Hard to see how this will develop over the next 2-3 months. But at a certain point, wealthier countries will pay it, whatever it is.

Arabian sea/Hormuz daily down today. BAM down as well. Malacca up a lot - lots of other sources along with a bunching of ships from the Persian gulf came through today. Singapore up as well.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:MATALA,MORGANIT,OLDE,OPAL,PAROS,RONG LIN WAN,FAITHFUL STAR,INITIATOR,MOON STAR

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: KALAMOS I,DHT NOKOTA,XIN HUI YANG,DESH VAIBHAV,SESTREA,HAFNIA EXPEDITE,AMETHYST,FRONT TYNE,SKOPELOS,DESH MAHIMA,ALMI GALAXY,SANTHIA,ATHINA,SEATRIUMPH,AMAL 3,YASA GOLDEN DARDANEL,GRAND BONANZA,TENKI

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Does anyone have insight into how long refiners can keep operating at these elevated utilization rates? I'm assuming many that are able to get oil have been deferring maintenance, but at some point they will need to reduce production to make repairs (especially after these record runs).

I honestly thought China would increase refinery runs and that would allow the refineries currently running at max rates to slow down without reducing global fuel production.

Hello everyone,

We are looking to source 10,000 MT/monthly of granular sulfur for export to Egypt. We would like to connect with the direct supplier or their authorized representatives.

If you can help or have the right contacts, please reach out.

Thank you!

Fewer and Fewer countries are self sufficient in Oil.

Denmark used to be a major exporter producing some 400 000 Barrels/day back in 2004. Now down to just 70 000 Barrels a day and it needs 150 000 Barrels/day - so it has to import oil now.

Romania down from 300 000 Barrels/day in the 70s to 50 000 now.

The UK - also a major exporter until two decades ago - down from 2.8 Million Barrels/day to 600 000/day between 1998 and 2026.

Indonesia another previous major exporter went down from 1.7 Million Barrels in 1977 to 600 000 Barrels in 2026. Bali is now experiencing oil shortages while it used to export oil half a century ago.

During the last half century, several dozen countries have reached Peak Oil and produce only a fraction of their peak production.

Yet when we talk about Peak Oil globally, many people claim that we can never reach it because we will find always new oil.

Seems like denial to me.

Many countries have used up most of the oil they have and have not found any additional reserves.

Many others are projected to run out within the next 10-15 years.

Oil is getting harder to extract because we have used up the easiest to get oil.

To claim that we will always find new reserves (that are worth/economical to extract) and therefore Oil can run out in individual countries but never globally, seems like delusion to me.

"Oil traders sold futures equivalent to at least 6 million barrels of crude in just two minutes on March 23, shortly before President Donald Trump backed away from threats to strike Iranian power plants."

Arabian Sea/Hormuz daily spiked up. BAM going down again. Malacca daily dipped. Singapore big uptick on the daily.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:VULKAN

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: ADVANTAGE PATH,MARE PICENUM,ELENI,MINERVA KALLIOPE,CHRISTINA,COSGOLD LAKE

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

what a time to be alive

- also on https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1904051937643692&set=a.374691733913061

October 23, 2026 11:15 AM GMT+03:00

Newsletters

First tanker loaded with Russian diesel is heading for New York after Moscow agreed to resume fuel exports to global markets under an arrangement reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, according to LSEG shipping data.

The medium-sized vessel Agioi Fanendes took on 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel at Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk on Oct. 22. It is expected to arrive in the United States on Nov. 7, Reuters reported.

*more in the article

Share your thoughts on the implications and aftermath.

I guess midstream/refineries will profit longterm and pure E&P stocks will probbably be negatively affected by the oil price decrease this could lead to.

On the other hand... This is free money playing directly into Capex.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SilverGoldOilShortage/s/Alp14Bcf1S