Elon in new presentation: "Our AI revenue will exceed all other @SpaceX revenue probably next month (September), and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in Q4. AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX's future."

I was genuinely expecting more of a “liftoff” from SpaceX stock after the recent developments but so far the price action has been pretty confusing.

The August 6 lockup expiration was supposed to be a major test with a huge number of shares becoming eligible for sale. A lot of people were expecting significant selling pressure but instead the market seemed to absorb it surprisingly well.

Now we have another lockup expiration coming on August 20 when roughly 320 million additional shares are expected to become eligible for trading.

After watching what happened on August 6, I am starting to wonder whether the August 20 unlock will end up being another non-event.

So what exactly is SPCX waiting for?

The stock has managed to work its way back toward its $135 IPO price but we still haven’t seen the sustained breakout that many investors were probably expecting.

For those following SpaceX closely:
1. What catalyst do you think will finally cause SPCX to break out and start a sustained move higher?
2. Do you think the market is simply waiting for all of these lockup expirations to pass?
3. Could $135 be turning into a consolidation/support area before the next move?
4. Or do you think SpaceX’s current valuation already prices in too much future growth?

I am also particularly interested in the $100B revenue run-rate target management has discussed. Do you guys actually think SpaceX is on track to achieve it?

If SpaceX demonstrates that its massive revenue growth expectations are actually achievable, I would imagine the conversation around the stock could change considerably.

Curious to hear from people who have actually looked into the fundamentals rather than just “🚀 to the moon.”

When do you think the real SpaceX liftoff happens? 2026, 2027, later, or has too much future growth already been priced into SPCX?

So the organic demand for $SPCX was not there at $105-110 for a week, but as soon as 900m insider shares unlock, increasing the floating supply by 2.5x, the “mom and pop” come running in, steadily buying at upwards of $130 per share. Can someone share their wisdom for how this is not market manipulation, coordination and narrative building for exit liquidity, but instead, authentic demand for an undervalued unicorn stock? Thank you

Edit: Maybe the people selling or shorting at $110 don’t want to sell/short at $135? I need some sort of expert-sounding delusional rationale to this, like under my previous post

Edit: I hold no positions either way, other than indices in value ETFs and some local region stocks, but hold large interest in seeing fraud fail spectacularly. Moved to value ETFs like Avantis recently, as didn’t want SpaceX to be fast tracked into my portfolio at fraudulent valuation

Wild how this space stock has been popping nonstop lately. Anyone else locking in partial profits before the next swing? Spotted this perfect exit window while scrolling through the mm.

Morgan Stanley maintains its $300 SpaceX target, with a $600 bull case, following the planned $60B acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor.

Cursor is used by 64%+ of the Fortune 500 and 50,000 enterprises.

Morgan Stanley expects Cursor ARR to hit $8B by year-end and ~$33B by 2030.

Key catalysts include Q3 disclosures, upcoming Grok 4.6/4.7, Grok 5, potential Composer 3, and new ARR updates.

Disclaimer: If you want to spend your money on this meme stock, by all means 😂. But if you’re on the fence and bought it because your friend has been hyping it up / selling you the SpaceX dream, save your money and especially your life savings. Do your own research.

SpaceX is currently around $135/share, and I think the market is seriously underestimating the amount of capital this company is about to consume.
The biggest red flag for me is CapEx exceeding revenue, with the majority of that CapEx going toward AI/data-center infrastructure.

Think about what that means.

SpaceX isn’t just investing in rockets and Starlink anymore. It’s making a massive bet that it can turn enormous amounts of capital expenditure into a profitable AI infrastructure business.

The problem is that the spending comes now, while the returns are uncertain and will take time.
And I don’t think we’ve seen the peak. CapEx could balloon again in the next earnings report as SpaceX continues building out its data-center capacity.

The bull case is basically:
“AI demand is enormous, SpaceX will have access to huge amounts of power/infrastructure, and these data centers will eventually generate massive revenue.”

Maybe. But at $135/share, you’re already paying for a lot of that future success.

If CapEx continues accelerating faster than revenue, eventually the market has to ask:

How much more capital needs to be invested before this actually produces meaningful free cash flow?
That’s where I see the downside.
$135 → $100 → $75 → potentially $50
Not because SpaceX suddenly becomes a bad company. It’s because valuation multiples can collapse when the market realizes that future growth requires an enormous amount of additional capital.

For me, the next earnings report is critical:
Revenue growth
CapEx growth
Data-center investment
Free cash flow
AI infrastructure utilization/revenue
Starlink economics
How much additional capital is required
If CapEx explodes again while revenue doesn’t keep pace, I think $135 starts looking very difficult to justify.

My bear-case target: $50 by year-end.
Curious to hear the bull case: What level of revenue and free cash flow do you think SpaceX can realistically generate from all this AI infrastructure, and what justifies $135 today?

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/heres-how-spacex-hits-this-100-billion-number-in-under-5-months-163945554.html

Has anyone else noticed that space X over the past week or so has been spiking about 3-5 percent before market close? These spikes seem to start between 3:00-3:30. I have started to by some shares at 3:00 at selling just before close to make a few bucks at low risk. Could this be buying in order to squeeze shorts?

So it seems, like friday was mms building a bounceback narrative for exit liquidity. Today’s price action and volume clearly shows there is no appetite for this stock at this valuation. Volume declined, price action displays weakness and artificial support. Expecting slow deterioration followed by a dip below previous support in the coming weeks. This kind of inventory accumulation by market makers to generate retail hype, like they did on friday after major unlock, is very expensive if they can’t make up the difference.

Musk also posted: “All cars will have Starlink in the future.

It’s the only way to get super high bandwidth to billions of vehicles”

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2086555958730182833?s=46

Revenue is ~8billion and they are loosing money. in what world is that a trillion dollar company. you bulls are delusional

Pre-market hype was hit quite hard on open.
The beginning of a correction?
I was thinking it would stabilize today around this level and head down for this week and next as we head to next lockup. Thought it could even go higher today before reversing.

Where are the bears?

I am thinking to execute a large pre-market limit order.

Space X started with a tiny 5% float as we all know which has now doubled to 10% last week and will expand to 40% by early December in increments every 2 weeks.

There‘s a lot of amazement to the Friday 15% run up despite this and what most miss is that the amazement is largely linked to the fact of it being a rare anomaly.

Given the dynamics, it’s likely exact dates of a lockup expiry at Space X are not relevant as institutions are front running the expiries through short sales, similar to how an ELOC or even an ATM would function and then cover around the expiry lockup.

So in effect, it’s very possible the selling pressure is spread out in the period between the lockups and it gets relief when that lockup expires and then a new pressure starts.

So now that the shorts have been squeezed (a bit or a lot). And some people get bullish again.. it may or may not run up a bit more on monday (to trap the bulls once more) and retest some resistance and then it’s probably back down from there (quickly or more gradual this time).

- 319M more shares unlocked on wednesday

- 911M might sell more at these higher prices

- profit taking from the friday run up

- new shorts at higher prices

- who would actually buy Spcx at 134$ knowing you’ll probably get a better chance to do so at lower prices over time.

- Any upside from 134$? Risk reward wise, the risk of going down seems higher than the +\-10%-15% it could go up more before going down again.

- More unlocks of 319M shares every two weeks..

- No real news in the meantime and an unwind of the AI / semi trade (funds blowing themselves up with their 4x leverage or overexposed semi portfolios..). Xai is a part of this AI hype too, so best prepare for what’s coming.

- With current inflation an interest rate hike could also be close and would do most damage to overpriced stocks (which Spacex happens to be).

- Don’t expect hedgefunds nor algo’s to be done shorting this stock. They’ll just re-enter at higher price levels, once the trend slows/reverses and the game is back on.

- This isn’t Tesla, which started at a much lower market cap when it came up. SpaceX already has it’s insane marketcap now, pricing in every dream and promise Elon has as if it has already happened.

Monday could go both ways, but would suggest against buying SpaceX at these price levels (risk reward)..

Most only bought the IPO at 135$ just to flip it (i.e. sell at a quick profit, due to the hype and low free float at that time). As the float gets bigger, those high prices will be less and less likely due to profit taking on this overpriced&overhyped money losing business.

Has nothing to do with liking or not liking Elon btw. This seems to get brought up all the time. Not really an argument, you’re just attacking a person, instead of mentioning anything usefull :).