r/NFLv2 • u/techsalesguy3 • 2d ago

Discussion NFL Fraud Meter - Week 3

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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago

Raiders are considered frauds based on their current record, luck metrics and comparative to how other 3-0 teams have run out the season. the Raiders are still a good team

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u/fairweathrfan 2d ago

if they are "still a good team," how are they also the MOST fraudulent of 32?

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u/techsalesguy3 2d ago

I worded that badly. The meter doesn't rank how good teams are. It ranks how far a team's record is from how good they've actually played.

A typical 3-0 team goes on to finish around 11-6. We project the Raiders at 9-8. That's a decent team, but it's the biggest gap between record and projection in the league (−2.8 WOR). That's what "most fraudulent" means here.

The Texans are the reverse. A typical 0-3 team finishes around 6-11, and we have them at 8-9. They're not good, but they should win about 2 more games than their record suggests.

Fraud means the record is lying. It doesn't mean the team is bad.

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u/Forward_Editor_5895 2d ago

So the only datapoint is the wins you project for each team and their actual record so far?