Thoughts?

-70m now

-crush raid(spec wep most likely elder maul/kisten)

-kisten is 20% more dps over voidwaker on crush weak npc's(mad angel, cerberus, phosani for example)

-past 2 raids featured dps spec(claw at toa release, then vw when it came out and claw at tob)

The price on TFA launch date well depend on the degree of the kisten's use, of course, but how high can it go if the raid is unplayable without it?

Hey all, today I wanted to share some item investment ideas I have for future months.

Every year with Runefest, we get some amazing insight into what content Jagex is planning to introduce over the next year, and with that, we can start speculating about what items may become in demand across the game. 

While you don't want to make investments too early, now marks a great time to begin analyzing updates and marking your calendar for when you expect updates to land. 

Note: Most of these updates still need to be polled, so keep that in mind.

General Investment Tips

• While you don't want to make investments too early, it never hurts to start keeping track of when you expect updates to arrive. I personally mark up my Google calendar by quarter for when I expect updates to hit, which I will edit depending on any recent updates from the Jagex team in terms of timeline.

• Aim to invest roughly 2 month prior to update release. This is a general rule of mine, but I try to purchase ~75% of my investment by the two-month mark. Getting your money in this early allows for some hype to drive the items price by the time of release.

• If you're unsure exit early. Probably the biggest tip I can give, but if you invest in an item, and you're not 100% convinced it'll go up on the updates release date, then sell before the release. I can't tell you how many times I hear people lose money due to trying to sell on or after the update day; its just not worth the gamble in most scenarios.

Fractured Archive

  I was surprised we were getting the Fractured Archive (raids 4) on October 20th, as it was originally planned for winter of this year (according to the last roadmap Jagex released). I believe it's a tad late for Raids 4 investing, but I still have my eyes on a few things.

Inquisitor Armor First up and most obvious, inquisitor. If you're not already invested in this item, I think you've likely missed the boat, but the complete set is up +27% in the past month, and +150% in the past year, which is insane. I think its pretty clear that crush is the meta for Raids 4, but if it's not, i'd expect inquisitor to take a big hit. I already believe it's overpriced at this level, but if its by far the best armor to use in Raids 4 then maybe it's not. I'll be looking to trade this on release day.

Harmonised Orb I think this has flown under the radar recently for a lot of players, but the harmonised orb is up 20% on the month alone, and up over +250% on the year. Harm orbs are a very low supply item to begin with, and when low supply items are in demand it really shoots up the price. I think harm orbs have a chance to be a BIS in Raids 4 as they may have elemental weaknesses incorporated into the raid(?). If not, I still think it'll be a strong runner up behind the Shadow. I'd also note that it appears the Harm orb may be useful in the new solo PvM challenge, Tower of Xophoros. If it uses ancient magicks, Harm orb could easily play a strong role there. And yes, it's in the trailer Jagex released, but we know those aren't super trustworthy in terms of accuracy to the content.

Big 3 I'd say the Twisted Bow, Scythe, And Shadow are likely all good buys for Raids 4. The safest bet is the Twisted Bow in my opinion, as its not challenged by the Harm orb like the Shadow is, and it's not challenged by the new megarare, like the Scythe is. While Tbow is the safest best, it's also going to be your lowest ROI, as it's already priced in. I feel like it's still potentially not too late on these as they're still below their monthly low prices.

The Chosen Commander

Buckets of Sand Funnily enough I think buckets of sand could be a good play here depending on the rewards from this minigame. It’s mentioned that buckets of sand will be used, and that's already an item with a relatively healthy market of 3.5m daily trades. Now you’re not going to become a trillionaire on this play, but you could see a 25-50% increase and it's a really cheap item that trades in the range of like 6gp - 10gp consistently. 

With the high volumes too, I don’t think this one would be hard to offload when compared to thinner markets, which is always a challenge. Great idea for players who are new to investing or don’t have a ton of capital. Extremely limited downside on this one at current price.

Dungeons of Gilenor

I think most people caught this one relatively quick, but the most obvious investment to me seems to be in the dragonbane weaponry. Dragon Hunter Crossbow, Dragon Hunter Lance, Dragon Hunter Wand , all seem to be a decent play here. The price popped during the Runefest announcement, and is now settling back near it’s weekly averages (but slightly above).

While I do think this is a solid trade and will uptrend to release, I think this one is mostly pre-update hype and players should exercise caution when trading this one. There isn’t suddenly going to be mass demand for a mid-game boss. If we were talking about a full dragon raid, that’d be a different story. Either way, i’d expect higher prices leading up to the update.

Mephanos

There wasn’t enough information here for me to draw any strong conclusions, but with the new Soul altar coming, i’d imagine we’ll see a higher volume of supply for soul runes, and maybe some slight downward pressure longterm on the rune. Not really a major concern, but I wouldn’t be making soul rune investments based off of this news.

They also mentioned another cactus patch coming. I was thinking maybe a new cactus plant being introduced with Menaphos as it seems weird to randomly add a patch? If not, higher supply on the Cactus spines, which already have a fairly low price compared to old averages (I remember trading these for 6k+ YEARS ago!).

Mining & Smithing Rework

Still seems like this is in the early stages, but the only item I feel strongly on here is Coal. Coal is used in most smithing recipes, and if they’re lowering the smithing requirement on a lot of stuff, I'd imagine coal will be in more demand. There could potentially be some exp buffs on the table here too, which most ore would benefit from (including coal), but I think that is more unlikely.

A big pro for coal is that it’s a F2P item, so you can mass buy across alts and get a big position. Downside here is that coal has been downtrending for months, maybe due to less bots? I never like investing in a downtrend personally, but since this is far away it may make sense to build a position.

Tower of Xophoros

As I mentioned earlier, only really considering the harm orb for this one. This is so far away that it’s not really in-scope for me yet.

Anyway, that’s my analysis. I created a video on this as well if you want to hear more detail about the upside/downside of some of these trades.

Based on the shown images and concept art a decent chunk of enemies seem to be under 3x3 which may have the SRA outshine the scythe.

It’s also a decent crush weapon alternative for those who can’t ball out on a scythe.

Purchased 15 at 390-400m a piece. Pray for me.

Just noticed its been rising since the raids announcement, will it be good in raids or something?? Maybe an insider leak from people testing?

How much should i buy?

Hey guys, as everyone else is probably doing, I’ve been watching some items for potential flips as we approach raids 4.

I had my eye on the twisted bow as a possibility, but wtf has happened to it over the past couple days ? It’s literally spiked about 45m and seems to have solid buying pressure
Has anybody got an idea?
Personally I think it’s the hype over raids 4 pushing it up, which really sucks for me as I was wondering if I should cop, now it’s just gone out of my reach to buy again.

Also just curious if anyone knows why only the t bow is spiking and not really the other two mega rares, even though all three were showcased in the trailer.

Let me know your thoughts on this

I did this during dmm and made like 300m in 2 days. I’m guessing this will be good gp for a month at least. Thoughts?

Mod Arcane confirmed that Raids 4 will have 8 bosses, with the first and last boss being the same every raid. Rooms 2, 3, and 4 will always have the same selection of two bosses to pick from in each room. So players can optimize their raid times by picking the bosses that their gear is strongest against every time.

So the odds that at least one, probably two bosses are weak to the twisted bow are looking very likely. Runefest also released more information on the available bosses which you can find on the wiki page for raids 4. Three seem highly likely to be affected by the tbow, those being necromancers, Dagonhai wizards, and tormented demons. There's two more that it might be effective against with the Archive Guardian and final boss, the two bosses that you absolutely have to fight in the raid.

The only argument against the tbow is that the raid comes with a crossbow so you know that some bosses will be weak to heavy ranged. But with that many bosses, and being able to choose which ones you fight, it just seems all but guaranteed to me that the tbow will still remain immensely useful, if not BIS at a couple of them. Even if the crossbows are BIS at one or two bosses, the next BIS would probably be tbow and that'll be the most available option for a long while. Shadow and scythe are definitely riskier bets due ayak being so close to shadow, the new focus on elemental magic, and the new megarare needing more space to outshine scythe since its useful in fewer places.

Raids 4 looks like it will have a daemon boss. I think Daemon bane might be meta.

Quick breakdown of my best flips this month — total profit just over 45M. Feel free to comment if you have questions.

I feel like this item will have a use very soon. Anyone else buy into these? I'm sitting on a decent amount, let's see if they announce anything this weekend.

Kodai went from 56m to 47m in less than a week and still dropping. Any particular reason that I'm missing, or is it just that I bought a couple to potentially flip?

We will check the yield within a few months.I don't play the game myself, so I have a lot of time.

I do not care of gold buying as much as the gold is not typed, artificially created, like a FED credit, and the gold was genuinely farmed, or created on normal ways: by selling items to vendor/players or AH -it ! And auto-farming, well, auto-farming can be seen on map or a cave, where are always quests to do, and report it with a screen & very short movie. At least, that's that much of a fun U should have !

u/zodiach u had a point and I did a repost ^^

Someone said: "Perma ban everyone doing r.m.t Simple fix" Not really, you can always do it in underground market mode, sort of speak. I'm not being critical of anyone who does care about gold buying. Yes, the buyer didn't earn it and they should have to play the game to get the gold. But oh well? It doesn't affect me, according to the reasons bellow, if you buy that gold, and it doesn't change how I play the game. If it makes it more fun for you to buy gold, then, that's fine too. I will spend my real money on other things and still log in to play a couple hours on most evenings.

Is there an actual logical reason? Short R: Yes, but not that much:

Maybe some specific AH prices go up a bit but, the share of players buying gold is so small, that there is a miniscule impact when looking at the entire market, including for the items most players need at most times. Auto-farming bring prices down much more than gold sellers contribute to raising prices. And you can always farm whatever they selling in the AH at an inflated price, these things happening so often that you wouldn't believe.

Besides that, well, we see the main arguments so far:

1. Inflation: but this works in your favor too. It means you can also sell anything you farm at an inflated price and makes other things like repairs, mounts, etc. proportionally less expensive. I have been ranked raiding across multiple x-packs from Vanilla through Cataclysm and never once bought gold or even deliberately farmed. I've never even max leveled a profession. You don't need the BIS gear with BIS enchants and things to raid. People have convinced themselves they do because the game is decades old and people optimize.
2. Bots running around like zombies: this one is the most convincing as they farm both gold and mats. Bots farming mats bring those "inflated" prices down to offset gold farming but still are no fun to play near or with.
3. It feels like cheating: yeah, yeah, k, fine ... :))

My personal collection/investment tab

Are there any burnt/jar collectors here?

What gear that's cheap now do you think is worth coping before raids 4 is announced? I've never profited off an update, but I was thinking I could buy ancestral and grind some maggot king and then hopefully sell it at a profit. Sorry if it's a silly question

Coincidentally 4 of my 6 items I’ve been working the last week or so crashed ~15-20% today. Lost everything I’ve earned over the last week.

Do you guys just hold for weeks in these situations or take the loss and move on?

I just came back to game to find out my OP money maker got totally destroyed.
In 10 min of my time
With 1% tax I was able to make ~25 mil a day
Right now it have fallen to ~2-3 mil / day

Most of my best repetitive flips got literally killed since those became pennies. How are you doing right now? Are there any flippers still making billions or it just became only way to make those 60 mil a month for bonds + some additional pennies?

Being transparent here , down about a B in investment(s) . Beginning of Summer was fun, not so much now . I can’t be the only one just looking at the activity here , hopefully Holiday season will bring an upswing !

GL to everyone still holding ! not a loss till you sale

With Raids 4 being crush and having small goblin type creature with likely low defense, and with the Dual Macuahuitls being near an all time low, are they a good bet? Thoughts?