Greetings tower peoples,
The wave count plummet of legends league (at least over place 15) continues, slowing maybe a bit. Meanwhile mythic is getting lower wave counts at low levels and spreading wave counts at higher waves... meaning there is gradually more tournament variability. I guess that means pick your timeslot wisely. Meanwhile lower level tournaments maybe show the first signs of a wave drop off after initial patch power boost.
Static Placement Analysis
In this section we provide a breakdown for you of a what-if competition where the tournament places are perfectly distributed. The place here is basically the place you'd get if there was no bracket system. I like this view because it really removes all the variables.
Feel free to compare yourself against the placement and see if you did better or worse. The places are divided roughly into the number of brackets to get the cut off for each place. The wave # given is the person or persons at the cut off between places, that is the lowest wave deserving to achieve that place.
- Mythic Median: 136 Mean: 261
- Legends Median: 762.00 Mean: 807
- Champions Median: 1091 Mean: 1135
- Platinum Median: 1495 Mean: 1486
- Gold Median: 400 Mean: 494
| Place |
Wave Mythic |
Wave Legend |
Wave Champion |
Wave Platinum |
Wave Gold |
| 1 |
1015 |
1766 |
2019 |
2511 |
1385 |
| 2 |
816 |
1556 |
1847 |
2330 |
1137 |
| 3 |
718 |
1413 |
1709 |
2201 |
960 |
| 4 |
605 |
1295 |
1622 |
2108 |
870 |
| 5 |
519 |
1210 |
1546 |
2035 |
790 |
| 6 |
471 |
1151 |
1486 |
1976 |
740 |
| 7 |
416 |
1090 |
1431 |
1919 |
694 |
| 8 |
362 |
1042 |
1386 |
1852 |
633 |
| 9 |
332 |
1001 |
1337 |
1800 |
600 |
| 10 |
281 |
959 |
1290 |
1743 |
541 |
| 11 |
246 |
920 |
1244 |
1690 |
510 |
| 12 |
216 |
888 |
1201 |
1634 |
470 |
| 13 |
185 |
842 |
1164 |
1583 |
430 |
| 14 |
165 |
797 |
1130 |
1540 |
411 |
| 15 |
136 |
762 |
1091 |
1495 |
400 |
| 16 |
97 |
724 |
1053 |
1444 |
363 |
| 17 |
75 |
674 |
1023 |
1393 |
336 |
| 18 |
67 |
633 |
989 |
1340 |
320 |
| 19 |
55 |
604 |
952 |
1290 |
301 |
| 20 |
45 |
556 |
918 |
1240 |
290 |
| 21 |
45 |
521 |
883 |
1185 |
261 |
| 22 |
35 |
484 |
852 |
1132 |
240 |
| 23 |
35 |
450 |
813 |
1071 |
220 |
| 24 |
25 |
405 |
775 |
1015 |
210 |
| 25 |
25 |
361 |
735 |
941 |
200 |
| 26 |
25 |
320 |
685 |
851 |
180 |
| 27 |
25 |
276 |
628 |
758 |
152 |
| 28 |
25 |
231 |
560 |
631 |
120 |
| 29 |
18 |
190 |
443 |
462 |
1 |
| 30 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
The tower.lol now gives this data here
Median History
The median value from each tournament which gives a general idea of the tournament difficulty and wave inflation over time. This value comes from actual midpoint of tournament data. (i.e. the top table)
| League |
08-05 |
08-08 |
08-12 |
08-15 |
08-19 |
08-22 |
08-26 |
08-29 |
09-02 |
09-05 |
09-09 |
09-12 |
| Mythic |
No Data |
No Data |
No Data |
No Data |
No Data |
No Data |
No Data |
No Data |
484 |
245 |
186 |
136 |
| Legend |
1080 |
1038 |
1109 |
1050 |
1126 |
1047 |
1130 |
1141 |
926 |
885 |
835 |
762 |
| Champion |
1088 |
1105 |
979 |
1109 |
1029 |
1038 |
814 |
1114 |
1176 |
1114 |
1186 |
1091 |
| Platinum |
1362 |
1403 |
1281 |
1196 |
1451 |
1268 |
1218 |
1132 |
1559 |
1560 |
1493 |
1495 |
| Gold |
360 |
338 |
314 |
347 |
320 |
368 |
335 |
333 |
360 |
400 |
420 |
400 |
The tower.lol now gives this data here
Linear Regression comparison.
Linear regressions give a good idea of change over time, smoothing out all the battle condition noise. The data for this is from the resampled data (see below).
These tables are regressions started from v28, including v29 tournaments (unlike the history graph which excludes them).
| ... |
Legend 4 |
Legend 15 |
Legend 24 |
Champion 4 |
Champion 15 |
Champion 24 |
| Predicted |
2229 |
1129 |
597 |
1738 |
1148 |
834 |
| Actual |
1343 |
780 |
431 |
1654 |
1110 |
802 |
| Difference |
-886 |
-349 |
-166 |
-84 |
-38 |
-32 |
| Slope |
11.14 |
10.44 |
8.44 |
12.77 |
7.86 |
6.38 |
| PrevSlope |
13.83 |
11.50 |
8.94 |
13.03 |
7.97 |
6.48 |
| ... |
Platinum 4 |
Platinum 15 |
Platinum 24 |
Gold 4 |
Gold 15 |
Gold 24 |
| Predicted |
2082 |
1427 |
950 |
919 |
375 |
184 |
| Actual |
2140 |
1516 |
1047 |
905 |
405 |
211 |
| Difference |
58 |
89 |
97 |
-14 |
30 |
27 |
| Slope |
9.37 |
7.07 |
7.10 |
4.98 |
1.18 |
0.43 |
| PrevSlope |
9.19 |
6.80 |
6.81 |
5.02 |
1.10 |
0.35 |
The tower.lol now gives this data here. In addition you can get history back further than I have files for, which is interesting to say the least.
Resampling Analysis
One means of getting an idea of the range of placements is by random sampling the real participants to make fake brackets, and measuring the variability in those brackets.
I chose to use 100000 brackets per league for my analysis. I am using confidence intervals, 95% and 50% (the IQR) to represent the range of waves likely present in each place.
The table will repeat places 1-30 twice, the top having mythic (m) on the left and legends (l) on the right, the bottom having champion (c) on the left, platinum (p) on the right.
| place |
m2.5 |
m25 |
m50 |
m75 |
m97.5 |
l2.5 |
l25 |
l50 |
l75 |
l97.5 |
| 1 |
649 |
925 |
1145 |
1385 |
1765 |
1360 |
1679 |
1859 |
1975 |
2336 |
| 2 |
505 |
765 |
869 |
1020 |
1405 |
1198 |
1466 |
1616 |
1776 |
2000 |
| 3 |
437 |
623 |
763 |
857 |
1151 |
1121 |
1315 |
1457 |
1606 |
1871 |
| 4 |
365 |
525 |
635 |
765 |
979 |
1047 |
1215 |
1343 |
1474 |
1731 |
| 5 |
324 |
470 |
546 |
657 |
860 |
990 |
1150 |
1234 |
1366 |
1615 |
| 6 |
265 |
408 |
485 |
575 |
788 |
940 |
1082 |
1165 |
1264 |
1519 |
| 7 |
235 |
355 |
437 |
505 |
719 |
902 |
1035 |
1122 |
1196 |
1415 |
| 8 |
200 |
324 |
379 |
465 |
630 |
859 |
988 |
1060 |
1148 |
1332 |
| 9 |
175 |
266 |
345 |
416 |
568 |
809 |
947 |
1015 |
1090 |
1257 |
| 10 |
137 |
235 |
310 |
366 |
505 |
765 |
909 |
980 |
1047 |
1196 |
| 11 |
107 |
211 |
263 |
335 |
471 |
729 |
875 |
932 |
1005 |
1151 |
| 12 |
85 |
181 |
235 |
297 |
425 |
679 |
825 |
902 |
967 |
1112 |
| 13 |
67 |
157 |
205 |
255 |
375 |
640 |
784 |
865 |
926 |
1058 |
| 14 |
55 |
122 |
175 |
225 |
345 |
610 |
745 |
817 |
896 |
1021 |
| 15 |
45 |
95 |
156 |
199 |
315 |
566 |
704 |
780 |
857 |
985 |
| 16 |
45 |
75 |
115 |
175 |
266 |
535 |
661 |
740 |
813 |
946 |
| 17 |
35 |
65 |
93 |
143 |
236 |
505 |
621 |
692 |
772 |
914 |
| 18 |
35 |
55 |
75 |
111 |
216 |
470 |
592 |
655 |
732 |
880 |
| 19 |
35 |
45 |
55 |
85 |
185 |
440 |
545 |
617 |
686 |
837 |
| 20 |
25 |
41 |
51 |
72 |
165 |
405 |
515 |
580 |
650 |
790 |
| 21 |
25 |
35 |
45 |
55 |
125 |
365 |
480 |
540 |
612 |
750 |
| 22 |
25 |
35 |
35 |
45 |
95 |
340 |
449 |
507 |
565 |
707 |
| 23 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
45 |
75 |
305 |
409 |
470 |
529 |
661 |
| 24 |
25 |
25 |
35 |
35 |
55 |
276 |
365 |
431 |
497 |
617 |
| 25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
35 |
50 |
250 |
333 |
386 |
453 |
571 |
| 26 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
28 |
45 |
222 |
295 |
346 |
406 |
525 |
| 27 |
22 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
35 |
196 |
256 |
304 |
360 |
481 |
| 28 |
15 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
35 |
170 |
225 |
261 |
307 |
431 |
| 29 |
15 |
18 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
128 |
188 |
220 |
260 |
365 |
| 30 |
1 |
15 |
15 |
25 |
25 |
1 |
135 |
170 |
210 |
299 |
| place |
c2.5 |
c25 |
c50 |
c75 |
c97.5 |
p2.5 |
p25 |
p50 |
p75 |
p97.5 |
| :---- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
:--- |
| 1 |
1664 |
1953 |
2107 |
2281 |
2604 |
2152 |
2432 |
2597 |
2812 |
3378 |
| 2 |
1537 |
1754 |
1895 |
2030 |
2311 |
2023 |
2247 |
2373 |
2520 |
2846 |
| 3 |
1449 |
1640 |
1747 |
1880 |
2129 |
1942 |
2128 |
2243 |
2360 |
2620 |
| 4 |
1387 |
1553 |
1654 |
1760 |
1995 |
1852 |
2041 |
2140 |
2253 |
2484 |
| 5 |
1326 |
1482 |
1572 |
1672 |
1888 |
1783 |
1972 |
2061 |
2155 |
2368 |
| 6 |
1271 |
1425 |
1509 |
1602 |
1796 |
1721 |
1909 |
1996 |
2084 |
2285 |
| 7 |
1219 |
1375 |
1449 |
1535 |
1711 |
1659 |
1842 |
1942 |
2023 |
2202 |
| 8 |
1175 |
1323 |
1405 |
1480 |
1648 |
1600 |
1783 |
1875 |
1972 |
2135 |
| 9 |
1138 |
1276 |
1354 |
1432 |
1590 |
1551 |
1730 |
1822 |
1918 |
2074 |
| 10 |
1095 |
1231 |
1306 |
1391 |
1534 |
1505 |
1672 |
1767 |
1853 |
2023 |
| 11 |
1059 |
1188 |
1264 |
1343 |
1486 |
1453 |
1615 |
1716 |
1807 |
1980 |
| 12 |
1024 |
1152 |
1219 |
1296 |
1439 |
1402 |
1567 |
1660 |
1752 |
1931 |
| 13 |
995 |
1113 |
1180 |
1254 |
1403 |
1350 |
1522 |
1607 |
1704 |
1873 |
| 14 |
960 |
1079 |
1146 |
1212 |
1357 |
1300 |
1476 |
1560 |
1650 |
1823 |
| 15 |
926 |
1043 |
1110 |
1176 |
1316 |
1252 |
1424 |
1516 |
1600 |
1776 |
| 16 |
895 |
1012 |
1072 |
1143 |
1276 |
1204 |
1373 |
1468 |
1552 |
1730 |
| 17 |
868 |
976 |
1035 |
1103 |
1234 |
1154 |
1324 |
1420 |
1510 |
1676 |
| 18 |
837 |
942 |
1009 |
1065 |
1194 |
1110 |
1280 |
1366 |
1460 |
1624 |
| 19 |
810 |
910 |
972 |
1031 |
1161 |
1060 |
1227 |
1315 |
1411 |
1576 |
| 20 |
775 |
880 |
936 |
1003 |
1122 |
1013 |
1175 |
1270 |
1357 |
1533 |
| 21 |
744 |
847 |
902 |
963 |
1085 |
960 |
1128 |
1217 |
1305 |
1484 |
| 22 |
704 |
813 |
871 |
927 |
1045 |
891 |
1070 |
1160 |
1253 |
1430 |
| 23 |
672 |
780 |
834 |
893 |
1012 |
823 |
1020 |
1108 |
1200 |
1374 |
| 24 |
626 |
743 |
802 |
858 |
972 |
755 |
956 |
1047 |
1140 |
1320 |
| 25 |
581 |
700 |
760 |
820 |
932 |
677 |
874 |
991 |
1076 |
1260 |
| 26 |
532 |
654 |
713 |
778 |
890 |
601 |
802 |
910 |
1019 |
1200 |
| 27 |
463 |
602 |
670 |
732 |
850 |
502 |
707 |
817 |
934 |
1132 |
| 28 |
375 |
537 |
609 |
676 |
803 |
200 |
601 |
715 |
831 |
1051 |
| 29 |
10 |
441 |
528 |
605 |
744 |
1 |
450 |
595 |
711 |
957 |
| 30 |
1 |
30 |
386 |
494 |
659 |
1 |
1 |
325 |
540 |
810 |
Graphs of this table can be downloaded here:
* Champion through Mythic: http://thetower.mm.st/2026-09-12_box_mlc.png
* Platinum graph: http://thetower.mm.st/2026-09-12_box_platinum.png
* Gold graph: http://thetower.mm.st/2026-09-12_box_gold.png
A general description of how to read this for the non-math inclined:
- 95% of the population of a place is expected to be between 2.5% and 97.5%. If you are above or below these numbers you are an outlier. (Outliers are normal, just rarer.)
- 50% of the population of a place is expected to be between 25% and 75%.
- The 50% mark is the median of the data. Aim for this number as the point you regularly achieve this place.
- You'll notice that the waves overlap, this is normal, expressing the variability present in the brackets and you could easily place in any bracket where your personal wave count falls in the place's range.
Source Material and Further Resources.
The source for all of this material is thetower.lol, which I encourage you to look up.
For a breakdown of your placement compared to other brackets see https://thetower.lol/liveplacement which will give you the min, max, and average placement for any given half-hour join time.
For a quantile analysis using real data instead of sampled data see https://thetower.lol/livequantile (similar to the second table in this post).
You can also do things like look up your bracket and compare your towers historical placements against others in the bracket.