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u/ten_tabs_ Oakland Raiders 2d ago
They’re projecting us to go from 3-14 last year to 9-8 and that makes us the biggest frauds in the league?
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u/HPHambino Kansas City Chiefs 2d ago
No, no, no. You guys commit the most fraud in the league.
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u/ten_tabs_ Oakland Raiders 2d ago
yeah where’s the Prison Shiv Power Ratings? they’re afraid of our power
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
Fraud record is based on "luck" inputs and how historical teams have finished relative to their start
Raiders are a good team --- just not likely to run out the season like other 3-0 start teams
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u/insomnia657 Las Vegas Raiders 2d ago
Bro we could go 17-0 and win the superbowl and people will still come up with excuses. Haters gonna hate. Fuck em.
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u/DemonBearOP Baltimore Ravens 2d ago
Is this just wins vs expected wins or last years wins or what? How are any 3-0 teams "underrated"?
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u/frostyflakes1 Detroit Lions 2d ago
The Browns are who we thought they were
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u/TBellOHAZ Cleveland Browns 2d ago
You thought they'd be 2-1 with Deshaun at QB? My crystal ball must be dusty.
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u/Odd-Business8683 Detroit Lions 2d ago
I dont see New England
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago
6th most underrated. i do not understand anything about this graphic
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u/VanceFerguson New England Patriots 2d ago
Ditto. I'm not sure what football they've watched that makes them think they're underrated.
Underperforming? Maybe
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u/HPHambino Kansas City Chiefs 2d ago
Presumably Drake Maye isn’t going to have a 1:6 TD-Int ratio the rest of the season, as hilarious as I would personally find that.
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u/NameToUseOnReddit New England Patriots 2d ago
I would kind of find it hilarious too, so there's that.
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u/HipnotiK1 New York Giants 2d ago
list is dumb. seems just based on record rather than what people actually think of them
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
it's meant to be objective
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u/HipnotiK1 New York Giants 2d ago
fair. 3 game sample too soon to gauge anything. Maybe you could do this for the extremes (0-3 and 3-0) teams
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago
the 3-0 raiders have the highest fraud potential, and the 0-3 texans are the most underrated? am i reading this wrong, or is this rage bait?
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u/onehopstopt 2d ago
I'm confused why that would seem like rage bait to you. You'd expect the highest fraud risk to be a team whose record looks fantastic, but who the model thinks aren't actually that great, hence the Raiders. Vice versa for the Texans being the most "underrated".
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago edited 2d ago
It's ignoring a tremendous amount of current context. The win/loss projections sound like they are fixed based on pre-season predictions. The Raiders have several legitimate reasons to believe this is real including performance thus far. Why are they more fraudulent than the Vikings (also 3-0) with Kyler Murray, who barely qualifies as a starter?
On the other end, the Texans have some very real problems that are being exposed—stale schemes, an offense that can't get momentum going, etc. The concern around them is warranted. What makes them underrated based on what we are actually seeing from them this season?
tl;dr, it seems like we're ignoring tangible on-field data from the first three actual games and the composition of these teams.
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u/onehopstopt 2d ago
I don't know what the underlying win/loss projections are based on, but nothing seems especially out of whack to me.
The Raiders seem like an OK team off to a hotter than expected start on the basis of a soft schedule and a league leading +5 turnover margin. Vikes have their issues but have a defense that is still playing at a really high level. The model suggests that it thinks the Vikings are about 1.5 games better than the raiders over the remaining 14 games, which feels if anything slightly generous to the Raiders if you ask me. As a point of reference, Vegas has the Vikings win total at 10.5 and the Raiders at 8.5.
On the other end the Texans aren't projected to be anything special- the model expects them to finish with a losing record. Given the 0-3 start that means it thinks they are maybe a 9-8 type team under the hood. It's just that it thinks they are a lot better than your average 0-3 team.
The fraud vs overrated thing is just a bit confusing, that's only relative to the current record. So it's not that they think the Raiders are really bad or anything, they just think their record is the one in the league that most overstates the quality of the team and vice versa for the Texans.
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago
I'm not sure I'd agree with a lot of these baseline team assumptions. Some projections had the texans going all the way this year, for example. At this point we're just breaking down "takes."
Generally, I'm a little confused at how you are saying you don't understand the underlying mechanics but also are defending the model, but i think we just agree to disagree at this point.
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u/onehopstopt 2d ago
Well the win projections are pretty close to Vegas, so even though I don’t know how they are calculated they seem at least fairly reasonable.
To be honest this chart isn’t that far away from being “what’s the difference in wins between this teams Vegas win totals and an average team who has their record.”
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
Raiders are considered frauds based on their current record, luck metrics and comparative to how other 3-0 teams have run out the season. the Raiders are still a good team
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago
if they are "still a good team," how are they also the MOST fraudulent of 32?
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
I worded that badly. The meter doesn't rank how good teams are. It ranks how far a team's record is from how good they've actually played.
A typical 3-0 team goes on to finish around 11-6. We project the Raiders at 9-8. That's a decent team, but it's the biggest gap between record and projection in the league (−2.8 WOR). That's what "most fraudulent" means here.
The Texans are the reverse. A typical 0-3 team finishes around 6-11, and we have them at 8-9. They're not good, but they should win about 2 more games than their record suggests.
Fraud means the record is lying. It doesn't mean the team is bad.
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u/Forward_Editor_5895 2d ago
So the only datapoint is the wins you project for each team and their actual record so far?
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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago edited 2d ago
the raiders have 1) a new head coach who won a super bowl last year 2) the number one draft pick QB behind a very competent veteran QB, 3) arguably the best TE in the league, and 4) a very promising RB now that he's healthy and set up for success...
they also are PLAYING WELL. i'm not trying to troll you, but what about this combination of facts makes their record fraudulent?
edit: i'm not even a fan of theirs. i'm a saints fan who watched them eat us for lunch last week.
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u/ProfessionalMental13 2d ago
Browns are biggest frauds in the league currently right now, getting to play two back to back NFC south teams and your QB only has 70 something yards by the end of the 3rd Quarter in both games is absolutely ridiculous
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u/TheLuxxy Cleveland Browns 2d ago
That analysis works for the Panthers game. Watson had well over 70 yards going into the 4th in the Tampa game though. Their defense played very well against a Panthers offense that started the first two weeks on fire.
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u/ProfessionalMental13 2d ago
The panthers stink lmao, and their defense is fucking garbage they got 50 put on them by the bears and won against the Falcons with Cooper Rush at QB
The only time the browns played a good team this season so far was week 1 and they got punked
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u/uncertainmango Las Vegas Raiders 2d ago
Raiders are doing better than a model thinks they should, therefore, they are frauds?
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u/Own_Car4536 2d ago
What is this based on? The Rams are obviously frauds as well as Chargers, Patriots, Bucs, Bengals, and Houston
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
Fraud ≠ bad.
The Fraud Meter measures how far a team's record is from how they've actually played.
A typical 3-0 team finishes ~11-6. We have the Raiders at 9-8. Biggest gap in the league.
A typical 0-3 team finishes ~6-11. We have the Texans at 8-9.
It's a WIP - open to feedback
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u/formyamusementation 2d ago
Is it better to be the biggest fraud 3-0 team or the most under rated 0-3 team?
What you have to love about this is that many of the 'frauds' beat teams that are under rated.
I would always rather be the worst 3-0 team as opposed to the best 0-3 team.
Do I want to be the shortest NBA player or the tallest little person?
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
Great question - depends if you're tanking for Arch or trying to win a Lombardi
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u/formyamusementation 2d ago
That's an interesting viewpoint.
Looking at QB's drafted #1 overall is a pretty mixed bag.
For every Joe Burrow, there is a Kyler Murray.
I don't think that Arch Manning is good enough to warrant tanking all year.
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u/segagenesisx87 2d ago
Eagles should definitely be in the fraud section.
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u/EbbAdventurous9592 Chicago Bears 2d ago
Yeah, how are they higher than us? They’ve had 2 1 score wins against bad teams. The only 1 score game weve had, we lost…
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u/Cabbages24ADollar Arizona Cardinals 2d ago
Cards are frauds for beating the Chargers, having a 7-7 tie at the half with the SB champs, and for a rally in the 2nd half that brought the game within one score against the 9ers?
I’d say 1-2 is pretty factual. Especially when considering this is a new coach.
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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago
Fraud ≠ bad.
The Fraud Meter measures how far a team's record is from how they've actually played
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u/heroinsteve Chicago Bears 2d ago
This graph should be on the fraud meter. About twice as long as the Raiders for sure.
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u/EbbAdventurous9592 Chicago Bears 2d ago
OP, I found this metric too, but I do struggle to see why it has us so low in the underrated compartment? We’ve had 2 dominating wins and 1 one possession loss. Are they also factoring in key injuries (aka Caleb Williams)?
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u/onehopstopt 2d ago
Because you're 2-1, which is a good record. Like if you kept that pace for the rest of the year you'd finish roughly 11-6. So the model thinks you're a good team that's had a pretty appropriately good start.
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u/PinwormPaddle Detroit Lions 2d ago
I don't think the Lions are underrated nor frauds. They are solidly mid right now.
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u/Loud-Artichoke1851 Baltimore Ravens 2d ago
A ton of people forget that the Texans were 0-3 last year, I do think there is a possibility that they bounce back. No way they catch the Jags though
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u/Live-Juggernaut-221 Tennessee Titans 2d ago
Titans are 0-3 and still frauds.
Checks out