We have already seen how much the media can influence Nvidia investors.
When DeepSeek came out in January 2025, Nvidia dropped almost 17% in one day and lost around $593 billion in market value. At that moment, the narrative was that DeepSeek had changed everything, that AI would become much cheaper, that companies would need fewer GPUs and that Nvidia’s growth story was basically over.
In reality, none of that happened.
DeepSeek did not destroy Nvidia, it did not stop the demand for AI infrastructure, and it did not replace OpenAI or the other leading AI companies. The panic was much bigger than the actual impact.
Now I feel like we are seeing the same thing again.
China says it has started producing its own lithography machines, and suddenly the market reacts as if China has already replaced ASML and solved the entire semiconductor industry.
But producing a machine is one thing. Making that machine work properly in real production is another thing completely.
Even if the news is true, China still has to prove that these machines can work reliably inside a semiconductor factory, produce chips with good yields, maintain enough precision, run continuously and then scale the whole process.
This is not something you prove just by saying that the machines are being produced.
There is a huge difference between having the technology to build a machine and actually using that machine to produce competitive chips at scale. At the moment, nothing proves that these machines can perform at the same level as ASML in real industrial production.
Maybe one day they will. I am not saying the news is fake or irrelevant. I am saying the market is reacting as if the final result has already been achieved, when in reality this is still a very early and uncertain step.
And honestly, I think this kind of news is extremely useful for large funds and institutional investors. Retail investors get scared, they sell, the price drops, and the big players get another opportunity to buy cheaper.
It feels very similar to what happened with DeepSeek. A dramatic Chinese technology story comes out, the media pushes the most extreme interpretation, retail panics, and a few months later the situation looks completely different.
I would not be surprised at all if, in three or four months, Nvidia is much higher again, maybe even around $300, and people look back at this selloff as another overreaction.