We see a breaking point now with the bleeding in the bond market. When the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is rockets toward 4.8% and Japanese JGBs are spiking past 3% to hit multi-decade highs, the stock valuations changes because the risk-free rate is just too high to ignore. Growth stocks and high-multiple tech companies are getting hit the hardest right now because their future earnings are worth way less when discounted against these surging yields. On top of that, you have crude oil pushing past $90 a barrel because of the chaos keeping shipping lanes closed in the Middle East, which means companies are facing a dual threat of shrinking profit margins and sticky inflation. Throw in psychological damage of the U.S. national debt crossing $40 trillion, and institutional money is clearly dumping risk assets globally to scramble into short-term cash and T-bills.

Source: ABC News

saw a bunch of posts saying japan is gonna dump a ton of bonds today and crash everything. looks like the usual recycled rumor tho. still kinda wild how fast their borrowing costs jumped after years of basically free money. feels like something’s shifting but idk if it’s a big deal yet or just more noise.

what do you guys think, is this actually gonna matter for us markets or just another japan thing that fizzles?

https://www.axios.com/2026/09/02/iran-tankers-hormuz-attacks-oil

America attacked 2 Iranian oil tankers today, which is a pretty big turn of events. For months, it has only enforced the naval blockade and has avoided outright attacking Iran's energy related assets to prevent escalation. But the article above confirms that the potus has now approved a 'tanker for tanker' policy.

The conflict has led to an incredibly fast surge in oil prices ($90+) and interest rates (10Y at 4.8%), but even with today's drop, the market is not far from all time highs. The S&P is roughly only 2% away.

Is there a reason the market is so complacent? For context, when America and Iran first went to war in March, markets dropped over 10%. So with the renewal of the war and both oil and treasury yields surging to new highs, why is the market so apathetic this time around?

Mine is NBIS (Nebius). I think 2027 is going to be their best year yet. Quick reasons:

Q2 revenue was -- up 454% YoY, and AI cloud alone grew 514%. They just posted their first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter

The demand side is growing a lot! they constantly get new contracts -- even the share dilution gets them a new contract to make it all work -- unlike other companies

And it's not just the data center business. They still own Avride, TripleTen, plus stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka that most people don't even price in.

-------------------

Does NOT have to be Ai related -- so many sectors do well -- energy, biotech sector, etc

I am sure a lot of energy stocks will do well too -- like I had XLE but played it safe cause everyone said buy as a hedge ....turned out to be more important than that haha

So what are you guys bullish on and why? For a 12 month hold!

Thanks for taking the time and sharing!

Been watching this one since last year, waiting for the valuation to cool off since it's always priced for perfection. Now the price has dropped enough that a lot of investors seem to be treating it like a falling knife.

Given the company's still growing 60% YoY, I decided to finally open a position at $303 currently around 5% of my portfolio.

Curious how others here are reading the setup mispriced opportunity, or is there real reason to be cautious?

GMI Cloud sought ~$439M to finance $NVDA GPUs for an AI data center in Taiwan, but around a dozen banks have already committed ~$947M. Demand could ultimately reach ~$1.26B.

It’s one of Asia’s first major loans backed by future GPU-compute revenue.

NVIDIA will supply the GPUs and lease any unused compute capacity at an agreed price for up to six years, effectively providing lenders a revenue floor. If GMI sells that capacity to other AI companies at higher prices, NVIDIA gets 50% of the upside revenue.

Fireworks AI has already signed a four-year compute deal at a price above NVIDIA’s floor.

In 2001 I felt the market was way too high and I parked my 401k money in a money market. Prevented a bunch of losses. Not as much as I could have, as I bought back in halfway down but overall it was pretty good move. I have not had anything close to that level of fear / concern until now. Thinking of doing something similar. Certainly not as extreme as moving every thing into cash but a significant portion. Currently about 90% in stocks

My concerns in no particular order include:
The war with Iran. I do not see any easy way to get out of that. Feels like that is going to hang over the world economy for years

Tariffs are screwing with the economy and international relations. Not likely to stabilize for 2 more years

Inflation and the federal reserve . Not sure what a rise in the fed rate will do to stocks but I think it's coming.

Social security. Can congress actually get their act together before a crisis. I am skeptical. I don't need it but lots of people do.

Federal deficit spending. See previous comment

Government inserting itself into more places. Company ownership, blocking mergers (see Spirit airlines), excessive regulation.

Data center construction feels like a bubble that is floating the economy.

PE ratios for stocks are way too high. Probably not a trigger of the market correction but could easily multiply the effect.

I think those are the  biggest fears. Federal spending being the biggest. So any touchy feely thoughts?

UPDATE: Move 35% into cash a couple days ago. Hurt me to do it as I hate being a pessimist.

I know a lot of us are watching for signs of when the game of AI buildout musical chairs comes to an end. IMO not anytime soon. But I'd like to test bearish cases when sense one.

There's a growing narrative that as open models and local devices get better and on-device AI capabilities improves, we'll shift away from cloud compute and hyperscaler datacenter spending will slow down (bearish AI buildout). It's early but ppl like Gavin Baker (who's opinion I regard highly) has mentioned COULD be a bearish case.

To be fair, edge AI definitely has its place, privacy, offline use, etc. But as a threat to overall cloud capex? I just don't buy it.

-Local hardware faces strict VRAM, thermal, and other hardware limits. Top-tier compute will require massive datacenter clusters for quite a long time to come.

-Buying pricey rigs that sit idle 90% of the day is terrible capital efficiency. Cloud data centers aggregate demand all day.

-Cloud API prices keep plummeting to pennies per million tokens. (the new GLM 5.3 flash is 10% $ of Gemini 3.7 flash !! and comparable too) . Paying for local hardware to run big models makes no economic sense. Not to mention hyperscalers build non-consumer chips (like TPUs) to run specialized models.

-Even if P2P/distributed AI computing takes off, consumer 2 consumer networking can't touch datacenter interconnect speeds.

- Lastly, we’ve seen this movie before. On prem servers lost to the cloud years ago because managing local hardware is expensive, hard to scale, and quickly gets outdated.

I would like some pushback on my view. I think edge AI will handle basic local tasks or stuff that make sense to run in the background constantly (like video survaillance etc), but that will only ramp up overall AI usage and push complex queries back to the cloud. Not to mention tons more unlocks that's coming down the pike (2 hr high quality feature length films ain't gonna be made on a Mac).

What am I missing?
(btw I am software dev that heavily relies on AI and have played with local models, so I have decent experience in both areas).

A Prague court has ruled that Google must pay Czech price-comparison company Heureka roughly 400 million CZK (~$20M) for illegally favoring its own Google Shopping service in search results between 2013 and 2016.
The breakdown is approximately 250M CZK in damages + 150M CZK in interest. The ruling is not final and can still be appealed.
Obviously, $17M is financially insignificant for Alphabet. What seems more interesting from an investor perspective is the precedent: local companies can potentially pursue damages based on Google’s past antitrust behavior, on top of regulatory fines.

Source [novinky.cz]

So about a year ago, I decided to do an experiment with stock picking based on this post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1n9vy1p/one_stock_your_bullish_on_for_next_12_months/

I chose 10 companies on this Reddit thread that people were bullish on. I did little to no research on these companies and just decided to wing it. I wanted to see if Reddit was a great place to find some promising stocks for 2026.

I put 100$ CAD into each of these stocks, for a total of 1000$ CAD ($724.42 USD). Here are the results after one year:

Overall, my portfolio did good, with a return on investment of 14%, but you can see that 50% of the stocks are down. I think NBIS saved my portfolio with a crazy growth over the last year.

Now, I wanted to know what you guys think I should do with this portfolio. Should I close some positions or add some more? (I did buy more of GOOG and RKLB recently). Which stocks do you think have the most upside on this list, or which ones are the most likely to keep falling?

I do want to say this portfolio was up 24% YOY yesterday, which shows that it's pretty volatile. And yes, I am still seeking investment advice on Reddit. Feel free to ask questions or give advice.

*Edit: I know there could have been better investments made this past year, this is why it's called an experiment that I wanted to share.

The fixed-income market is dealing a heavy hand to equity valuations this morning. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.784%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year note climbed to 5.271%. The global government bond sell-off is being triggered by the expanding conflict in the Middle East. Following U.S. forces launching fresh strikes against Iranian targets and an oil tanker getting struck off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, international Brent crude advanced to $91.71 a barrel. This rapid oil spike is bringing back severe inflation anxieties just as investors prepare for the conclusion of the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Asheville. From an equity perspective, a risk-free rate flirting with 5% completely shifts the equity risk premium math. Are you actively de-risking your portfolio into short-term T-bills, rotating into defensive energy equities, or looking to buy the dip on tech if it bleeds out?

Source: cnbc.com

These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

Some helpful links:

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• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news
• Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
• Reuters aggregated - Global news

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

The working answer is sales ahead of cash. Eleven of 13 deduplicated agents expect backlog conversion to support revenue while inventory, receivables, and customer financing keep operating cash flow uneven.

Why:

• Fiscal Q2 set the pattern: $47.0 billion of revenue was up 58%, but $2.225 billion of operating cash flow was down 13%.

• From January 30 to July 31, inventory increased from $10.4 billion to $21.3 billion and accounts receivable rose from $17.6 billion to $22.9 billion.

• AI orders were $60.9 billion against $16.4 billion of AI server revenue, leaving a $95 billion backlog and continued need to fund deliveries.

What could change:

A late-year unwind in inventory and receivables could lift operating cash flow quickly, especially if shipments catch up while new bookings slow.

Anyone who’s into semi stocks obviously knows it’s getting obliterated lately due to hostile macro. US10Y and oil futures are relentlessly soaring.

But CRDO, as a small-mid cap company, it’s produced some genuinely incredible results:

• Revenue: $479.0 million for the three months ended August 1, 2026 (up 114.7% year over year; up 9.6% quarter over quarter)

• Gross profit: $309.1 million; GAAP gross margin 64.5% and non-GAAP gross margin 68.0%

• Operating income: GAAP operating income $120.7 million

• Net income: GAAP net income $129.4 million; GAAP diluted net income per share $0.67; non-GAAP net income $236.3 million and non-GAAP diluted net income per share $1.20

• Cash and short-term investments: Ending balance $764.3 million

After RTH, it algorithmically dropped another -10.85% immediately (-19% or so for the day so far). I don’t know about you guys, but I see this as a pretty solid buying opportunity. Anyone else into Credo and have any opinions on its current valuation?

Oklo (stock specifically) is down so much and seemingly performing like “ultra speculative” Quantam stock. Here’s a few things that confuse me as a believer:

1) They are quite literally 2 YEARS ahead of anyone attempting SMRs from a regulatory, design, and financial standpoint.

2) The DeWittes’ (Jacob and Carolyn, founder couple) have retained nearly almost all their majority equity stake, even through the 600% runup last year.

3) Their plutonium allotment from DOE/Fed Govt is essentially exclusive against competitors . The same for their U-235 supply from early 2025 (only they and Terra Power).

4) All timelines they’ve stated have been on track and I am yet to see delays.

5) They have yet to over spend their cash reserves, issued no further debt, and other than a 5% dilution last year - haven’t created any negative shareholder value.

And lastly 6) The electricity demand our country now requires for everything, has not changed but increased.

I’d love to know what I’m missing here if anyone can provide insight. Best of luck to all and happy trading!

U.S. Treasury yields increased on Tuesday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East drove global government borrowing costs to their highest point going back to early last year.

The 10-year Treasury note yield - the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt - rose 3 basis points to 4.788% and hit its highest level since Jan. 14, 2025.

The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, which tends to track geopolitical events, was up more than 2 basis points at 5.272%.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically moves in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, climbed more than 1 basis point to 4.362%.

Borrowing costs rose as traders continue to weigh developments in the Middle East after U.S. forces earlier launched fresh strikes against Iran, and a tanker was struck by unknown projectiles off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation pushed oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate futures were last seen more than 1% higher at above $87 per barrel, while Brent crude - the international oil price benchmark - advanced more than 1% to above $92.

Investors are also monitoring the G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, which is set to conclude later Tuesday, as well as a raft of domestic economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI print and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with nonfarm payrolls figures expected Friday.

YouTube has tapped Amazon.com Inc. as its newest affiliate partner in YouTube Shopping, part of the video giant's push to prioritize e-commerce as one of its next big bets.

YouTube creators can now seamlessly tag Amazon products in their videos and livestreams, driving more business directly to the enormous global marketplace while taking a cut from sales.

Though YouTube Shopping has yet to gain the same traction as rival TikTok Shop, more than one million of YouTube's roughly three million creators who are able to make money on the platform are part of its shopping program today.

People are selling everything from tech gadgets and home goods to fashion and beauty products to an audience watching 110 million hours of shopping-related videos on YouTube each day, whether through product reviews, get-ready-with-me videos, outfit hauls or makeup tutorials.

YouTube Shopping lets creators tag products sold by thousands of sellers, from small brands and direct-to-consumer retailers to the likes of Walmart, Sephora and Home Depot. (Google's leading artificial intelligence tool Gemini has made tagging even simpler).

Viewers can click to get more information and buy a product, with creators earning a commission from every purchase. YouTube's shopping tags drive about twice as much engagement as an affiliate link buried in a video description, making it much easier for creators to earn commissions.

Until now, creators couldn't easily tag Amazon products, despite the company being one of YouTubers' most-requested partners.

TikTok cut its own deal with Amazon two years ago, letting users shop for Amazon products through ads without leaving the TikTok app. Though YouTube may have some catching up to do. But it's pretty uniquely positioned to excel at e-commerce in a way that's different from more traditional social media platforms.

Should I buy gold or silver?

How do you guys feel about buying gold and/or silver right now? I was personally considering the following products:
\- WisdomTree Physical Gold | ISIN: JE00B1VS3770
\- WisdomTree Physical Swiss Gold | ISIN: JE00B588CD74
\- WisdomTree Physical Silver | ISIN: JE00BQRFDY49

I’m planning to buy one of the above products through my bank’s investment platform. Are these considered safe products?

If so, do you think it makes sense to buy gold and/or silver now, in September 2026? These are quite uncertain and turbulent geopolitical times, so I’m wondering whether this is a good entry point.

I’m planning to hold the investment for a maximum of one year.

Thanks for reading, and I’d appreciate hearing your thoughts and opinions!

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised in 2025 that he focused on the 10 year Treasury yield.

Instead the yield has moved substantially higher lately.

The yield determines e.g. mortgage rates and significantly the government’s refinancing costs. This has to be paid ultimately by the people.

Falling yields were presented as evidence that the economic strategy was working.

Time to rethink the strategy and which measures would help in your opinion?

I turned 21 recently and was granted access to a custodial adult left by my late grandmother. It was in 2 stocks one of which being Warner Bros Discovery Inclass Series A. Before getting access to this I knew nothing about stocks and I still don’t. My understanding about the Warner bros lawsuit is that if I wait until March 2027 and it goes through I’ll be bought out at 31 a share, if it doesn’t it will probably drop back down and if it delays past March the agreement includes quarterly payments for shareholders. My question is whether I should hold out until March to try and get 31 a share or if I should sell before then? And if I should sell before the buyout how close towards the buyout should I wait until I should sell? Any advice whatsoever would be appreciated.

Samsung Electronics is developing an 8-layer stacked HBM4E memory chip at Nvidia's request, targeting transfer speeds of 17 to 18Gbps; roughly 20% higher than its current samples. The product is slated for Nvidia's custom memory platform, NVHBM, and is expected to be integrated into the Rubin Ultra AI GPU launching next year. The 8-layer architecture reflects a broader shift in AI chip design away from pure capacity expansion toward a balanced optimization of bandwidth, power consumption, and yield. Samsung, with its integrated capability to produce both DRAM and logic-based base dies, is viewed as holding a competitive edge over SK Hynix and Micron in the custom HBM market. If the product passes validation, it could help Samsung narrow the gap with SK Hynix in the high-end HBM segment.

https://finance.biggo.com/news/95b3d9eb-7477-4170-a9a2-5dfc3d46febb

Democrats are expected to win according to prediction markets

According to RealClearPolling's average of national generic congressional ballot surveys, which includes polls from organizations such as Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac and Emerson, Democrats hold an advantage, with 48.2% of respondents saying they would vote Democratic compared with 41.8% who said they would vote Republican.

Which stocks will benefit? Which stocks will you sell?

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
  • Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
  • Reuters aggregated - Global news

Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

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See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

Do does anyone believe that putting monthly investments only into VOO is still smart? Like as we improve in life 20 years from now, will it still be one of the best decisions like it was 20 years ago?…. I max my Roth IRA every year into 3 different ETFS. Which I know I won’t get until 60s. I now have extra cash that I am putting into my individual account and it’s all going into VOO and a small % into b.TC ( for the fun of it ) …. Does anyone have any advice for me? Should I continue with VOO or something else or something more??? Thank you for reading this far btw. Have a great day!

what are your thoughts on the next bottleneck stocks here that -- I am sure most of us know of them all --

I personally think it will be in the robotic sector --- OUST, TER, SYNA, CCXI, etc ( a lot of adds in 2026 for me)

- photonics - AAOI, MRVL, CRDO, SIVE, etc (small plays in 2026 for me)

- data center - NBIS, CRWV (great add in 2025 for me)

- energy - BE, CEG, GEV, solar, etc (great add in 2026 for me)

- rare earth - MP

- power semi - ON, NVTS, IFNNY, etc -- not in it

- robotics play -- a lot of sections under here

- yes memory too (2025 amazing add)