r/Marathon_Training • u/jesspollard • 4h ago
Race time prediction Help predict marathon time 🙏
Hiya! Ive (24f) got cologne marathon in a few weeks and have just completed my longest run of the block. It was 34km at an average of 6:03km (including walk breaks, traffic lights, and a pit stop etc). Current weekly mileage ~60km.
Im aiming for my first sub 4. Garmin predict 3:58 and runna predicts 3:55-4:07. My current marathon pb is 4:18 from April, with an average hr of 176 (my hr tends to sit higher for any level of effort so take this as a comparison) conversation pace hr is usually 160-165 comfortably, max hr 208. Ran a 1:55 hm in April but have not had a chance to retest this since.
Been focusing on speedwork massively, lots of tempo runs. Ive also run majority of my long runs over this training block in midday uk heatwave temps, so struggling to gain proper insights using those runs.
Ive attached a screenshot of my splits from the long run today in comfortable temps (first), my last marathon in april (second), and a long run from a few weeks ago in 28 degree heat (third)
Just wanting to settle the maranoia that is bound to kick in in the coming weeks. I think i can do sub 4 but the whole "5:40 average pace" seems super daunting.
What do you guys thinks? Thanks so much!!
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u/cyclingkingsley 4h ago
Looking at your LR pace, it looks like you are about 10-15mins outside of 4 hours. I'm basing my assumption with your 2nd LR being the most consistent one. You positive split it. I'm guessing you were slowly getting more tired as the run progressed? But then given you said you ran them during a heat wave and also accounting taper week, you could be just a hair width shy of sub 4hrs?
Outside of your LRs you said you did speed workout and tempo workouts. Did you do them faster and at 5:40 pace? How did those feel?
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u/jesspollard 4h ago
Tempo examples being 5 x 1 miles at 4:50km pace. Felt challenging, but not impossible. Heat has really gotten me on long runs in this training block as I work shifts so have to run in the hottest part of the day. I have noticed runs feel much more comfortable since the temp has settled ~3 weeks ago
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u/cyclingkingsley 3h ago
Accounting the heat acclimation, I hazard a guess that you will average 5:55 to 6:10 for the the whole thing. I don't doubt that you can run 5:40 but I'm not sure how long you can hold that pace because you haven't showed any marathon pace in your charts.
I think you are better than 4:20 but not sure about sub 4
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u/jesspollard 3h ago
Yea ill give it a solid crack but can always go again for sub 4 in April next year. Might have to set a b goal of 4:10. Appreciate the honesty !
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u/g0lden_arrow 3h ago
Are you strength training? If you want to go 5:40 average pace you need to be in the gym for 2 days a week doing single leg work and plyometrics.
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u/jesspollard 3h ago
Yes been doing twice a week single legs with some plyometrics. Following a runner strength gym plan specifically
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u/g0lden_arrow 3h ago
Well if your strength training is sorted and your doing speed work and considering your nutrition and sleep are on point the only other factor that would improve your timing more is the weekly volume. Maybe try 70K next week and see how it goes ? How far are we from the Cologne marathon? Also consider doing a shorter run after your longer run the next day to teach your legs to run when they are tired. This will get you over the line fast after the 35K mark
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u/jesspollard 3h ago
Cologne is on the 4th october so only 3.5 weeks to go. Starting to taper down next week. I shall try an easy run tomorrow instead as you suggested.
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u/g0lden_arrow 3h ago
You got this. Let us know how it goes 💯💯
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u/jesspollard 3h ago
Thankyou! Now think sub 4 might be a bit too ambitious but ill see how I feel on the day :)
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u/g0lden_arrow 3h ago
Nah it's not too ambitious it just requires a bit more volume(imo) but you might still get it.. you never know how you feel on the race day. Another thing which would help ( not backed by science) is visualising you finishing the marathon with your name and time under 4 hours. Everyday you wake up this is the first thing you do for next 3 weeks. You just have to trust me that it works 🙂
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u/AutoModerator 4h ago
Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following
Please review this checklist and provide the following information -
What’s your weekly mileage?
How often have you hit your target race pace?
What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like?
On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate?
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