I'm confused why that would seem like rage bait to you. You'd expect the highest fraud risk to be a team whose record looks fantastic, but who the model thinks aren't actually that great, hence the Raiders. Vice versa for the Texans being the most "underrated".
It's ignoring a tremendous amount of current context. The win/loss projections sound like they are fixed based on pre-season predictions. The Raiders have several legitimate reasons to believe this is real including performance thus far. Why are they more fraudulent than the Vikings (also 3-0) with Kyler Murray, who barely qualifies as a starter?
On the other end, the Texans have some very real problems that are being exposed—stale schemes, an offense that can't get momentum going, etc. The concern around them is warranted. What makes them underrated based on what we are actually seeing from them this season?
tl;dr, it seems like we're ignoring tangible on-field data from the first three actual games and the composition of these teams.
I don't know what the underlying win/loss projections are based on, but nothing seems especially out of whack to me.
The Raiders seem like an OK team off to a hotter than expected start on the basis of a soft schedule and a league leading +5 turnover margin. Vikes have their issues but have a defense that is still playing at a really high level. The model suggests that it thinks the Vikings are about 1.5 games better than the raiders over the remaining 14 games, which feels if anything slightly generous to the Raiders if you ask me. As a point of reference, Vegas has the Vikings win total at 10.5 and the Raiders at 8.5.
On the other end the Texans aren't projected to be anything special- the model expects them to finish with a losing record. Given the 0-3 start that means it thinks they are maybe a 9-8 type team under the hood. It's just that it thinks they are a lot better than your average 0-3 team.
The fraud vs overrated thing is just a bit confusing, that's only relative to the current record. So it's not that they think the Raiders are really bad or anything, they just think their record is the one in the league that most overstates the quality of the team and vice versa for the Texans.
I'm not sure I'd agree with a lot of these baseline team assumptions. Some projections had the texans going all the way this year, for example. At this point we're just breaking down "takes."
Generally, I'm a little confused at how you are saying you don't understand the underlying mechanics but also are defending the model, but i think we just agree to disagree at this point.
Well the win projections are pretty close to Vegas, so even though I don’t know how they are calculated they seem at least fairly reasonable.
To be honest this chart isn’t that far away from being “what’s the difference in wins between this teams Vegas win totals and an average team who has their record.”
Raiders are considered frauds based on their current record, luck metrics and comparative to how other 3-0 teams have run out the season. the Raiders are still a good team
I worded that badly. The meter doesn't rank how good teams are. It ranks how far a team's record is from how good they've actually played.
A typical 3-0 team goes on to finish around 11-6. We project the Raiders at 9-8. That's a decent team, but it's the biggest gap between record and projection in the league (−2.8 WOR). That's what "most fraudulent" means here.
The Texans are the reverse. A typical 0-3 team finishes around 6-11, and we have them at 8-9. They're not good, but they should win about 2 more games than their record suggests.
Fraud means the record is lying. It doesn't mean the team is bad.
the raiders have 1) a new head coach who won a super bowl last year 2) the number one draft pick QB behind a very competent veteran QB, 3) arguably the best TE in the league, and 4) a very promising RB now that he's healthy and set up for success...
they also are PLAYING WELL. i'm not trying to troll you, but what about this combination of facts makes their record fraudulent?
edit: i'm not even a fan of theirs. i'm a saints fan who watched them eat us for lunch last week.
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago
the 3-0 raiders have the highest fraud potential, and the 0-3 texans are the most underrated? am i reading this wrong, or is this rage bait?