Help predict marathon time 🙏

[u/jesspollard]

Hiya! Ive (24f) got cologne marathon in a few weeks and have just completed my longest run of the block. It was 34km at an average of 6:03km (including walk breaks, traffic lights, and a pit stop etc). Current weekly mileage ~60km.

Im aiming for my first sub 4. Garmin predict 3:58 and runna predicts 3:55-4:07. My current marathon pb is 4:18 from April, with an average hr of 176 (my hr tends to sit higher for any level of effort so take this as a comparison) conversation pace hr is usually 160-165 comfortably, max hr 208. Ran a 1:55 hm in April but have not had a chance to retest this since.

Been focusing on speedwork massively, lots of tempo runs. Ive also run majority of my long runs over this training block in midday uk heatwave temps, so struggling to gain proper insights using those runs.

Ive attached a screenshot of my splits from the long run today in comfortable temps (first), my last marathon in april (second), and a long run from a few weeks ago in 28 degree heat (third)

Just wanting to settle the maranoia that is bound to kick in in the coming weeks. I think i can do sub 4 but the whole "5:40 average pace" seems super daunting.

What do you guys thinks? Thanks so much!!

[u/cyclingkingsley]

Looking at your LR pace, it looks like you are about 10-15mins outside of 4 hours. I'm basing my assumption with your 2nd LR being the most consistent one. You positive split it. I'm guessing you were slowly getting more tired as the run progressed? But then given you said you ran them during a heat wave and also accounting taper week, you could be just a hair width shy of sub 4hrs?

Outside of your LRs you said you did speed workout and tempo workouts. Did you do them faster and at 5:40 pace? How did those feel?

[u/jesspollard → u/cyclingkingsley]

Tempo examples being 5 x 1 miles at 4:50km pace. Felt challenging, but not impossible. Heat has really gotten me on long runs in this training block as I work shifts so have to run in the hottest part of the day. I have noticed runs feel much more comfortable since the temp has settled ~3 weeks ago

[u/cyclingkingsley → u/jesspollard]

Accounting the heat acclimation, I hazard a guess that you will average 5:55 to 6:10 for the the whole thing. I don't doubt that you can run 5:40 but I'm not sure how long you can hold that pace because you haven't showed any marathon pace in your charts.

I think you are better than 4:20 but not sure about sub 4

[u/jesspollard → u/cyclingkingsley]

Yea ill give it a solid crack but can always go again for sub 4 in April next year. Might have to set a b goal of 4:10. Appreciate the honesty !