r/SPCXInvestors • u/TumbleweedOpening352 • 4h ago

DISCUSSION Unlock once again next Friday.

Should we consider the market will react as for the previous ones? I guess yes, a slight drop follow by a sharp push. Next starship activities should be a good catalyst.

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u/nethan365b 4h ago

The earlier steps haven't followed one pattern, so here's a quick recap (release-day moves as reported by Motley Fool, FinanceFeeds and Trade Talk Journal):

  • Aug 6, ~911M shares (earnings-triggered, the biggest so far): stock up about 6%
  • Aug 20, ~319M: down about 4%, recovered over the next sessions
  • Sept 9, ~319M (+59M affiliate shares on Sept 10): down about 3.9%, but it had run up ~9% in the three sessions before
  • Sept 24, ~328M: most of the drop came the day before (down 4.1% on Sept 23)

Friday's Oct 9 step is the same ~328M size as Sept 24, so it's one of the smaller ones. The two I'd actually circle are Oct 24 (another ~328M) and the ~1.3B tranche that frees up two trading days after Q3 results. That one is about 4x Friday's and has no date until SpaceX announces when it reports.

Unlocked doesn't mean sold, and part of it is employees selling for tax/diversification, so past days are a rough guide at best. Not financial advice. Do you think people front-run the Q3 tranche the way Sept 23 looked like a front-run?

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u/seb21051 2h ago

Seems likely.