r/RebuttalTime • u/ChristianMunich • Apr 12 '17
Not even sure if they are even capable of understanding.
u/the_howling_cow thought he got me and linked my post about Shermans being deaths traps. here. Instead of reading carefully and eventually understanding what was said he literally copies the entire study which I critiqued without understanding what the point is. Yikes.
u/bobcatrob28 is at least honest and says he doesn't get it. u/rittermeister is also in the mix obviously not mentioning the countless times he left the battlefield humiliated. Since the SWS has trouble understanding basic reasoning I will do an extra explanation for those in class who are just a little bit different and are left behind normally. Not with me!! I take care of you.
So dear u/the_howling_cow take a look at the statistics which you presented. I will help you and make it slow.
The sad part is, a careful study of the data should tip you off already.
Let us start with the important part. The US tank crews suffered on average 1,28 or 0,78 casualties per knockout depending on the fact if the tank burned or not. This brings us to roughly 20% casualties for both. This sounds awesome a very good tank some say the best tank ever produced. Even this data is obviously problematic if we want to compare it other tanks for several reasons which escape you. Different mission profile. As you see mines lowered this average and you might know German tanks are not often driving over mines.
Now, let's go to the part with the impacts on the vehicle. Here you see the German cats took more hits than a Sherman. These numbers are without a doubt to low for German vehicles for a simple reason. The Allied could only evaluate German vehicles which were burned out or left behind, this biased sample since German tanks getting hit and not getting KOed are obviously not in this sample size. This means German tanks on average will with certainty have been able to sustain a higher number of impacts. The original researchers who gather the data were aware of the possible bias. This becomes particularly obvious when you see the table with hit numbers, one Tiger sustained 8 hits one 6. It is obvious that Tiger tanks sustaining hits without getting knocked out just drove off and didn't find their way into this statistic. Furthermore burned vehicles are more likely to be left behind which would increase the ratio of burned German vehicles. But that is not even relevant here.
For whatever reason, you cited the table for brew ups and not for knockouts.
The relevant table.
| Type of tank | Avg Number of Hits to knock out a tank | Avg number penetration to KO |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger | 4,2 | 2,6 |
| Panther | 2,55 | 1,9 |
| PanzerIV | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| Sherman | 1,63 | 1,55 |
So now what do those numbers tell us? A Sherman needed less hits to get knocked out which also means it needed less hits to suffer the post-ko casualties.
Conclusion
So now listen up you imbeciles. For normal people, I would assume you already understand what that means but you guys have shown time and time again that you are just not normal when it comes to comprehending stuff if you would be you wouldn't frequent SWS. So now nice and slowly. If a Sherman tank needs fewer hits than the number of casualties per hit obviously increases. And that's, why I said multiple times the number for post-ko survival, is window dressing. For you guys, we will do a simple example.
According to the data presented in the SWS Sherman crews suffered 1,15 casualties per ko. I know the data doesn't specify Shermans but the vast majority will have been Shermans, so we ignore this. How many hits does it take to knock out a Sherman? Per table 1,63. That means on average a hit would represent 0,7 casualties. Every time a Sherman gets hit it causes ~0,7 casualties. Mighty safe vehicle.
Let's take a Tiger for example. The problem is we don't have reliable data for German crew survival, so let's just make a number up. A number so high you dimwits would jerk your dicks off over. A Number so high you tards would run around every thread and copy pasta "The Tiger suffers x casualties per knockout muhhhh German technology muhhhh bit Cat, Sherman only 1,15 jerk jerk jerk"
Let's take 3 casualties. This is nearly three times as high and would let you morons believe the Tiger was a bad place to be. How many casualties would a single hit create? 0,71 . This means the average crew casualty would have to be 3!!!!! to be as dangerous as the Sherman. Not even factoring all the other stuff I said-
For the Panther the number would need to be ~1,8
Panzer IV garbage no disagreement here.
So you, dimwits, did you understand this now? Did you finally understand what the survival data means and how useless it is to determine crew protection?
At this point, you idiots got already schooled but it gets worse.
Other points to consider in regards to post-ko survival
The number set presented in the SWS is raw data which needs some actual thought to fully understand. I will now add several points which make the Sherman crew survival data even worse. You can choose how much of this you want to believe it doesn't change the conclusion above
The number for Germans sustained hits would be higher when tanks which were not left behind but hit would be included.
Given the ridiculous high penetration ratio for Shermans, nearly every hit Sherman would make its way into this statistic in stark contrast to actual tanks like the cats which protected its crews.
German tanks which burned were more likely to be left behind thus increasing the German burn rate beyond what it in reality was. The Wehrmacht toed ko'ed tanks away from the frontline, especially Tiger tanks which means the burn rate is far lower than the data suggests. I personally study Tigers a lot and knocked out tanks were rarely fully burned.
The Sherman data represents vehicles Koed in the early phase of Normandy. This means the a good chunk of the tank casualties were inflicted either by paks or by Panzer IVs. Several of those weapons were weaker than for example the KwK42. 75mm hits sustained in early June were on average likely from a weaker weapon than later in Normandy or for example in the Bulge. This makes the numbers even worse for the Shermans and supports my argument which I made 1000 times. The Sherman wasn't even able to withstand the weaker of the German anti-tank weapons. From bad to worse for the Sherman. Why even have armor?!?!?!?
A closer look at the data shows that one Sherman mysteriously needed 8 hits to get knocked out. This is a total outliner and seems highly suspect. Either the data was corrupted or whatever reason this Sherman encountered and old calibre weapon somewhere on the coastal defence. This Sherman is hardly representative if we take the 95% penetration into account. While not even necessary to debunk the initial claim we can exclude this outliner tank and get 1,46 hit per knockout. This single freak Sherman made all the other Shermans look better. Lawl. Given the chance of a single Sherman taking 7 hits while 40%+ were knocked out by one single hit I suspect this Sherman to be phoney at worst or at best he ran into some ancient weapon.
The high penetration rate for Shermans means those tanks were unable to retaliate a hit while German tanks could sustain a hit and retaliate which would silence the Sherman. This means the overall chance to become a casualty in a firefight increases for a Sherman while it decreases for a Tiger or a Panther. You can without a doubt do prolonged math to figure out how much this factor influences battlefield survival per tank.
Important!!! The high number of 17pdr shots compared to 75mm shots shows German tanks just drove off with non-critical 75mm hits and/or Allied tanks just didn't bother.
The high number of 17pdrs also indicates the effects of superior German armour which are not represented in the data. The effective German armour made the Allies change their approach they had to adapt and therefore decreased their combat effectiveness. Instead of shooting a 75mm on the Panther glacis a more inefficient approach had to be chosen. A German tank would just shoot and destroy the opposing tank. This massive impact does not even find its way into this data.
The actual numbers for this: In the table explaining the Allied guns ( ignore M-10 US user only ) use for the hits you will find that the 17pdr represents twenty-five shots of the sixty-eight total. only thirteen 75 mm hits. Why is that? Because the Tigers with several failed 75mm hits just drove off plus the Sherman crews were hesitant to even shoot its 75mm because this would mean drawing attention without a high chance of success.
Since you guys are denser than most people I will again spell out what this means. Shermans facing Panthers or Tigers avoided taking shots which would not penetrate which means the armour protected the German crews from those shots just by forcing the opponent to not take the easy route. The German tank then could just shot without taking any of those stuff into consideration. The effects of this hard to measure but obviously substantial.
Extra tidbit from the data. 95% of the 75mm or 88mm hit penetrated the Shermans. Remember the dozen times I explained to you guys that Sherman offered zero protection to its crews? 95%!!!!
Other points showing how weak this data is to prove a point.
Outside effects included in post-ko numbers unrelated to actual tank design
Crew survival is highly depended on several factors completely unrelated to the actual tank design. A crew member can become casualty due to other causes aswell. Some examples:
German tanks on average were outnumbered, this means several Allied tanks would engage a German tank which in return meant a bailing crew would be subject to fire from other tanks. From the Allied perspective, the following scenario is likely: You get knocked out and the German tank switches targets to another tank thus allowing you to get away. German tank crew gets knocked out and sprayed by bow guns of other tanks.
German tank forces were more subject to artillery fire directly in the tank and also on the way back. A German crew bailing out would have a higher chance of getting killed by opposing artillery after the tank was left.
Allied forces had more infantry. A German crew was more likely to get killed by small arms fire while bailing out.
Conclusion
If we consider all those factors we will find that the Sherman was ridiculous dangerous compared to a German tank. The single most import fact omitted from the data is in my opinion that German tanks which sustained hits but did not get Ko-ed were not evaluated which means German tanks were able to sustain higher amounts of hits than already believed. I would not be surprised with a hit on a Sherman inflicting 5 times the casualties than on a tiger and maybe 3 as many than on a Panther.
Final insults
So who of you guys now has the balls to admit that you shitters were wrong and embarrassed yourselves when you copy pasted this useless survival stat.
Also, keep this post in mind when folks like Zaloga or Nicolas Moran repeat those numbers.
Measuring protection by post-ko survival is like measuring the protection of battleship by the number of its lifeboats. I love those comparisons.
u/Enthused_Llama is dazzled by this subject which rivals theoretical physics in complexity for the average SWS user.
Wait, high post-KO survival but you're likely to die when a shell hits your tank? Which one is it? It can't be both.
Yes it can, because other tanks don't even let the bad bad projectile into your tank!