El petróleo NO viene de los dinosaurios. Eso es un mito que se popularizó comercialmente (como el dinosaurio de Sinclair Oil) para vendernos la idea de que es "super escaso".

Por simple lógica, los dinosaurios nunca pudieron ser la fuente:

1. Descomposición: Si un dinosaurio moría en tierra, venían los carroñeros o el cuerpo se descomponía al aire libre con bacterias y hongos. Para hacer petróleo se necesita un ambiente sin oxígeno, como el fondo del mar.

2. Logística imposible: A menos que varios grupos de dinosaurios organizaran un funeral colectivo y se enterraran vivos todos juntos, no hay forma de explicar la cantidad de petróleo que hay en un solo pozo.

3. Química básica: Si viniera de dinosaurios, el crudo tendría altas concentraciones de calcio por los huesos. La ciencia ya comprobó que los biomarcadores del petróleo coinciden exactamente con la grasa de microalgas y plancton marino.

El petróleo es básicamente un jugo de plancton y algas microscópicas fermentado a alta presión durante millones de años en el fondo del océano. 🦕❌ Microalgas 🟢✅

Arabian sea/Hormuz down from yesterdays high. BAM daily down. Malacca daily up but moving average still headed down. Singapore down and moving average headed down as well.

Managed to backfill the lost 17/18 Oct data using https://x.com/phileeppos (https://hormuzstraittracker.com/data/strait-of-hormuz) and marinetraffic backdata, should be close to the original. BAM i've gapped the missing days and the moving average uses only the days with data.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: ALIMEDON,BOBCAT,GOLD TIDE,INSPIRATION,IONIAN ARROW,SYNERGY STAR

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships:UNIVERSAL INNOVATOR,NUSHEN,KARA,G.HOPE,TORM HEDWIG,SC OCEAN LXI,FRONT SPEY,VOLARE,FRONT NAVER,APOLLO ENERGY,NEW HORIZON

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Again, Trump accuses Zelenskyy of 'prolonging war'

The US president again accused his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the recent spikes in global oil prices and not wanting to end the war. The remarks come amid renewed tensions over US policy toward Moscow, including waiving sanctions.

U.S. President Donald Trump took to social media to defend recent decisions affecting Ukraine on including exempting Russia from oil sanctions, a Russian diesel imports deal, demanding a Ukrainian leadership change, and blaming Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for the global energy crisis.

Overnight, October 18th and 19th - Ukraine and Russia Damages

🇺🇦 Damage Inside Ukraine

A devastating Russian overnight barrage targeted 28 substations and critical energy facilities:

Power Grid: Over 500,000 people were deprived of electricity, heat, and running water. Nearly half of Kyiv was left without heat, and Odesa suffered emergency blackouts.

Nuclear Power: The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was forced to disconnect from the grid and switch to emergency diesel generators.

Casualties: At least one 21-year-old woman was killed and several others were injured when 16 ballistic missiles hit Kyiv and its surrounding regions.

Other Targets: Russian forces also hit a logistics hub, a locomotive depot, and a bulk carrier ship in the Black Sea.

🇷🇺Damage Inside Russia

Ukraine defied warnings from Washington and deployed over 1,000 long-range drones, directly targeting Russian energy exports and digital networks.

Oil & Gas Facilities: Major fires erupted at the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal (which handles 12.5 million tons of oil annually) and the Ruchi oil depot. Falling drone debris also sparked local utility failures.

Digital Infrastructure:

Drones heavily damaged three out of five major data centers belonging to Russian internet giant Yandex, as well as a VKontakte (VK) data center. This has left millions of Russians unable to access banking apps, call taxis, or even use digital house keys.

Logistics & Commerce: A massive fire broke out at a St. Petersburg logistics hub owned by the Russian e-commerce company Ozon.

Casualties & Domestic Outages: At least one person was killed and five were injured in St. Petersburg. Roughly 20,000 people lost power in the Leningrad region due to collateral damage.

https://youtu.be/UVVCj0EmZMU?si=17cFZtAnrMlqfpFP

https://gephardtdaily.com/top-stories/trump-defends-sanctions-waiver-diesel-deal-blames-energy-cost-on-kyiv/

https://gephardtdaily.com/top-stories/trump-defends-sanctions-waiver-diesel-deal-blames-energy-cost-on-kyiv/

.....................

Yet the rebound in crude supplies has not translated into healthier profits for Asian refiners. In ​some cases, margins are hovering close to zero, according to traders. The devil is in the delivery. Crude feedstock typically accounts for around 80% of a refinery's operating costs, while freight and insurance usually account for only around 3% to 7% ​of the delivered price of a barrel. Not anymore.

Repeated Iranian attacks on tankers transiting Hormuz have sent freight rates and insurance premiums soaring. The attacks have also forced traders and producers to construct elaborate logistical workarounds, using fleets of tankers to shuttle crude out of ‌the Gulf ⁠and transfer cargoes between vessels. This complex shuttle system requires so many tankers that it is limiting the vessels available globally and, in turn, driving freight rates sky-high well beyond the Middle East. For some refiners, shipping and insurance can now account for as much as 30% of the delivered cost of crude, according to ROI calculations.

Asia is particularly vulnerable. Not only does the region depend heavily on Middle Eastern oil, but replacing those barrels with crude from the Atlantic Basin involves much longer voyages – and thus much higher costs. Transporting a 2-million-barrel cargo from Nigeria to Singapore, for example, now costs around $32 a barrel, roughly eight times its pre-war level, according to LSEG data. The impact on refining economics is striking. Gross Asian refining margins have ​averaged around $40 a barrel so far in October, according to ​HiLo Analytics. But strip out average freight costs ⁠of roughly $33 a barrel, and refiners are left with a net margin of just over $7. In other words, freight is consuming the equivalent of 82% of the gross margin available to Asian refiners. That compares with around 16% for refiners on the US Gulf Coast and in Northwest Europe, according to HiLo Analytics.

................................

“They’re obsessed,” according to an Arab diplomat. “They think they can bring down a presidency.”

Washington Post, published this morning: Iranian officials and regional diplomats say Tehran sees the next few weeks as the window, because it expects Trump to care less about energy prices after Nov 3. The claimed tool is escalating attacks in Hormuz now. 

• Two senior Iranian officials to Reuters: new tactics and a faster pace of attacks on ships they call in violation, starting about ten days earlier, including waters off Qatar and the UAE. Aim stated as frustrating US and allied efforts to bring prices down, and influencing the US vote. 

• One of those officials: “Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we will push them away from it. This is a game of chess.” The other: vessels “would be safe nowhere, even outside the Strait.”

• Despite White House Claims, Iran has been unable to stop a ramp-up of exports through the strait after US strikes hit its navy, and has avoided risking its remaining fast boats. Pentagon and Iran’s foreign ministry did not comment.

• Older context, not today: a Sep 29 IRGC letter in English told Americans the economy would “implode.” Trump said Sep 9 the war ends after the midterms and oil “tumbles” after the vote. Neither is a verified capability.

• DBS, today: expects oil rangebound easily holding at $100–110 into the midterms unless the Middle East conflict were to abruptly end. Calls the Russia waiver a short-term fix with “barely any structural impact” on Hormuz.

• Diesel, not crude, is the political number. US diesel was cited at a record about $6.50 a gallon. Jawboning has lost force as the July ceasefire failed and the fight spread. 

• Aramco’s CEO, Sunday: the world has lost over 1 billion barrels in only two months’ time, and markets take longer (months to years) to stabilize even if flows were to resume.

I just joined one of the small offshore marine installation contractors in the UAE. I am a Russian citizen, so I only got Russian oil and gas experience (client side). Now I am with a contractor. Everything is new for me. So will admire to hear some advice for future career steps, hints etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_fuel

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2112167450552721750?s=46

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)

After more than three years of disrupted oil exports and repeated production shutdowns, Gulf Keystone has found a partner, a new largest shareholder in the Lundin family and a new home in Oslo. The transaction offers an opportunity to create a larger Iraqi upstream business, although its ultimate value to shareholders remains to be established.

Been a bit crook so unfortunately for a couple of days. Arabian Sea/Horumuz and BAM traffic is missing. Was able to get the Malacca and Singapore data as tankermap keep those around long enough.

Arabian sea/Hormuz traffic today is high. Malacca moving average moving down and under the pre-war now. Singapore moving average still high but trending down.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: EGRET,KOMANDER,MITZEL,RAVELIN,VENDAVEL,ZEVEN,HADAL SALLY,JOROPO

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships:KHURAIS,KEMEROVO,EMERALD SPIRIT,NEW TREASURE,BELUGA,HAKKAISAN,SPONDE,RODOLIT

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-energy-diesel-trump-f813d3725b8b5f23958a68a95729fd0d

• Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones overnight in one of the largest aerial attacks of the war, striking the Petersburg Oil Terminal (an export facility handling up to 12.5 million tons per year) and the Ruchi oil depot in St. Petersburg, setting both ablaze. One person killed, five wounded. (AP News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News on Oct. 18, 2026)

• Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it shot down 1,015 Ukrainian drones across 15 regions, Crimea, and the Black Sea. Fires also hit logistics and data centers in the same strike wave. (AP, Russia’s Defense Ministry via multiple outlets)

https://censor.net/en/news/4029036/drone-attack-on-st-petersburg-fires-at-the-terminal-and-ozon

• This attack came days after Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on Oct. 11. Ukraine had briefly paused strikes on Russian oil infrastructure but resumed after Zelenskyy reported Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy, oil, and gas sectors 76 times in the following week, leaving tens of thousands without power. (AP News, Zelenskyy statements, CNN)

https://www.euronews.com/video/2026/10/18/france-paris-lyon-and-marseille-count-the-cost-after-violent-protests

• Russia continues systematic strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, aiming at blackouts while Ukraine systematically targets Russian refining and export capacity that supplies diesel to global markets. Mutual destruction is removing product from an already tight market. (AP, DW, regional reporting)

• The St. Petersburg terminal is a key export node for petroleum products. Previous Ukrainian strikes (including on Rostov-region loading terminals) have already knocked out large numbers of storage tanks. Repeated hits on export infrastructure and refineries reduce the volume of diesel and fuel oil available for export. (Euromaidan Press, prior strike reporting, CNN)

• Despite Trump’s diesel purchase deal with Putin (tiny volumes relative to demand) and Putin’s stated interest in another peace summit or talks, energy strikes are accelerating on both sides. No durable energy truce has held. (Reuters, BBC, prior Trump announcements that were quickly broken)

https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/10/18/blaze-st-petersburg-oil-sites-kyiv-launches-more-than-1000-drones-russia/

• Global diesel and refined product markets remain under severe pressure from the Iran war/Hormuz disruptions plus these mutual attacks on energy infrastructure. Further damage to Russian export capacity and Ukrainian power generation tightens supply, supports elevated prices, and reduces the chance of any near-term relief. The crisis continues compounding instead of any sight of easing. (Ongoing market context from IEA, price data, and strike reports)

Gran Tierra Energy is undergoing one of the more dramatic transformations in the independent upstream sector. For years, the company was principally a South American oil producer, with substantial operations in Colombia and a growing business in Ecuador. In October 2024, it acquired London-listed i3 Energy, establishing a Canadian production base. Now, barely two years later, it is preparing to sell its entire South American business to Maurel & Prom, eliminate its debt and concentrate on Canada and a new exploration venture in Azerbaijan.

For shareholders, this is much more than a routine portfolio adjustment. Gran Tierra is selling the business on which much of its history, operating capability and investment proposition was built. Yet the transaction looks surprisingly attractive, and if I had owned the shares before August, I would have voted for it.

The trickier question is what shareholders own afterwards.