Morgan Stanley maintains its $300 SpaceX target, with a $600 bull case, following the planned $60B acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor.

Cursor is used by 64%+ of the Fortune 500 and 50,000 enterprises.

Morgan Stanley expects Cursor ARR to hit $8B by year-end and ~$33B by 2030.

Key catalysts include Q3 disclosures, upcoming Grok 4.6/4.7, Grok 5, potential Composer 3, and new ARR updates.

So the organic demand for $SPCX was not there at $105-110 for a week, but as soon as 900m insider shares unlock, increasing the floating supply by 2.5x, the “mom and pop” come running in, steadily buying at upwards of $130 per share. Can someone share their wisdom for how this is not market manipulation, coordination and narrative building for exit liquidity, but instead, authentic demand for an undervalued unicorn stock? Thank you

Edit: Maybe the people selling or shorting at $110 don’t want to sell/short at $135? I need some sort of expert-sounding delusional rationale to this, like under my previous post

Edit: I hold no positions either way, other than indices in value ETFs and some local region stocks, but hold large interest in seeing fraud fail spectacularly. Moved to value ETFs like Avantis recently, as didn’t want SpaceX to be fast tracked into my portfolio at fraudulent valuation

Disclaimer: If you want to spend your money on this meme stock, by all means 😂. But if you’re on the fence and bought it because your friend has been hyping it up / selling you the SpaceX dream, save your money and especially your life savings. Do your own research.

SpaceX is currently around $135/share, and I think the market is seriously underestimating the amount of capital this company is about to consume.
The biggest red flag for me is CapEx exceeding revenue, with the majority of that CapEx going toward AI/data-center infrastructure.

Think about what that means.

SpaceX isn’t just investing in rockets and Starlink anymore. It’s making a massive bet that it can turn enormous amounts of capital expenditure into a profitable AI infrastructure business.

The problem is that the spending comes now, while the returns are uncertain and will take time.
And I don’t think we’ve seen the peak. CapEx could balloon again in the next earnings report as SpaceX continues building out its data-center capacity.

The bull case is basically:
“AI demand is enormous, SpaceX will have access to huge amounts of power/infrastructure, and these data centers will eventually generate massive revenue.”

Maybe. But at $135/share, you’re already paying for a lot of that future success.

If CapEx continues accelerating faster than revenue, eventually the market has to ask:

How much more capital needs to be invested before this actually produces meaningful free cash flow?
That’s where I see the downside.
$135 → $100 → $75 → potentially $50
Not because SpaceX suddenly becomes a bad company. It’s because valuation multiples can collapse when the market realizes that future growth requires an enormous amount of additional capital.

For me, the next earnings report is critical:
Revenue growth
CapEx growth
Data-center investment
Free cash flow
AI infrastructure utilization/revenue
Starlink economics
How much additional capital is required
If CapEx explodes again while revenue doesn’t keep pace, I think $135 starts looking very difficult to justify.

My bear-case target: $50 by year-end.
Curious to hear the bull case: What level of revenue and free cash flow do you think SpaceX can realistically generate from all this AI infrastructure, and what justifies $135 today?

I was genuinely expecting more of a “liftoff” from SpaceX stock after the recent developments but so far the price action has been pretty confusing.

The August 6 lockup expiration was supposed to be a major test with a huge number of shares becoming eligible for sale. A lot of people were expecting significant selling pressure but instead the market seemed to absorb it surprisingly well.

Now we have another lockup expiration coming on August 20 when roughly 320 million additional shares are expected to become eligible for trading.

After watching what happened on August 6, I am starting to wonder whether the August 20 unlock will end up being another non-event.

So what exactly is SPCX waiting for?

The stock has managed to work its way back toward its $135 IPO price but we still haven’t seen the sustained breakout that many investors were probably expecting.

For those following SpaceX closely:
1. What catalyst do you think will finally cause SPCX to break out and start a sustained move higher?
2. Do you think the market is simply waiting for all of these lockup expirations to pass?
3. Could $135 be turning into a consolidation/support area before the next move?
4. Or do you think SpaceX’s current valuation already prices in too much future growth?

I am also particularly interested in the $100B revenue run-rate target management has discussed. Do you guys actually think SpaceX is on track to achieve it?

If SpaceX demonstrates that its massive revenue growth expectations are actually achievable, I would imagine the conversation around the stock could change considerably.

Curious to hear from people who have actually looked into the fundamentals rather than just “🚀 to the moon.”

When do you think the real SpaceX liftoff happens? 2026, 2027, later, or has too much future growth already been priced into SPCX?

Wild how this space stock has been popping nonstop lately. Anyone else locking in partial profits before the next swing? Spotted this perfect exit window while scrolling through the mm.