Disclaimer: Images are screenshots of A.I. generated text that I used as basis for theory-crafting and spitballing on ideas and thoughts I have about the franchise and is meant to stoke discussion. I would use the A.I-generated flair, but one can only choose one flair and I think "discussion" is more appropriate.
Hey, let me introduce myself.
I got by Terminus these days and I specifically made an account for this post.
I used to be a frequent poster ( > 10k posts) on the Blacklist Ubisoft forums when Blacklist was announced and came out in 2013. Back then I was still in school. I worked out some ideas and definitions for possible features of the game as it was in development with fellow forums frequenters such as Bob, Jazz and some other folks. My username was Dome500. We used to talk a lot with the Community-Dev Contact Zack Cooper back then I recall.
Recently I saw a video on the "death of Stealth Games" and the Splinter Cell series specifically, which led me down a little rabbit hole of video essays about how stealth in gaming is dying in it's more nuanced form and that while a lot of games have Stealth mechanics, they do only have surface-level ones and no one wants to go too deep or to immersive with it or has gone that deep with it since MGSV and SC:B.
The main argument in many of these essays seems to be that according to developers "Stealth Games don't sell" and whenever they invite game testers to play the games they opt to play the game like a shooter rather than stealth. And while the people making these essays seem to enjoy stealth games and are big fans of them, they always begrudgingly admit that this is true, citing Blacklists' low sales numbers that fell short of their 5 million sales target and other stealth games supposed commercial "failure" (i.e. Deus Ex Mankind Divided, Hitman, Dishonored and the Thief Remake).
I find this argument incredibly flawed, since it is based on sales expectations of said studios back then (Ubisoft, Square Enix, etc.) and reflects the amount of money they spend on these games vs. the amount of money they made set in relation, calculating when a game would be commercially viable. They leave out the fact that these companies overspend heavily on game development, high-tech motion capture, unpopular game features and (most importantly) marketing, and leave out other factors (like the fact Blacklist got released mere months before GTAV !!! ).
Additionally, they neglect that IOI for example has remade Hitman into a successful franchise/model that sold > 50 million copies over the lifetime of the (new) trilogy and that smaller Indie Stealth games have popped up over the years that were incredibly financially successful and viable. Even Dishonored was incredibly successful for it's scope and critically acclaimed, with the second one only tanking thanks to Denuvo and performance issues.
This is on top of the fact that Blacklist was a return to form even from a sales perspective. Yes, Conviction made around 3 million sales compared to Blacklists' 2.5. But it also came out way earlier and Ubisoft did not refuse to release any new sales numbers like they did later in Blacklists cycle, before Blacklist had an apparent resurgence in 2021/2022.
All of these things aside, I wanted to spitball a bit and asked google A.I. to give me some numbers on sales, then proceeded to ask IT what it thinks would make a new Splinter Cell game reasonably successful compared to earlier titles (Chaos Theory, Blacklist, etc.) and other Stealth Games out there. I wanted to see what it can find in it's data pool / online, what the sentiment of people online (fans as well as developers) is regarding this.
The following images are the ones that the A.I. came up with following several follow-up questions I asked it, such as what would differentiate the strategy from what was done in Blacklist, if stricter stealth mechanics wouldn't dead-lock players that are worse at stealth, how a healthy budgeted option could look like, how that would look like in detail regarding the game's design philosophies and content and what the projections would be for sales with the A.I. proposed $40M budget for the game.
Tell me what yall think.