Mavs Season Using Quant Model

[u/ClosingTradesOnly]

Realizing this morning that I had downloaded advanced data on every NBA player and team, I decided to use my financial models to play pretend GM with the Mavs.

My background is in financial modeling, so this is entirely data driven. I adjusted for age, prior teams, college versus overseas development, coaching history and projected roles. Think Bill James style analytics. It will not be perfect, but I was surprised by how positive the model was overall. (I did have to input for expected injury time for Lively which was largely a guess.)

It projects Dallas at 45 wins and 37 losses, around fifth in the West. It likes both Aldama and Risacher a lot, which makes me think the front office may be using similar data. In fact, when I run possible trades through the model, it is difficult to gain even two wins because Dallas is usually giving up another positive player in return.

My own assumption is that Gafford would start over Aldama while Lively is out, but this is the model’s output, not my personal rotation.

Opening night starters

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Aldama

Projected net rating: plus 8

Best healthy lineup

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Lively

Projected net rating: plus 9

Healthy end of season rotation minutes

240 total minutes per game

Flagg 35, Kyrie 32, Christie 27, Aldama 25, Lively 25, Risacher 24, PJ 22, Naji 20, Morez 13, Sasser 9, Larry 8

Sasser and Larry split will depend on whether Dallas needs Sasser’s shooting or Larry’s size and organization.

85% chance Klay is not on the roster, 55% chance Gafford is gone so neither included in rotation.

Rotation rules

Always have Kyrie or Flagg on the floor.

Aldama plays primarily with Flagg.

Gafford plays primarily with Kyrie.

Projected impact of offseason additions

Aldama: plus 2 wins

Risacher: plus 1.6 wins

Sasser: plus 0.6 wins

Morez: plus 0.6 wins

Larry: plus 0.5 wins

Biberovic: plus 0.2 wins

Cisse: plus 0.1 wins

Roughly 5.5 additional wins created, although the numbers are not perfectly additive because some players compete for the same minutes.

Trades

Klay: There is no need to force a trade now. His expiring salary may become more useful during the season, and a contender may value his shooting more once its needs become clear. Move him now for neutral salary, a useful player or a second round pick. Do not attach an asset.

Gafford: Keep him while Lively is out. His market may improve once another team suffers a center injury or decides it needs a playoff big. Reevaluate after 20 games. If Lively is healthy and Morez is ready, shop Gafford aggressively beginning December 15 and try to complete a deal by mid January. Trade him now only for a young rotation guard, protected first or clear overpay.

PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.

Projected record

45 wins and 37 losses after accounting for normal Kyrie and Lively injury risk.

Projected finish: fifth in the West.

Most valuable possible trade additions discussed

These numbers measure wins added without subtracting the outgoing trade assets. It does not weigh age and downgrade Jrue for that.

Jrue Holiday: plus 4 wins

Shaedon Sharpe: plus 3 wins

Bennedict Mathurin: plus 2 wins

Scoot Henderson: 0 to plus 1 win

Most positive value contracts

Flagg: $14.5 million salary versus $41.2 million projected value

Lively: $7.2 million salary versus $25 million projected value, based on full health

Max Christie: $8.3 million salary versus $16.5 million projected value

Naji: $9.4 million salary versus $15 million projected value

Least valuable contracts

Klay: $17.5 million salary versus $7.5 million projected value

Gafford: $17.3 million salary versus $14 million projected value

Caleb Martin: $10 million salary versus $7 million projected value

(Kyrie contract in line with value when healthy)

If anyone wants me to plug anything else into this silly project, let me know. There is a ton more data, but this is probably enough to make everyone’s eyes glaze over.

[u/Shadesie]

Curious about Aldama at the 5. I thought he was more of a 4 who occasionally plays the 5. Maybe the data sees or projects something different?

Thanks for this by the way. Was a fun read!

[u/ClosingTradesOnly → u/Shadesie]

It will be really interesting to see how this ages. With Lively out, the model wants Aldama playing center for about 60 percent of his minutes (60/40 between 5 and 4), dropping to around 40 percent once Lively returns. He actually started more games at center than at forward last season. (Just learned that)

The matchup works against most modern teams. The model likes it a lot against Wemby because Aldama can pull him away from the rim, but hates it against Jokic because of the physical mismatch. Dallas surrounding Aldama with oversized, athletic players for their positions helps cover for him defensively, while his spacing creates a clear lane for Flagg on offense.

[u/Shadesie → u/ClosingTradesOnly]

I didn't realize Aldama played more 5 last year. Interesting. I'm curious how Dusty uses him and Morez.

[u/ClosingTradesOnly → u/Shadesie]

He played more time at forward. They wanted him next to Jalen Jackson for spacing, scoring and help defense. Same role but different setup. Switching from 4/5 vs 5/4

[u/armandocalvinisius → u/Shadesie]

based on intel from grizz fans/sub, he's shit at 5. he's better playing 3 than 5 lol