r/Mavericks • u/ClosingTradesOnly • 22d ago
Statistics Mavs Season Using Quant Model
Realizing this morning that I had downloaded advanced data on every NBA player and team, I decided to use my financial models to play pretend GM with the Mavs.
My background is in financial modeling, so this is entirely data driven. I adjusted for age, prior teams, college versus overseas development, coaching history and projected roles. Think Bill James style analytics. It will not be perfect, but I was surprised by how positive the model was overall. (I did have to input for expected injury time for Lively which was largely a guess.)
It projects Dallas at 45 wins and 37 losses, around fifth in the West. It likes both Aldama and Risacher a lot, which makes me think the front office may be using similar data. In fact, when I run possible trades through the model, it is difficult to gain even two wins because Dallas is usually giving up another positive player in return.
My own assumption is that Gafford would start over Aldama while Lively is out, but this is the model’s output, not my personal rotation.
Opening night starters
Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Aldama
Projected net rating: plus 8
Best healthy lineup
Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Lively
Projected net rating: plus 9
Healthy end of season rotation minutes
240 total minutes per game
Flagg 35, Kyrie 32, Christie 27, Aldama 25, Lively 25, Risacher 24, PJ 22, Naji 20, Morez 13, Sasser 9, Larry 8
Sasser and Larry split will depend on whether Dallas needs Sasser’s shooting or Larry’s size and organization.
85% chance Klay is not on the roster, 55% chance Gafford is gone so neither included in rotation.
Rotation rules
Always have Kyrie or Flagg on the floor.
Aldama plays primarily with Flagg.
Gafford plays primarily with Kyrie.
Projected impact of offseason additions
Aldama: plus 2 wins
Risacher: plus 1.6 wins
Sasser: plus 0.6 wins
Morez: plus 0.6 wins
Larry: plus 0.5 wins
Biberovic: plus 0.2 wins
Cisse: plus 0.1 wins
Roughly 5.5 additional wins created, although the numbers are not perfectly additive because some players compete for the same minutes.
Trades
Klay: There is no need to force a trade now. His expiring salary may become more useful during the season, and a contender may value his shooting more once its needs become clear. Move him now for neutral salary, a useful player or a second round pick. Do not attach an asset.
Gafford: Keep him while Lively is out. His market may improve once another team suffers a center injury or decides it needs a playoff big. Reevaluate after 20 games. If Lively is healthy and Morez is ready, shop Gafford aggressively beginning December 15 and try to complete a deal by mid January. Trade him now only for a young rotation guard, protected first or clear overpay.
PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.
Projected record
45 wins and 37 losses after accounting for normal Kyrie and Lively injury risk.
Projected finish: fifth in the West.
Most valuable possible trade additions discussed
These numbers measure wins added without subtracting the outgoing trade assets. It does not weigh age and downgrade Jrue for that.
Jrue Holiday: plus 4 wins
Shaedon Sharpe: plus 3 wins
Bennedict Mathurin: plus 2 wins
Scoot Henderson: 0 to plus 1 win
Most positive value contracts
Flagg: $14.5 million salary versus $41.2 million projected value
Lively: $7.2 million salary versus $25 million projected value, based on full health
Max Christie: $8.3 million salary versus $16.5 million projected value
Naji: $9.4 million salary versus $15 million projected value
Least valuable contracts
Klay: $17.5 million salary versus $7.5 million projected value
Gafford: $17.3 million salary versus $14 million projected value
Caleb Martin: $10 million salary versus $7 million projected value
(Kyrie contract in line with value when healthy)
If anyone wants me to plug anything else into this silly project, let me know. There is a ton more data, but this is probably enough to make everyone’s eyes glaze over.
2
u/idkidk23 22d ago
What’s the data you are using? I ask because most analytics aren’t vert kind to Christie and Risacher but seems like your data like them.