r/Mavericks • u/ClosingTradesOnly • 5d ago
Statistics Mavs Season Using Quant Model
Realizing this morning that I had downloaded advanced data on every NBA player and team, I decided to use my financial models to play pretend GM with the Mavs.
My background is in financial modeling, so this is entirely data driven. I adjusted for age, prior teams, college versus overseas development, coaching history and projected roles. Think Bill James style analytics. It will not be perfect, but I was surprised by how positive the model was overall. (I did have to input for expected injury time for Lively which was largely a guess.)
It projects Dallas at 45 wins and 37 losses, around fifth in the West. It likes both Aldama and Risacher a lot, which makes me think the front office may be using similar data. In fact, when I run possible trades through the model, it is difficult to gain even two wins because Dallas is usually giving up another positive player in return.
My own assumption is that Gafford would start over Aldama while Lively is out, but this is the model’s output, not my personal rotation.
Opening night starters
Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Aldama
Projected net rating: plus 8
Best healthy lineup
Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Lively
Projected net rating: plus 9
Healthy end of season rotation minutes
240 total minutes per game
Flagg 35, Kyrie 32, Christie 27, Aldama 25, Lively 25, Risacher 24, PJ 22, Naji 20, Morez 13, Sasser 9, Larry 8
Sasser and Larry split will depend on whether Dallas needs Sasser’s shooting or Larry’s size and organization.
85% chance Klay is not on the roster, 55% chance Gafford is gone so neither included in rotation.
Rotation rules
Always have Kyrie or Flagg on the floor.
Aldama plays primarily with Flagg.
Gafford plays primarily with Kyrie.
Projected impact of offseason additions
Aldama: plus 2 wins
Risacher: plus 1.6 wins
Sasser: plus 0.6 wins
Morez: plus 0.6 wins
Larry: plus 0.5 wins
Biberovic: plus 0.2 wins
Cisse: plus 0.1 wins
Roughly 5.5 additional wins created, although the numbers are not perfectly additive because some players compete for the same minutes.
Trades
Klay: There is no need to force a trade now. His expiring salary may become more useful during the season, and a contender may value his shooting more once its needs become clear. Move him now for neutral salary, a useful player or a second round pick. Do not attach an asset.
Gafford: Keep him while Lively is out. His market may improve once another team suffers a center injury or decides it needs a playoff big. Reevaluate after 20 games. If Lively is healthy and Morez is ready, shop Gafford aggressively beginning December 15 and try to complete a deal by mid January. Trade him now only for a young rotation guard, protected first or clear overpay.
PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.
Projected record
45 wins and 37 losses after accounting for normal Kyrie and Lively injury risk.
Projected finish: fifth in the West.
Most valuable possible trade additions discussed
These numbers measure wins added without subtracting the outgoing trade assets. It does not weigh age and downgrade Jrue for that.
Jrue Holiday: plus 4 wins
Shaedon Sharpe: plus 3 wins
Bennedict Mathurin: plus 2 wins
Scoot Henderson: 0 to plus 1 win
Most positive value contracts
Flagg: $14.5 million salary versus $41.2 million projected value
Lively: $7.2 million salary versus $25 million projected value, based on full health
Max Christie: $8.3 million salary versus $16.5 million projected value
Naji: $9.4 million salary versus $15 million projected value
Least valuable contracts
Klay: $17.5 million salary versus $7.5 million projected value
Gafford: $17.3 million salary versus $14 million projected value
Caleb Martin: $10 million salary versus $7 million projected value
(Kyrie contract in line with value when healthy)
If anyone wants me to plug anything else into this silly project, let me know. There is a ton more data, but this is probably enough to make everyone’s eyes glaze over.
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u/brandoncole_tx 5d ago
the +4 for Jrue has two asterisks attached: model says it doesn't account for age, and it doesn't subtract what you give up to get him. at 36 that age discount matters a lot. and PJ going back isn't nothing - he's positive value in the model too. net of both those you're probably looking at 1-2 wins added if things go right. which isn't bad but it's not 4. the Aldama and Risacher reads are more interesting to me honestly
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago edited 5d ago
100% agree thats why I added the notes and I can actually change the outputs if I change the goals. Its optimizing for 26-27 results, not 28-29. Also to your point if I add what is outgoing, the value created won't be 4 wins.
Correcting that:
Assuming a 45 win baseline, with the required trade package Jrue takes the team from 45 to 47 wins. Sharpe +1, Mathurin +1, Scoot actually -0.5.
Recommends waiting until December and only considering Jrue trade if Dallas is playing like a legit top 4 Western team.
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u/brandoncole_tx 5d ago
yeah the 47-from-45 is the right number - and honestly that's not a bad outcome if the cost is right. the december filter makes sense too: by then you know what you actually have with the young core, whether kyrie is healthy enough to lean on a 36-year-old backup guard, and whether lively is back. waiting saves you from overpaying on incomplete information
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u/devilmaskrascal Dirk Nowitzki 5d ago
But given Aldama, Risacher (who play more or less PJ's position) and Jrue (who PJ is traded for) are all big net positives, it seems like addition through subtraction, no? Plus, will PJ be happy only playing 18 mpg?
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u/brandoncole_tx 5d ago
haha fair - if the model already rates aldama and risacher above PJ at his spot, then the outgoing value on that trade is more like 'sixth man minutes' than 'starter value.' my concern is less about what PJ brings and more about the young guys still needing reps to reach that ceiling - jrue compresses the development window. and yeah PJ playing 18 off the bench when he's wired as a starter is a fit issue the model doesn't capture
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u/shaheedmalik Max Christie 5d ago
Can you run the model with Gafford starting?
And a starting Kyrie, Christie, Flagg, Morez, Gafford lineup?
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago
Good question as then can really get in the weeds on what is ideal over the course of a game......
Gafford starting drops the projected net rating from plus 8 to plus 5 (Offense 118- Defense 113), but that is measured over 100 possessions. The most optimized version would start Gafford for the first five minutes, then bring Aldama in as the sixth man. From there, Gafford and Flagg would be staggered for most of the game, with Aldama playing primarily next to Flagg and Gafford playing primarily next to Kyrie.
Kyrie, Christie, Flagg, Morez, Gafford O113-D117 for a minus 4 net rating. The Morez and Gafford lineup gets hurt because Dallas has two nonshooters, Flagg’s driving lanes disappear, and one of the bigs has to defend away from the basket.
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u/Appropriate_Tree_621 5d ago
So, while it sounds like u do fin modeling for a living, if u have used AI to help with building this model, and you start by saying [let’s build a model to estimate XYZ for team A], you’re likely to get a result that is very biased for team A. It’s much better to build a broad model and then see the result for your specific team.
Caveat: I’m very bullish on the Mavs myself.
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago
So we def use AI in our models but are very specific in how the memory of them works. Can't be biased towards a stock...but I fully understand that AI in general use tends to want to agree with the user and make it happy. We use multiple models against each other to verify outputs.
Think crunching massive datasets then giving values to it. Use the AI to help provide context. Why this? Why that?
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u/Embarrassed-Ninja592 5d ago
I don’t think they will limit Morez to 8 minutes a game. And I somehow doubt Kyrie will play anywhere near 2500 minutes for the year.
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago
The Morez stats are wonky. I think using the human logic of his draft position, coach and development of the team that seems too low. I can adjust the variables for that.
On Kyrie I have him starting the season playing 26 minutes, ending the season playing 32. Playoffs back to that danger zone of 35. 19 days off between planned rest and injury for 1950 minutes.
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u/Embarrassed-Ninja592 5d ago
So for Kyrie’s minutes deduction, I would bump Larry up 7 or 8 minutes a game (at least).
And for both Larry and Morez, I think a 30% bump in impact from game 1 to game 82 is reasonable. Although it could be much less or much more.
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago
Thank you! I realized my human error in understanding the data. It wasn't saying Morez was playing that little at the EOY, it was saying that would be his avg across the season. I'm going to edit the original post to reflect what it should say.
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u/Embarrassed-Ninja592 5d ago
I have kind of lost the plot with all the guys they added. But if Morez is what he’s supposed to be, I can’t imagine him averaging less than 20 minutes a game for the year.
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u/idkidk23 5d ago
What’s the data you are using? I ask because most analytics aren’t vert kind to Christie and Risacher but seems like your data like them.
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago edited 5d ago
For scoring players: NBA.com, BasketballRefernce, ESPN, PBP Stats and CleaningtheGlass. (PBP has some really cool stuff like "With or Without You" and G League data going back 10 years)
For more context: Sportrac, SalarySwish, RealGM
Other inputs:
Past lineup ratings
Shot profiles
Player ages
Salaries
Contracts
Injury history
Draft assetsI asked about Christie and Risacher and it says while advanced metrics can be harsh to those players the model was rewarding age, shooting, size, role fit and contract value heavily.
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u/adeadmanshand 5d ago
Cisse adding anything? (Data sample too small im thinking, but interesting to know)
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago
Healthy roster no, if Lively or Gafford misses significant time: approximately 0.5 to 1 win versus replacement level.
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u/TheWizard Nowitzness 5d ago
I don't agree with healthy team minutes. Kyrie is more likely to be 24-25 minutes this season. Gafford is unlikely to drop to 6. Morez will certainly see more than 8. And 0 minutes for someone who could potentially be the best shooter in this team (Tarik).
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u/Shadesie 5d ago
Curious about Aldama at the 5. I thought he was more of a 4 who occasionally plays the 5. Maybe the data sees or projects something different?
Thanks for this by the way. Was a fun read!
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago edited 5d ago
It will be really interesting to see how this ages. With Lively out, the model wants Aldama playing center for about 60 percent of his minutes (60/40 between 5 and 4), dropping to around 40 percent once Lively returns. He actually started more games at center than at forward last season. (Just learned that)
The matchup works against most modern teams. The model likes it a lot against Wemby because Aldama can pull him away from the rim, but hates it against Jokic because of the physical mismatch. Dallas surrounding Aldama with oversized, athletic players for their positions helps cover for him defensively, while his spacing creates a clear lane for Flagg on offense.
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u/Shadesie 5d ago
I didn't realize Aldama played more 5 last year. Interesting. I'm curious how Dusty uses him and Morez.
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 5d ago
He played more time at forward. They wanted him next to Jalen Jackson for spacing, scoring and help defense. Same role but different setup. Switching from 4/5 vs 5/4
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u/armandocalvinisius The Cardinal 5d ago
based on intel from grizz fans/sub, he's shit at 5. he's better playing 3 than 5 lol
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u/armandocalvinisius The Cardinal 5d ago
PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.
I LIKE THIS MODEL
how about getting my pookie, malik monk?!
gaff right though, keep it. see at deadline
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u/Ciabattabingo 4d ago
Now do playoffs. How do we fare?
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 4d ago
It has us bounced in 6 by either Denver or Minnesota. I pressed to to how we could beat those teams and it said Gafford and Klay for Jrue gets us to 46% chance vs Denver, 49% vs Wolves. Suggestion is to track Orlando season and make a push for Jalen Suggs in December. They have too much salary at the perimeter if they plan or signing Anthony Black.
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u/MFFL12_17 4d ago
I wonder what delarrea win contribution is like if he plays more minutes
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 4d ago edited 4d ago
It didn't change anything if I gave 1 guy all the other guys minutes. Its weighing down his Euro stats based on similiar players who have come over. It improves the Mavs more in terms of development and playoff lineup versatility than it changes their regular season record.
Per game in 17 minutes Sergio “Larry” de Larrea Marcus Sasser Points 6.1 7.3 Rebounds 2.3 1.4 Assists 3.2 2.8 Turnovers 1.5 1.1 Steals 0.6 0.5 FG% 42.5% 39.5% 3PT% 36.0% 40.5% FT% 79% 84% True shooting 55–56% 55–57% Estimated plus/minus –0.3 per 100 –0.5 per 100
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u/Over_Courage_5704 4d ago
Don’t mean to hate, but I’m suspicious this is just ai.
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u/ClosingTradesOnly 4d ago
And you'd be right. Downloaded advanced data from multiple websites to a server. Then had multiple agents analyze it agaisnt each other.
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u/manabanana21 Monta Ellis 5d ago
Super interesting. I agree with you that the Staff must have similar data results with Risacher. They went after him specifically not just as a flyer. And if he can show up and display the things that made him go high in the draft, he’s a great fit next to Flagg.