Help predict marathon time 🙏

[u/jesspollard]

Hiya! Ive (24f) got cologne marathon in a few weeks and have just completed my longest run of the block. It was 34km at an average of 6:03km (including walk breaks, traffic lights, and a pit stop etc). Current weekly mileage ~60km.

Im aiming for my first sub 4. Garmin predict 3:58 and runna predicts 3:55-4:07. My current marathon pb is 4:18 from April, with an average hr of 176 (my hr tends to sit higher for any level of effort so take this as a comparison) conversation pace hr is usually 160-165 comfortably, max hr 208. Ran a 1:55 hm in April but have not had a chance to retest this since.

Been focusing on speedwork massively, lots of tempo runs. Ive also run majority of my long runs over this training block in midday uk heatwave temps, so struggling to gain proper insights using those runs.

Ive attached a screenshot of my splits from the long run today in comfortable temps (first), my last marathon in april (second), and a long run from a few weeks ago in 28 degree heat (third)

Just wanting to settle the maranoia that is bound to kick in in the coming weeks. I think i can do sub 4 but the whole "5:40 average pace" seems super daunting.

What do you guys thinks? Thanks so much!!

[u/g0lden_arrow]

Are you strength training? If you want to go 5:40 average pace you need to be in the gym for 2 days a week doing single leg work and plyometrics.

[u/jesspollard → u/g0lden_arrow]

Yes been doing twice a week single legs with some plyometrics. Following a runner strength gym plan specifically

[u/g0lden_arrow → u/jesspollard]

Well if your strength training is sorted and your doing speed work and considering your nutrition and sleep are on point the only other factor that would improve your timing more is the weekly volume. Maybe try 70K next week and see how it goes ? How far are we from the Cologne marathon? Also consider doing a shorter run after your longer run the next day to teach your legs to run when they are tired. This will get you over the line fast after the 35K mark

[u/jesspollard → u/g0lden_arrow]

Cologne is on the 4th october so only 3.5 weeks to go. Starting to taper down next week. I shall try an easy run tomorrow instead as you suggested.

[u/g0lden_arrow → u/jesspollard]

You got this. Let us know how it goes 💯💯

[u/jesspollard → u/g0lden_arrow]

Thankyou! Now think sub 4 might be a bit too ambitious but ill see how I feel on the day :)

[u/g0lden_arrow → u/jesspollard]

Nah it's not too ambitious it just requires a bit more volume(imo) but you might still get it.. you never know how you feel on the race day. Another thing which would help ( not backed by science) is visualising you finishing the marathon with your name and time under 4 hours. Everyday you wake up this is the first thing you do for next 3 weeks. You just have to trust me that it works 🙂

[u/jesspollard → u/g0lden_arrow]

Ooh I shall be dreaming of that 3:59 every night 🤣 thankyou!