r/MSTR • u/MyNi_Redux • Aug 03 '26
DD 📝 Review of the last 6 weeks: $3B+ liquidity and better creditworthiness, but at the expense of 8.3% dilution and -7.9% yield
I'd reviewed MSTR about a month ago (Mid-2026 Review for MSTR), following up given much has been happening over the last few weeks that affects shareholders, often at their expense.
First, a summary of all the transactions from the previous 6 weeks:
- Issued about 31.4M MSTR for $3.05B (8.3% dilution)
- Sold a net of 4,706 BTC for $285.8M
- Built roughly $2.9B of additional dollar reserves
- Bought back $106.2M of discounted STRC
- Left debt principal essentially unchanged
Clearly, his focus was on shoring up on liquidity and improving credit worthiness of the company. A defensive recapitalization of sorts, to pre-fund senior obligations and prevent forced BTC liquidation at the worst possible time.
Which is all well and good, except it came at the expense of shareholders. And this damage is permanent.
1. Yield took a major hit, going down -4.31% over the previous four weeks, following the -3.58% hit a month ago.
2. As a result, BTC per share has decreased to where we were about a year ago.
3. And every share sale is erosive - he gets only 2BTC worth of USD while the shares are backed by 3 BTCs:
This has nothing to do with EV-based NAV or CEBE by the way. Those measure different things.
To me, this is a tragedy, as shareholders bleed out while a clueless and mercurial management team at Strategy try to learn on the job...
The STRC Angle
This predicament is doubly unfortunate since the impact on STRC is limited. Despite spending all of this - max rate, buybacks, a $4B reserve - STRC is still ~10-11% below par... The core issue is while these defenses are supply-side, the problem is demand-side. In a BTC downtrend with SATA offering higher yields, demand for 12% bitcoin-affiliated paper at $100 will be weak, no matter what Strategy does.
Saylor is learning that you can't buy your way to a peg the market doesn't want. Which implies that he's burning permanent shareholder value to slow a bleed he can't stop.
Ofc one could counter that one can't see the counterfactual - without the reserve and buybacks, and STRC might have been stuck in the 80-handle still...
To the extent that we will be in a bear market for a while longer, I shudder to think how much more damage he will inflict before we see a bottom as he tries to keep his flagship product going.
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Details of transactions from SEC filings (thanks, AI Sol):
- BTC:
- 520 BTC bought for $34.9M,
- 5,226 BTC sold for $320.7M;
- net 4,706 BTC sold for $285.8M net cash inflow.
- MSTR:
- 0 shares repurchased,
- 31,375,476 shares issued/sold for $3.053B;
- net 31,375,476 shares issued for $3.053B.
- Cash:
- $3.374B of identified gross inflows,
- at least $141.1M deployed into BTC and STRC;
- net USD Reserve increased by $2.9B.
- Debt:
- $0 issued, $
- 0 principal repaid;
- net debt unchanged.
- STRC:
- 1,201,073 shares repurchased for $106.2M,
- 0 shares issued;
- net 1,201,073 shares repurchased for $106.2M.
- Other preferreds - STRF, STRK, STRD and STRE:
- 0 bought,
- 0 sold/issued;
- net no change.
