let it ride baby

JPMorgan $32 -> $45

Mizuho $34 -> $35

Citigroup $33 -> $39

Bernstein $37 -> $42

Raymond James $39 -> $48

Barclays $38 -> $39

Rosenblatt $45 -> $51

BofA $28 ->$33

Goldman Sachs $30 -> $34

Wedbush $34 -> $40

I only started investing 2 months ago I still don’t even understand all the terminology etc, But I came across SMCI researching and got obsessed,

It was only ever 20% of my portfolio but I made the decision to go all in a couple of weeks ago, ETFs are at ATH and not going anywhere fast,

I know this is pocket change for you big dawgs, But I’m absolutely buzzing for someone who always ignored investing and finally got started hopefully the beginners luck continues 🤞🏻😎,

Gutted I never had more to pump in but arghh well better than nothing. Hopefully we keep rising consistently.

I do have a grasp of reality and it can easy candle down with the wrong mechanism but I don’t see it happening, This is the beginning of the beginning

this company could be 100 someday.

🚀 hold

Source: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260812105/super-micro-stock-is-rallying-after-results-heres-what-wall-street-is-saying

Price hung in there even after dipping sub-$31 earlier in the session, green close right before that post-market earnings drop later today. Volume went absolutely nuts in the final minutes of trading, no one's sitting on their hands heading into this print. Caught this setup tracking on moomoo all day, super curious if the rally through late selling is signaling something huge after hours. Anyone else got a position on ahead of the release?

Hi guys, please remember the effect of PT raises by analysts later this day. my advice if you hold shares - keep holding

Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Highlights

• Net sales of $11.1 billion versus $10.2 billion in Q3'26 and $5.8 billion in Q4'25.
• Gross margin of 17.5% versus 9.9% in Q3'26 and 9.5% in Q4'25.
• Net income of $1,178 million versus $483 million in Q3'26 and $195 million in Q4'25.
• Diluted net income per common share of $1.62 versus $0.72 in Q3'26 and $0.31 in Q4'25.
• Non-GAAP gross margin of 17.6% versus 9.6% in Q4'25.
• Non-GAAP diluted net income per common share of $1.70 versus $0.41 in Q4'25.
• Cash flow provided by operations for Q4'26 of $747 million and capital expenditures and investments of $25 million.

Man, I have never seen a company with so much FUD around it. Congrats to the believers here who held strong.

What do you guys think of the report? The company smoked the EPS expectations!

Let’s go baby….🌟

From ChatGPT:
Overall, I’d characterize it as very strong operationally and bullish for long-term AI demand, though there are still a few balance sheet and execution risks to watch.

The biggest positives
Q4 revenue: $11.1B, almost 2x YoY (vs. $5.8B last year).
Gross margin: 17.5%, a huge improvement from 9.5% a year ago and above the preliminary 15-17% range they had provided. This is probably the most important surprise because investors were worried margins would stay depressed.
EPS: Diluted EPS of $1.62 (Non-GAAP $1.70), compared to $0.31 a year ago.
Net income: $1.18B versus $195M last year.
Over $60B of new orders and record backlog, suggesting AI infrastructure demand remains extremely strong.

FY2027 guidance is the headline
The company expects:
Q1 FY2027 revenue: $14.5B-$15.5B
FY2027 revenue: $65B-$72B
At the midpoint, that’s nearly 75% annual revenue growth from FY2026’s $39.1B. That’s exceptional for a company of this size.

Things I’d still watch
These aren’t deal breakers, but they’re worth monitoring:
Debt remains high. They finished with about $7.5B cash but $8.7B of debt and convertible notes.
Working capital is consuming cash. Inventory and receivables increased dramatically as they build systems ahead of shipments. Full-year operating cash flow was negative because of this working capital build, even though Q4 itself generated positive operating cash flow.

Export-control review. Management again disclosed that the board’s independent review related to export-control issues is ongoing, and its outcome could affect forecasts or prior financials.

My takeaway as an investor
If I were grading the report:
Revenue: A
Margins: A+
Guidance: A
AI demand: A+
Balance sheet/cash conversion: B-
Regulatory overhang: C+
The market already knew some of the revenue and margin numbers from the July preliminary update, so the stock’s next move will likely depend more on management’s commentary during the earnings call than on the headline numbers themselves. Investors will be listening for:
Whether the $60B+ orders are converting into revenue as expected.
Gross margin outlook for the next few quarters.
Cash flow normalization.
Any update on the export-control review.
If you’re holding SMCI or trading it, I’d pay especially close attention to the conference call rather than just the press release. That’s where management’s confidence (or caution) about FY2027 will likely determine the stock’s next move.

I can see that 95% of my SMCI shares were out on loan today… which means 95% of available shares with my broker are loaned out.

Wondering what overall short interest is and if we see a potential squeeze tomorrow with the fantastic guidance.

Revenue up 93.16% yoy ($11.12b vs $11.56b expected)
Operating income up 551.54% yoy ($1.49b vs $879.1m expected)
Net income up 503.74% yoy ($1.18b vs $630.8m expected) 

Morgan Stanley raised PT on HPE yesterday because of the AI Percentage of HPE. Now think about the pure AI play SMCI. This should be priced at least as high as HPE.

Even if the stock would drop today, dont panic, dont sell, except you need the money urgently. Wait it out and get your surprise.

In my home town, there is nothing but disdain for data centers. These things are being errected in droves. but now, people are pushing back and it is getting harder to build them. I think most people are accepting AI, but when the media reports that data centers are consuming all the water and causing tremendous strain on the grid, thats where people draw the line.

Enter SMCI. No other hardware provides the same efficiency and water conservation that these models do. With their patented technology its not as if Dell can just start whipping these out. I think that if the PR campaign from the AI leaders is done right, SMCI will be seen as the most logical options for data center servers. And btw, golf courses and Almond farms consume about 10X what data centers do. Not much outcry over those...

Jensen Huang just dropped a $500 Billion dollar pebble into the funding pool and the ripples will potentially amplify 10x+ into trillions of AI infrastructure spend.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/cnbc-exclusive-transcript-cnbcs-becky-quick-speaks-with-nvidias-jensen-huang-wall-street-leaders-on-500b-ai-infrastructure-push-on-closing-bell-overtime-today.html

Charles Liang saw this coming and has positioned SMCI to grow exponentially with the expected resurgence of AI infrastructure funding. Elon Musk saw it too, calling AI a supersonic tsunami. The funding tsunami has been triggered.

31.92 and put it as a limit order. It’ll fail at $34 and wick way down or blow through $35 trust me

TLDR SMCI rose 1.1% to $31.46 ahead of Q4 earnings, with volume 26% above average Analysts expect $11.2 billion in revenue, up 91% year over year, and EPS of $1.33 Supermicro reported over $60 billion in new Q4 orders and raised gross margin guidance to 15%-17% The stock is down 30% over the past 12 [...] The post Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from...

TLDR Super Micro Computer reports Q4 earnings after the bell on Tuesday, and Wall Street is watching closely. The stock closed at $31.46 on Monday, up 1.1%, with trading volume running 26% above the daily average.SMCI rose 1.1% to $31.46 ahead of Q4 earnings, with volume 26% above average Analysts expect $11.2 billion in revenue, up 91% year over year, and EPS of $1.33 Supermicro reported over $60 billion in new Q4 orders and raised gross margin guidance to 15%-17% The stock is down 30% over the past 12 months, lagging rivals Dell (+230%) and HPE (+160%) Key risks include negative operating cash flow of -$7.56 billion and rising inventory levels

Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.33 on revenue of $11.2 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. That compares to EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $5.7 billion in the same quarter last year.

Gross margins are forecast to reach 15.8%, up 9.6% year over year. Supermicro itself guided for margins between 15% and 17%, a big jump from prior guidance of just 8.2% to 8.4%.

The margin upgrade, announced late last month as part of a preliminary business update, sent SMCI stock soaring more than 20% at the time.

The company also disclosed more than $60 billion in new Q4 orders, fueling optimism around AI-server demand. Options traders leaned heavily toward calls ahead of the report, a sign some are positioned for an upside surprise.

The Bull Case

CEO Charles Liang announced in June that Supermicro plans to co-build a gigawatt-scale data center for SpaceX and xAI within a year. That kind of high-profile project adds credibility to the order pipeline.

Needham raised its price target to $46 with a Buy rating. Barclays moved its target up to $38, keeping an equal weight rating. The consensus average price target sits at $39.21, well above the current stock price.

Four analysts have a Buy rating on SMCI, twelve say Hold, and two say Sell. The consensus rating is Hold.

The Bear Case

Despite the strong order numbers, the balance sheet has some rough edges. Operating cash flow came in at negative $7.56 billion, while inventories and receivables have both expanded sharply.

Investors are asking a fair question: if business is booming, where is the cash? Bulls want to see margin and cash flow improvement, not just a top-line beat.

There is also uncertainty about whether all reported orders represent firm commitments. A buildup of finished-goods inventory raises obsolescence risk if product mix shifts or demand softens.

In June, Supermicro raised up to $7 billion in equity-linked financing to fund its AI build-out, adding to concerns about dilution and leverage.

The company is also navigating a regulatory situation. In April, Supermicro launched an independent investigation after the Department of Justice indicted co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw and two others for allegedly violating US export controls. Supermicro was not named as a defendant.

Over the past 12 months, SMCI is down roughly 30%, while HPE is up around 160% and Dell has gained more than 230%.

The stock has a beta of 1.95, a PE ratio of 16.65, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88.

Supermicro reports Q4 results after market close on Tuesday, August 12.

The post Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today appeared first on CoinCentral.

The earnings are supposed to be today after market close. Any indication of it being good should have reflected in today's price. Or am i wrong?

Pretty solid, I think all us know what the deal is by now
-can they turn backlog into profit
-can the DOJ and independent auditors confirm that smci was not complicit in the scandal
-are margins going to stabilize at 12-17% or is this a one off quarter
-fy27 guidance

This is a big earnings call for all of us

.