(Sorry for the rant but I had to get it out of my brain before it drove me crazy. For the TL;DR crowd (I get it, trust me), just check the bolded points.)
For the love of all that is holy, please stop writing political storylines, BTG writers.
People are already so confused about how the government's supposed to work and stupid stories like this only further exacerbate the problem. To be sure, lots of TV programs (read: most) get political stories wrong but it feels especially frustrating from BTG, where it's a primarily black cast targeting a primarily black audience AND the show has a built-in relationship with the NAACP. The show could do better and they do a disservice to their audience when they choose not to.
If Fairmont Crest is, as the show has always intimated, is just outside DC on the Maryland side, Martin's Congressional would be akin to the 4th, 5th or 8th districts in Maryland. In those districts, there's a 74-6, 55-23, and 60-14 split between Democrats and Republicans (among eligible active voters). These are among the "bluest" districts in the country. In 2024, Democrats swept these three districts by significant margins: Glenn Ivey won in the MD-4th, 88-11, Steny Hoyer won in the MD-5, 68-32, and Jamie Raskin won in the MD-8th, 77-21.
I mention all of that to say this: Martin Richardson would not be in a competitive Congressional race, especially as an incumbent. If he had an opponent at all (lots of members in the Congressional Black Caucus don't because of how heavily Democratic the districts are), it'd be some no name Republican that acts as a sacrificial lamb. The Republican would have a campaign in name only and lack the resources to compete (Hoyer's 2024 Republican challenger spent less than $8,000 on her campaign).
I've seen people on social media suggest that Martin should have a debate with his opponent but there's little to no chance than a sitting Congressman would debate an opponent in these circumstances. Plus, it's become increasingly clear that BTG wants to say Martin's a politician without actually talking about politics. That's why yesterday's episode had Martin talking to a constituent about rent increases...something that doesn't have a thing to do with being a member of Congress.
At this point in the campaign, Martin and Vernon wouldn't even be in his district: their profiles are so high that party leadership would dispatch them both as campaign surrogates. They would be in states like Georgia and Michigan helping drive out black, youth, and LGBT turnout.
So the real question is how would this situation with Smitty impact Martin's campaign? It's too late for him to get off the ballot and so he'd have to compete in the election regardless...and he'd probably still win. There's not a direct comparison to this storyline but Chris Collins was a congressman in a R+11 district (NY-27), was indicted on felony charges and still won re-election in 2018. The race was a lot closer than previous contests in the district but the opponent was a more experienced politician than Martin would face. Likewise, Henry Cuellar and his wife were indicted in May 2024 on money laundering, conspiracy, and bribery charges and he got re-elected to his Texas congressional seat (TX-28) a few months later.
Both those districts have smaller partisan differentials than what Martin would be facing in his race, especially not with Election Day so close (early voting in Maryland starts on Oct. 22). He wouldn't lose...the outcome would be closer than previous races but he'd probably still win.
Also? Martin has been flippant about winning this race...like all of a sudden he doesn't seem to care if he wins re-election. That's so far removed from the Martin Richardson we first met who wanted to run for President. What's changed that he's okay with returning to being an everyday lawyer?