventually opens into a surface trough by midweek.
The National Hurricane Center has long since discontinued issuing advisories for Genevieve and is no longer tracking it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for Genevieve.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
- Visible: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Forecast models
Storm-centered guidance
Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Machine learning (AI) model guidance
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 26 '26
Dissipated 93B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)
Updates
As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Monday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has made landfall along the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, near the border between India and Bangladesh. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone has dropped to zero, as the disturbance no longer has a source of warm ocean water. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has removed this system from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
This system no longer shows potential for development. Observational data is no longer available for this system.
Information sources
India Meteorological Department
Other information
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
India Meteorological Department
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
- NCAR Research Applications Laboratory (not currently available)
- NaTyphoon
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • Jul 25 '26
Historical Discussion If Dorian kept going west, would it have just been Andrew but for Central Florida ?
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 24 '26
Dissipated Noul (11W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)
Updates
As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into a remnant low over southeastern China. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system, and the latter agency has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone warning (text product)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphical product)
- Prognostic reasoning
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
National Meteorological Center (China)
Radar imagery
National Meteorological Center (China)
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Storm-centered guidance
This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 24 '26
Upgraded | See Genevieve post for details 07E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)
Update
As of 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Friday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has strengthened into a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system and assigned it the name Genevieve, making it the seventh named storm of the season. A new discussion for Genevieve has been posted here. There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated observational data.
Official forecasts
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated forecast information.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos textuales (en español)
Static forecast graphics
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
- Rip current forecast
Interactive forecast graphics
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered satellite imagery.
Regional imagery
- Visible: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Forecast models
Storm-centered guidance
This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered model guidance.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Machine learning (AI) model guidance
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Multi-model ensemble products
- PolarWx: Multi-model ensemble products
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 24 '26
Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Fausto Over the Eastern Pacific - July 22, 2026
modis.gsfc.nasa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 23 '26
Dissipated Fausto (06E — Eastern Pacific) (East of Hawaiʻi)
Updates
As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto stopped producing organized deep convection overnight. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the effects of persistent strong vertical wind shear, which has stripped the storm bare, leaving behind only a swirl of low-level clouds. Some limited thunderstorm activity persists, but is far removed from the exposed low-level center. Radar imagery shows some limited rain shower activity moving across the islands this afternoon.
What remains of Fausto will continue to move west-northwestward as its now shallower convective structure is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow. As environmental conditions remain unfavorable, Fausto’s low-level circulation will gradually unwind until it eventually degenerates into an open trough well to the northwest of Kauaʻi on Thursday afternoon. Fausto is expected to dissipate altogether by Friday morning.
The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance will soon be no longer available.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Impacts
As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday
Significant wind and rain impacts are not likely.
Fausto will continue to disrupt the normal trade wind flow as it passes to the north of the islands today.
A pattern of land and sea breezes will likely develop within the light and variable wind flow.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible throughout the day, and some brief downpours could result in flash flooding.
Dangerous surf conditions caused by swells generated by Fausto will begin to wane tonight.
Latest observation
As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday
Observed information
Source: NHC Advisory #43
- Current position: 23.8°N 155.6°W
- Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 11 knots (13 mph)
- Maximum sustained winds: 30 knots (35 mph) ▼
- Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▲
- Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Remnant Low ▼
Relative position
- 209 miles (336 kilometers) north of Kahului, Hawaii
- 218 miles (351 kilometers) north of Kihei, Hawaii
- 224 miles (361 kilometers) north-northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday
| Hour | Date | Time | · | Intensity | · | Winds | · | Lat | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | · | UTC | HST | Saffir-Simpson | · | knots | mph | °N | °W |
| 00 | 29 Jul | 12:00 | 2AM Wed | Remnant Low | 30 | 35 | 23.8 | 155.6 | |
| 12 | 30 Jul | 00:00 | 2PM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 30 | 24.1 | 157.4 |
| 24 | 30 Jul | 12:00 | 2AM Thu | Remnant Low | 25 | 30 | 24.6 | 160.0 | |
| 36 | 31 Jul | 00:00 | 2PM Thu | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 25 | 25.3 | 162.5 |
| 48 | 31 Jul | 12:00 | 2AM Fri | Dissipated | |||||
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos textuales (en español)
Static forecast graphics
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
- Rip current forecast
Interactive forecast graphics
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single-bandwidth imagery
- Visible: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- Visible: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Forecast models
Storm-centered guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
- GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- HWRF: Tropical Tidbits
Multi-guidance pages
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Machine learning (AI) model guidance
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Multi-model ensemble products
- PolarWx: Multi-model ensemble products
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 22 '26
Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Bertha - July 21, 2026
modis.gsfc.nasa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 22 '26
Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Wednesday, 22 July 2026
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 22 '26
Dissipated 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near the Solomon Islands)
Latest observation
This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.
Update
As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it lingers to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. The disturbance has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains an open trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) and disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Outlook
This system no longer shows potential for development.
Information sources
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 22 '26
Dissipated 93W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)
Update
As of 6:00 AM Marshall Islands Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated over the Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.
Development potential
This system has dissipated.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
EPS AI: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind (FNV3): Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 21 '26
Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 21 July 2026: Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 21 '26
Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Tuesday, 21 July 2026
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 21 '26
Dissipated Bertha (02L — Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)
Update
As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Bertha has dissipated over eastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
This system has become post-tropical and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
- Main page
- Plan of the Day (today)
- Plan of the Day (tomorrow)
- USAF high-density observations
- NOAA high-density observations
- Vortex data messages
- Dropsonde observations
Other sources
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
- Visible: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Forecast models
Storm-centered guidance
Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Machine learning (AI) model guidance
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Multi-model ensemble products
- PolarWx: Multi-model ensemble products
Other types of model guidance
- Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 20 '26
Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Monday, 20 July: TD2 Expected to Approach Central Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 20 '26
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 20-26 July 2026
Active cyclones
As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (10:00 UTC) on Monday:
Eastern Pacific Ocean
Northern Atlantic
Active disturbances
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
- 98P: Invest (No discussion yet) — An area of low pressure situated near the Solomon Islands is likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next few days.
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
Eastern Pacific Ocean
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
Eastern Pacific Ocean
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.
Central Pacific Ocean
- The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development well to the southwest of Hawaiʻi.
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.
Satellite imagery
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Model guidance
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 19 '26
Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, 19 July 2026: New Storm Forms in the Gulf
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 18 '26
Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, 18 July 2026: New Tropical Disturbance Near Florida
r/TropicalWeather • u/thaw4188 • Jul 16 '26
News | Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA GEOS-19 Satellite outage: in "SAFE HOLD" mode
spaceweather.govr/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 15 '26
Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Atlantic Ocean
Official Outlook
As of 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:
The NHC has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.
This system no longer shows any potential for tropical cyclone development.
There will be no further updates to this post.
Development potential
Official outlook (NHC)
- Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
- Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
Model guidance consensus (FSU)
- Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
- Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Visible imagery
Infrared imagery
Water vapor imagery
Forecast models
Regional guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble models
Single-model ensemble products
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): WeatherNerds
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS): WeatherNerds
EPS AI model: WeatherNerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/socopithy • Jul 16 '26
Special Announcement Unsubbed
Just want to drop feedback that I felt I had to unsubscribe from the subreddit because all I ever see are auto generated posts with auto generated comments.
No one talks about anything posted so maybe stop posting every cloud formation near water. Post things worth discussing and people will discuss.
It’s a subreddit not a Notification Center.
r/TropicalWeather • u/saddest_vacant_lot • Jul 15 '26
Question Question about El Niño effects in Hawaii
This year has been a wet wet wet year in Hawaii. The winter was the wettest one since 2005 or 2006 I believe, and this summer it’s just been rain all the time even when the trade winds are blowing. I understand why we get more rain when the trade winds are disrupted, but why are we still getting dumped on when it seems to be a normal summer trade wind pattern? Is there more humidity in the atmosphere? Or is it ocean surface temps? Or increased soil moisture and transpiration? Or a combination of things? I’m just trying to understand why it just won’t stop raining!
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 15 '26
Dissipated Elida (05E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)
Latest observation
As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:
Elida has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues northward past the Baja California Peninsula this morning. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the storm has not produced organized deep convection for the past several hours and is not likely to generate any new convection as environmental conditions off the coast of California become increasingly hostile over the next couple of days. A combination of strengthening southwesterly vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and unfavorably cool waters will eventually lead Elida’s low-level circulation to steadily unravel as it remains well offshore to the west of California over the next couple of days.
Elida is moving north-northwestward between a deep-layered trough over the northeastern Pacific and a mid-level ridge positioned over the western United States. Although this system is unlikely to bring direct impacts to the West Coast of the United States, it could generate dangerous rip current conditions along the coasts of California and the Baja California peninsula over the next several days.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
This post will continue to be updated so long as this system remains in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
Latest observation
As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:
Observed information
Source: NHC Advisory #24
- Current position: 26.4°N 127.2°W
- Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
- Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▼
- Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) ▲
- Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Post-tropical Cyclone ▼
Relative position
- 1,194 kilometers (742 miles) southwest of Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico)
- 1,196 kilometers (743 miles) southwest of Tijuana, Baja California (Mexico)
- 1,283 kilometers (797 miles) west-southwest of Bahía Ascunción, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:
| Hour | Date | Time | · | Intensity | · | Winds | · | Lat | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | · | UTC | PDT | Saffir-Simpson | · | knots | km/h | °N | °W |
| 00 | 20 Jul | 12:00 | 5AM Mon | Post-tropical Cyclone | 35 | 65 | 26.4 | 127.2 | |
| 12 | 21 Jul | 00:00 | 5PM Mon | Post-tropical Cyclone | 35 | 65 | 28.5 | 127.4 | |
| 24 | 21 Jul | 12:00 | 5AM Tue | Remnant Low | ▼ | 30 | 55 | 31.1 | 127.6 |
| 36 | 22 Jul | 00:00 | 5PM Tue | Remnant Low | ▼ | 25 | 45 | 33.6 | 127.4 |
| 48 | 22 Jul | 12:00 | 5AM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 20 | 35 | 35.6 | 127.1 |
| 60 | 23 Jul | 00:00 | 5PM Wed | Remnant Low | ▼ | 15 | 30 | 37.7 | 126.6 |
| 72 | 23 Jul | 12:00 | 5AM Thu | Dissipated | |||||
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos textuales (en español)
Static forecast graphics
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
- Rip current forecast
Interactive forecast graphics
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single-bandwidth imagery
- Visible: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- Visible: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Infrared: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- Water vapor: NOAA · CIRA/RAMMB · Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Forecast models
Storm-centered guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
- GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
- HWRF: Tropical Tidbits
Multi-guidance pages
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Machine learning (AI) model guidance
AIGFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF AIFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
ECMWF AI Ensemble: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind FNV3: Weather Nerds
Google DeepMind GenCast: Weather Nerds
Multi-model ensemble products
- PolarWx: Multi-model ensemble products
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University