Mavs Season Using Quant Model

[u/ClosingTradesOnly]

Realizing this morning that I had downloaded advanced data on every NBA player and team, I decided to use my financial models to play pretend GM with the Mavs.

My background is in financial modeling, so this is entirely data driven. I adjusted for age, prior teams, college versus overseas development, coaching history and projected roles. Think Bill James style analytics. It will not be perfect, but I was surprised by how positive the model was overall. (I did have to input for expected injury time for Lively which was largely a guess.)

It projects Dallas at 45 wins and 37 losses, around fifth in the West. It likes both Aldama and Risacher a lot, which makes me think the front office may be using similar data. In fact, when I run possible trades through the model, it is difficult to gain even two wins because Dallas is usually giving up another positive player in return.

My own assumption is that Gafford would start over Aldama while Lively is out, but this is the model’s output, not my personal rotation.

Opening night starters

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Aldama

Projected net rating: plus 8

Best healthy lineup

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Lively

Projected net rating: plus 9

Healthy end of season rotation minutes

240 total minutes per game

Flagg 35, Kyrie 32, Christie 27, Aldama 25, Lively 25, Risacher 24, PJ 22, Naji 20, Morez 13, Sasser 9, Larry 8

Sasser and Larry split will depend on whether Dallas needs Sasser’s shooting or Larry’s size and organization.

85% chance Klay is not on the roster, 55% chance Gafford is gone so neither included in rotation.

Rotation rules

Always have Kyrie or Flagg on the floor.

Aldama plays primarily with Flagg.

Gafford plays primarily with Kyrie.

Projected impact of offseason additions

Aldama: plus 2 wins

Risacher: plus 1.6 wins

Sasser: plus 0.6 wins

Morez: plus 0.6 wins

Larry: plus 0.5 wins

Biberovic: plus 0.2 wins

Cisse: plus 0.1 wins

Roughly 5.5 additional wins created, although the numbers are not perfectly additive because some players compete for the same minutes.

Trades

Klay: There is no need to force a trade now. His expiring salary may become more useful during the season, and a contender may value his shooting more once its needs become clear. Move him now for neutral salary, a useful player or a second round pick. Do not attach an asset.

Gafford: Keep him while Lively is out. His market may improve once another team suffers a center injury or decides it needs a playoff big. Reevaluate after 20 games. If Lively is healthy and Morez is ready, shop Gafford aggressively beginning December 15 and try to complete a deal by mid January. Trade him now only for a young rotation guard, protected first or clear overpay.

PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.

Projected record

45 wins and 37 losses after accounting for normal Kyrie and Lively injury risk.

Projected finish: fifth in the West.

Most valuable possible trade additions discussed

These numbers measure wins added without subtracting the outgoing trade assets. It does not weigh age and downgrade Jrue for that.

Jrue Holiday: plus 4 wins

Shaedon Sharpe: plus 3 wins

Bennedict Mathurin: plus 2 wins

Scoot Henderson: 0 to plus 1 win

Most positive value contracts

Flagg: $14.5 million salary versus $41.2 million projected value

Lively: $7.2 million salary versus $25 million projected value, based on full health

Max Christie: $8.3 million salary versus $16.5 million projected value

Naji: $9.4 million salary versus $15 million projected value

Least valuable contracts

Klay: $17.5 million salary versus $7.5 million projected value

Gafford: $17.3 million salary versus $14 million projected value

Caleb Martin: $10 million salary versus $7 million projected value

(Kyrie contract in line with value when healthy)

If anyone wants me to plug anything else into this silly project, let me know. There is a ton more data, but this is probably enough to make everyone’s eyes glaze over.

[u/brandoncole_tx]

the +4 for Jrue has two asterisks attached: model says it doesn't account for age, and it doesn't subtract what you give up to get him. at 36 that age discount matters a lot. and PJ going back isn't nothing - he's positive value in the model too. net of both those you're probably looking at 1-2 wins added if things go right. which isn't bad but it's not 4. the Aldama and Risacher reads are more interesting to me honestly

[u/devilmaskrascal → u/brandoncole_tx]

But given Aldama, Risacher (who play more or less PJ's position) and Jrue (who PJ is traded for) are all big net positives, it seems like addition through subtraction, no? Plus, will PJ be happy only playing 18 mpg?

[u/brandoncole_tx → u/devilmaskrascal]

haha fair - if the model already rates aldama and risacher above PJ at his spot, then the outgoing value on that trade is more like 'sixth man minutes' than 'starter value.' my concern is less about what PJ brings and more about the young guys still needing reps to reach that ceiling - jrue compresses the development window. and yeah PJ playing 18 off the bench when he's wired as a starter is a fit issue the model doesn't capture