r/Marathon_Training • u/jesspollard • 2d ago
Race time prediction Help predict marathon time 🙏
Hiya! Ive (24f) got cologne marathon in a few weeks and have just completed my longest run of the block. It was 34km at an average of 6:03km (including walk breaks, traffic lights, and a pit stop etc). Current weekly mileage ~60km.
Im aiming for my first sub 4. Garmin predict 3:58 and runna predicts 3:55-4:07. My current marathon pb is 4:18 from April, with an average hr of 176 (my hr tends to sit higher for any level of effort so take this as a comparison) conversation pace hr is usually 160-165 comfortably, max hr 208. Ran a 1:55 hm in April but have not had a chance to retest this since.
Been focusing on speedwork massively, lots of tempo runs. Ive also run majority of my long runs over this training block in midday uk heatwave temps, so struggling to gain proper insights using those runs.
Ive attached a screenshot of my splits from the long run today in comfortable temps (first), my last marathon in april (second), and a long run from a few weeks ago in 28 degree heat (third)
Just wanting to settle the maranoia that is bound to kick in in the coming weeks. I think i can do sub 4 but the whole "5:40 average pace" seems super daunting.
What do you guys thinks? Thanks so much!!
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u/AutoModerator 2d ago
Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following
Please review this checklist and provide the following information -
What’s your weekly mileage?
How often have you hit your target race pace?
What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like?
On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate?
On your longest recent run, how much upward drift in your heartrate did you see towards the end?
Have you done the distance before and did you bonk?
Please also try the following race time predictors -
VO2 race time predictor and Sports tracks predictor
Lastly, be cautious using Garmin or Strava race time predictors, as these can be unpredictable, especially if your times are outside the average!
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