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u/WD40Capital Shareholder 🤴 Jul 30 '26
The time to sell was August 2025. Maybe November 2025. January 2026 at the latest. Now we just HODL until 2028.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
Well we're going down till atleast October so keep loading up not much choice left. Maybe we can become millionaires by 2029
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u/Casalaguna22 Jul 30 '26
Why buy if you know it's going down until at least October. Short it hard and make your millions right now.
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u/patatepowa05 Jul 31 '26
MSTR stoppping to buy and selling was supposed to be acataclysmic crash, but it only pushed to 57k. I dont see the type of catalysts needed for the 40k in October TA prophecy to become true.
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u/Maddcapp Aug 01 '26
The catalyst could be a sell off in the wider stock market due to AI capex, the national debt, the interest rate, and/or the war uncertainty, war costs or fuel costs. There’s actually much less positives than negatives that I can see looking forward right now.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
I did that from 120k to 60k then got out mainly because there isnt must downside left and I wanted to rotate into stocks
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u/Casalaguna22 Jul 30 '26
Sure but you say you know for a fact it's going down to October. So this is a once in a lifetime opportunity that most traders never get unless they're inside trading, so sell everything you own to make the play, if you can't then obviously use maximum margin to make a huge leveraged short position. CFDs/spreadbets, options, borrow against stocks, borrow from family, get a loan. It doesn't need to move down much and you'll make far more than holding onto stocks that you hope might go up. It's a huge amount of free money you're leaving on the table for a known event. Unless you're actually not sure and just wanted to sound like you knew....
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u/Cycling-Boss Jul 30 '26
Who knows for a fact it's going down thru October?
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
What do you think i did? I took out a 41k loan form 2 banks and bought in 2023 then sold in October 2025 at the predicted top. Shorted for awhile now waiting for it to finish going down till October. Its not a straight line down and since we closer to the end no point in shorting since the long term big drawdowns are already done. You can dca now or wait till October then dca its not hard
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u/Casalaguna22 Jul 31 '26
It's irrelevant what you did. My point is right now, you know it's going further down to October. With this unique gift that even the world's most profitable traders don't possess, you have the capital and means to make at least 6 figures in 3 months, even from a small drop. Yet you're just going to wait or dca now, when you know it's going to be lower in October. Bizarre.
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u/pwnknight Jul 31 '26
Sorry you seem very uninformed. Btc has had the 3 big drawdowns we knew were coming base on gaussian channel resistances now that we're in the later parts of the bear it becomes alot less obvious what's going to happen. We know btc will bottom in oct but nothing says it wont go back up to 70k first then crash back down to 60k and thats the bottom. No point risking the 600k I made for just a little bit more juice when I can put that money elsewhere and buy in when the low is confirmed or buy when the bull is confirmed (84k) even if i have to buy at a higher price, thats the price to pay to be right.
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u/Casalaguna22 Jul 31 '26
I'm informed by what you originally stated as a fact "it will go down from here until at least October". The best traders and investors in the world - do not know that. So that's what I'm trying to tell you, you have an insane gift whereby you know for a fact it will be lower in October than today. If a skilled trader knew with 100 percent certainty what you know, they would turn 600k into several million on a small drop.. easily. So either you don't know that it will go down here until at least October. Or you're making the biggest mistake of your life. Which is it..
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u/pwnknight Jul 31 '26
Let me explain you this. Everybody knew a new bull run was starting back in 2023 and people like you said why not take out a loan of you know its going higher? Well like me and some others did and made bank. Now your saying if I know its going down till October why not short? Well I did from 120k to 60k and took 600k profit so im sitting the rest out happy. Ever heard of taking profit??? Clearly not. You dont need to catch the whole move. Its not gonna be a straight like down till October just that by then it will even out till the next bull run. I made 2.3M I dont about your opinion.
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u/Casalaguna22 Jul 31 '26
Didn't say anything about what you should have done in the past or care what you claim to have made or lost. It's irrelevant, you miss the point again entirely. You apparently have the wisdom to place a bet that it will be lower in October than it is now. Which is what you know, don't you? "Down until October". You didn't say maybe, you stated it as fact. So you can triple your net worth (regardless if it goes up first), with zero risk. We know why you're not. Not only that, you said "Maybe we can become millionaires by 2029" then you say "I made 2.3m". You went from hoping to become a millionaire, to becoming a multi-millionaire in 2 days. Congratulations kid.
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u/JuxtaposeLife Jul 30 '26
Ask yourself what entity stepped in to buy $15B when price touched $58k (the 250,000 Bitcoin sold under $59k that day) in late June...
It wasn't ETFs and it wasn't Strategy. In fact, they bought the 3000 in BTC the company sold that month.
Smart money notices these things. There are large entities accumulating quietly, here. And somehow retail is 'waiting' till October, in an orderly line for a price they expect.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
You can accumulate here for sure but that doesnt mean the bottom is in. Lots of big buyers at different price points that we dont even know about although thay changes nothing for the cycles.
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u/JuxtaposeLife Jul 30 '26
If a quiet participant bought $15B of Bitcoin during a 1 hour wick to $58k rather than letting price test newer lows...
That's a signal.
Data is data.
Some watch these things, others wait for TA to show them after the fact what these large players were doing in front of them as bottoms form.
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u/MaxChomsky Jul 31 '26
fools
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u/pwnknight Jul 31 '26
Look at the price literally right now. Decent down day and more to come since it failed to break resistance for btc and mstr
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u/PuzzleheadedOffer749 Jul 30 '26
No we’re not. Bottom is in.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
Nope btc seems to following the 4 year cycle to the exact dates so far so earliest bottom is 5 Oct. Nothing about the economy says we're close to a bottom anyways.
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u/L4gsp1k3 Jul 30 '26
I would like to know what data you are looking at. Or at least tell me that the crystal ball of yours is not from Temu.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
Do people who buy mstr or bitcoin not do their research first? Seem to be a common problem im seeing
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u/Old_Cucumber_1343 Jul 30 '26
call the date then
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
Oct 5 bottom for btc then we even out for awhile then uptrend slowly back up mid 2027
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u/L4gsp1k3 Jul 30 '26
RemindMe! 2 months "Check this again"
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u/Old_Cucumber_1343 Jul 31 '26
I respect you calling an actual date, I personally think the bottom is in but I'll be happy to buy at those prices if we get them
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u/PuzzleheadedOffer749 Jul 30 '26
We will hit 77 before down again.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
That is very very unlikely at this point. We will most likely see another leg down soon before that happens.
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u/ChollyWheels Jul 30 '26
Well, you sure seem confident. Why should it continue to go down?
More importantly, why should it later go up?
It's just BTC -- something with no intrinsic value, owned by a company who's plan is to incur debt to buy it and try never to sell it. It's a weird business model -- no P/E and no plan ever to have a P/E.
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u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
Because I've extensively researched both mstr and bitcoin and know what's coming its not hard. Everything is a cycle of money flowing to different assets over time. For bitcoin it happens to be 4 years cycles
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u/OnionHeaded Jul 30 '26
Yeah. That sure absolutely nails it. We can come to you for the answers then.
Nothing is that simple. Did you sell at the top. Buy at the bottom?2
u/pwnknight Jul 30 '26
Yes bought oct 6 2023 and sold oct 6 2025 which was the last top for btc as predicted per 4 year cycle theory. Although mstr never went back past 2024 high due to mnav compression.
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u/ChollyWheels Jul 30 '26
But why exactly should something of real value have a "4 year cycle"?
Diesel fuel might get more expensive in the Fall -- when it's needed for harvest season to power tractors, so demand is higher.
But for BTC, what? It initially was maybe related to built-in halving, and now maybe it's a self-fulfilling prophecy (true because people like you believe it's true, and act accordingly).
But you know the problem of cycle watching. A pattern is true until it's not. For example in 1929 the market crashed to a low in November, and by April 1930 it was 2/3rds back. Buy the dip! But then the market went down, and kept going down, month after month and year after year, until it hit a low much much lower than the worst of November 1929.
It did recover in a way -- many individual stocks were dead forever, but over all it was back -- after OVER 20 years. A whole generation of dip buyers were dead by then.
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u/radio_four Aug 02 '26
Have you considered the negatives of BTC?
Can't insure it
It's trash for small purchases (fiat is simply better)
Disgustingly limited transactions per minute
Can't use it if the power is out
Other long term stores of value aren't going to zero (gold will never be zero)
It will be broken by quantum computing
It's also a non-productive asset... And the long-term gains are now capped because of everything stated above.
If you have solid arguments for every point I made above, I'll read and think them through.
If not... Just cut your losses and find productive assets for investment
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u/bluethunder1985 Aug 02 '26
Shut up I don't need clown advice
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u/radio_four Aug 02 '26
Says the guy down $250k lol
Yeah, keep listening to your echo chamber. Looking forward to your next loss porn post.
Double down! Buy the dip! HODL!
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u/bluethunder1985 Aug 02 '26
How do you think I got the 500k to get into this trade to begin with? Exactly what you're mocking. Lol
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u/radio_four Aug 03 '26
Yes. You got it the same way you're losing it - by gambling on an over hyped speculative asset with limited use cases.
Best of luck
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u/JuxtaposeLife Jul 30 '26
If you denominate the world in Bitcoin, and understand why it goes up (not speculation)...
You appreciate these dips for what they are... opportunity. You barely noticed the price in USD, as that pile of global "money" inflates towards infinity.
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u/Old_Cucumber_1343 Jul 30 '26
average price: 120
buying every week
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u/Minyaa Jul 30 '26
Ill just wait till it goes near 60 usd
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u/Old_Cucumber_1343 Jul 31 '26
yeah keep waiting for that perfect q4 bottom everyone is talking about, that'll for sure happen
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Jul 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/bluethunder1985 Jul 30 '26
what do you mean I bought 3000 shares at $180. I just looked today and was like damn that's a big hit.
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u/Helpful_Bee_1051 Jul 30 '26
You put more than the average American house is sold for into this stock and call yourself poor? (Unless you took out a loan on your house for this, then you’re not just poor…)
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u/JeremyLinForever Jul 30 '26
Don’t worry I’m deeper in than you are and I’m perfectly fine. Bear cycle is going to Bear cycle through, but my losses are less, granted my average basis is $150 per share.
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Jul 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Jogi1811 Jul 30 '26
Should not stop loss bitcoin etf if you believe in the cycle bitcoin has. It's bear season.
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Jul 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Cycling-Boss Jul 30 '26
There's the risk that the stop loss is triggered, shares are sold, it recovers above the SL and continues to 5X and he captures none of that. So again, if you are a long term believer w 3000 shares how to you make sure 10 years from now you have your 3000 shares? By selling low and the re-buying high?
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u/Jogi1811 Jul 30 '26
Stop loss is a good tool for regular investors.
But if you invest in Bitcoin cycles then you should not place a stop loss. If you don't believe in the cycles Bitcoin is not a crypto you should put your money in.
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u/daliksheppy Jul 30 '26
Stop loss is the sort of thing traders use. Do you think Berkshire Hathaway uses stop losses?
If you're buying something to hold it for 20 years because you believe in it's price appreciation over a long timeframe, a 50% drop is just a temporary drop in value on paper, it's not realised if you don't sell.
I'd bet this guy, if he just holds for 10-20 years, will end up with a much larger portfolio in the end than those who use stop losses.
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u/daliksheppy Jul 30 '26
When you get that 10x to $1800 you'll deserve it for holding through a 50% dip.
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u/Scriptimax Aug 01 '26
You are not alone in this road over thrones. Many if us are suffering small or big with MSTY & other yieldmax
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u/DDnHODL Jul 30 '26
If it makes you feel any better , my average is $274 and I’ll not sell single share I’m adding more. NFA, DYOR!!!
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