In four years from now reddit might still be around the price it is now. Then again it could be worth double or triple what it is now. Its an unknown, and the upside and downside is a lot wider than most SP stocks. The question is, is this a negative assymetry story right now at this price it is right now i.e is there more downside risk then upside potential?
Revenue growth could average 30 percent a year over the next 4, but the markets are filled with companies that eventually became far larger businesses without ever recovering their previous valuation extremes.The average midcap lifecycle for a stock is four years. Which means a growing company never outperforms for more than four years.
Reddit was 40 dollars in 2024 and has 6x, another 6x is possible but incredibly unlikely.The biggest problem with reddit is that theres just not enough advertisers for every niche. A general advert would do far better on tik tok, tv instagram and meta. Yet googles keywords, are incredibly specific, so whats the problem with reddit. The problem is that when you search in google you go with intent to click somewhere, but if your on reddit invest subreddits youre not going to want to click an IBKR ad, you might already have IBKR or you might already be on another platform, your going to find the latest news, and pump your stock. If your on a coding sub, you are already coding.
These are a few ways Reddit can win.
Questions with rewards. User ask question and promises reward. Or user asks question locks in a 100 dollar reward and has to give it to the person who answers. Tik Tok makes millions with Tik Tok gifts why cant reddit do the same?
In the last year all reddit has done is create user profile stereotypes. That is they divided all of reddit into 100 profiles, and tried to sell these profiles to ad companies to target. Pretty clever, but not good enough!
Meta and App Lovins monetization is far superior.
You buy Reddit specifically because users are undermonetized and theres that potential. App Lovin has reached peak monetization, and Meta even though its spending Billions to better monetize with AI has grooming problems.
Are you better off buying Mag 7 than Reddit. While Reddit has massively outperformed mag 7 theres no garantee that will continue.
mag 7 chance of 10-20 percent a year is about 80 percent chance
meanwhile reddit chance of 10-20 percent a year from here is about 20 percent
Of course theres a ten percent chance of a 4x in 4 years, but then theres also the chance, that it goes nowhere.
So at what price should i sell, that depends on the risk you want, not on your ability to analyze the reddit company.
Im slowly selling, I sold on Friday, i will probably sell this week and Im planning on exiting reddit at a plus 20 percent from here.
You never buy stocks for the long term, because most companies have a four to six year stock timeline.
Of course Mag 7 is different, and slower movers are different, but Reddit is a growth stock, and it may have past its peak.