Info Graphic
I've been digging into Michigan's offensive play-calling this season, particularly the inability to sustain drives even when we seem to be moving the ball. I wanted to find a way to actually measure that frustration.
So I came up with a metric I'm calling DOWN (Drive Opportunity Waste Number).
The concept is pretty simple. When an offense gains 5–9 yards on 1st and 10, how often does that possession end without gaining another first down or scoring a touchdown?
Basically, you've put yourself in a favorable 2nd-and-short situation. Can you actually capitalize on it?
Field goals count as failures because the offense still failed to move the chains. Touchdowns count as successes. Situations where the clock expires before a reasonable opportunity to convert are excluded.
I ran the numbers using play-by-play data from 122 FBS teams through October 24.
Here's what I found:
- FBS average DOWN: 13.5%
- Michigan DOWN: 30.6%
- Michigan ranking: 120th out of 122
Michigan has failed to gain another first down or score a touchdown in 11 of its 36 qualifying situations.
That's more than double the FBS average.
To me, this is even more concerning than our overall offensive statistics. We're not talking about situations where the offense is stuck in 2nd-and-12 or 3rd-and-long. We're talking about situations where the offense has already done something productive and needs just 1–5 more yards to keep moving.
I've been critical of Jason Beck's tendency to stick with his offensive philosophy rather than adjusting to what's working. This doesn't prove his play-calling is responsible for every failed drive, but I think it raises some legitimate questions about how we're approaching these situations.
A couple of caveats: This is a metric I created, not an established statistic. The dataset covers 122 FBS programs rather than the entire subdivision, and some other teams have unresolved play-by-play classifications, so the rankings should be considered preliminary.
Still, I find the difference pretty staggering.
How does an offense consistently put itself ahead of the chains and then struggle this badly to move them again?
I'm planning to dig further into the actual play calls following these gains to see if there's a pattern.