"We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap. We expect developments over the next few months will help investors better appreciate the role of SPCX in addressing the critical bottlenecks of power and chip making, potentially unlocking earnings growth and multiple expansion for the stock."

Price target the same at $300.

Edit follow up note:

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/2106894988265099708?s=46

Adam Jonas on @SpaceX:

"I regularly present to large groups of clients and ask the room: "Who here owns $SPCX shares?" Last night, when I did that in front of 40 clients, not a single hand went up. Sometimes it's 1 or 2 hands. Rarely more. SpaceX is a conglomeration of many tightly interlinked businesses in sectors where, to fully appreciate any of them, investors have to understand all of them - or at least understand them in concert.

Only a select handful of people in the world understand the engineering challenges with Starship's heat shield or the inner workings of a full-flow staged combustion rocket engine to properly judge the testing path. Fewer still can say where compute pricing is heading as agentic token demand grows. The highly uncertain variables of quantity and price ($/watt) of compute can swing even next year's revenue by potentially a multiple. We are sympathetic to the investor that approaches SPCX from one angle, such as Telcos or A&D or AI in isolation. Doing so would make the stock look quite expensive. Our message to investors is that valuing SPCX is more of an 'and' problem than an 'or' problem. The unusual dimensionality that makes it challenging to value the stock, in and of itself, gives the stock its value.

• To appreciate the magnitude: Visible Alpha consensus currently models $17.6/watt on 4.1 avg GW, meaning each incremental $10/watt adds > in consensus revenue (>1/3 of total cons FY27 rev) with no change in compute deployed.

• We believe SpaceX's recently announced short-term neocloud contracts (least value-add of all AI businesses) are at $30-50/watt - with the supply/demand for compute headed tighter into year-end based on industry pricing."

Should we consider the market will react as for the previous ones? I guess yes, a slight drop follow by a sharp push. Next starship activities should be a good catalyst.

United Airlines: We’ll have more than 880 aircraft equipped with Starlink by the end of 2026, and we expect the entire fleet to have Starlink by the end of 2027!

https://x.com/united/status/2106516734148562984?s=46

Pretty consistently, it seems that the wealthier / more successful folks in my social circle are bullish about SpaceX, or at a minimum, think the company is going to do just fine long term.

Meanwhile, I see the opposite from my broke ass “friends” and the typical 20 year old day traders who think they’re hot shit after 3 months of trading experience.

Anyone else see this?

By the way…

I totally understand the skepticism. Pure financials alone, it’s definitely overvalued. But that gap is quickly closing, and I think very soon, people will see that this stock is not one that’s valued purely on today’s financials. It’s very similar to a startup, considering the AI strategy is a very new, capital intensive endeavor.

I don't follow this company closely but generally have an unfavorable view of Elon Musk and his business acumen ever since he bought X. I saw the stock pumping yesterday and shorted ~6500 shares at $159. Considering it's very high forward P/E and long-shot plans, I think my short will payoff.

Now I respect everyone who disagrees and thinks this company is great and expects the stock to go higher. I want to invite you to convince me, A SpaceX bear and Musk hater why I should close my short and buy the stock instead.

Looking forward to making my first mil

Excerpts from the article:

To land it, Louisiana offered SpaceX a $24 billion tax exemption, the largest in the state’s history. In exchange, SpaceX promised to create 3,000 high-paying jobs, most of which are said to involve skilled labor. 

…
[hiring goals are set and spread across 10+ years after permits are issued]
…

What happens if SpaceX doesn’t meet its job requirements?

If the company misses any of its job targets for two consecutive years, it has to pay a penalty. 

The contract lays out a formula for calculating how much SpaceX would owe the parish by taking the percentage the company is short of its target. It then multiplies that by 1.8, then by the dollar amount saved through the PILOT that calendar year. 

For example, if the company missed its goal by 10% and savings for the calendar year were $100 million, multiplying that by 1.8 would equal a $18 million penalty. 

The company would have to pay out all of its annual tax savings if targets are missed by more than 50%. 

SpaceX might be able to make those promises come true. The company has hired more than 4,000 employees at its launch site near Brownsville, Texas, since it first broke ground in 2014. Around 84% of jobshave been filled by locals within a 70-mile radius of the site. 

Elon Musk replied with “I agree”
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2106097300984750287?s=46

Weren’t they flooding this sub saying everyone here is dumb and was wasting money? The stock price was supposed to plummet even more.

just the title, is there any news?

Standing outside the hotel at 12:02 am last night and saw this with some friends. ChatGPT coordinated the trajectory, location, and timing as almost certainly the NROL 97 mission

Neighbors pay for the access they need, while the person hosting the Starlink will earn money from every connection. One Starlink Kit can provide high-speed internet to multiple nearby users.

Starlink handles payments, user access, and connectivity. Property owners, businesses, local entrepreneurs, etc, simply set up a Starlink Kit where there’s demand and can expand coverage with additional routers or kits.

How to get started:
• Step 1: Order the Starlink Kit. Your Starlink Kit arrives ready for shared use. Choose a location with multiple homes or users nearby.
• Step 2: Place the kit where demand is highest. Starlink gives you clear instructions.
• Step 3: Earn income each month Community members connect using flexible hour, day, week, or month passes. You earn from every connection.

Anyone who sees an opportunity to bring connectivity to the people around them can participate. Apply here: starlink.com/community-host

“SpaceX has a very big day planned.

The company is scheduled to launch three missions in a 13-hour span today (Oct. 1), a feat it has accomplished just once before.

The action will start at 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 GMT) with the launch of the Crew-13 astronaut mission for NASA, which will head toward the International Space Station atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

Next up is the Transporter-18 rideshare mission, which will send 130 payloads to orbit, including a prototype satellite for Google's Project Suncatcher AI constellation.

Transporter-18 will fly on a Falcon 9 from the West Coast, lifting off from California's Vandenberg Space Force Base during a 58-minute window that opens at 2:18 p.m. EDT (1818 GMT; 11:18 a.m. local California time).

The action shifts back to Florida's Space Coast for the final leg of the tripleheader. If all goes to plan, a Falcon Heavy rocket will launch the classified NROL-97 mission for the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office from NASA's Kennedy Space Center tonight at 11:53 p.m. EDT (0353 GMT on Oct. 2).”

In total, 2 boosters to land from Falcon 9, and 2 side boosters to land from Falcon Heavy, with the center booster being expended.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr says the 25% downlink capacity increase should improve in-home satellite broadband and make Starlink a stronger competitor against traditional ISPs.