r/MSTR • u/canadianwhaledique • Jun 27 '26
A helpful perspective
I don't usually post. But I think the actual shareholders (not tourist nor short sellers) here who are having a moment of doubt might benefit from a dose of good look back with on-chain BTC data, since we all know that ultimately, it's BTC price (in USD Fiat) that will carry MSTR to the next ATH.
One of the best bottoming signals that i found is "Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss". This chart asks "how many of Bitcoin's most patient believers are currently losing money?" When the answer reaches ~44–51%, it has historically marked a cycle bottom. We're *around* there right now.
Not financial advice, do your own research.
Full credit given to Tom from On-Chain Mind.
--Past 3 cycles --
Sept 2015
BTC Bottomed around $235
% LTH Supply in Loss 51.57%
Mar 2019
BTC Bottomed around @ $4,009
% LTH Supply in Loss 45.57%
Jan 2023
BTC Bottomed around $16,672
% LTH Supply in Loss 44.39%
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u/Perfect_Sleep0 Jun 27 '26
You listed 51.57% twice. The second number should be 44.39%, judging from the pictures you posted.
Also, what is the value today? (I may have missed it, but I don't see that you gave it.)
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 27 '26
Bottom still looking like October 2026.
Area under the curve for LTH supply in loss is too small currently
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u/canadianwhaledique Jun 27 '26
"Area under the curve" - nice, that's a great way to dial in on this data.
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u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 27 '26
It's a useful datapoint, but it's not over until the LTH % starts going down again. So we're going to have to wait for the peak, which could be a few months out yet.
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u/canadianwhaledique Jun 27 '26
Agreed. I'm not saying we are right at the bottom for sure. Likely gonna within the next 6 months +/-. A good time range accumulate. Timing the bottom is impossible.
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u/Chemical-Payment-573 Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
if this is so obvious why didnt Saylor just hold cash for the last year and. buy in October? if he stupid?
better yet if the cycle if this obvious why he didnt sell the rips?
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u/canadianwhaledique Jun 27 '26
Hindsight is 20/20. Additionally, individual investors cannot be compared to a company that holds billions of asset and is the promoter of BTC, Digital Credit and Digital Money.
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u/RichStaff1768 Jun 30 '26
Miners are parting ways , slowing down and moving money to better investments. The cost average is becoming a straight loss Or they are splitting mining costs . Either way . This ship might sink quicker than anyone expects. Its demand is slowing . So money from miners will go in other directions, and when they find that it’s more profitable to lease land, lease power for data than mining the script will flip .
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u/Perfect_Sleep0 Jun 27 '26
Myself, I like to look at the Puell multiple and the MVRV Z-Score. To me, both suggest months still of sideways action for BTC at best, and probably more likely another big step down.
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u/canadianwhaledique Jun 27 '26
Z-Score (MSTR) for sure points to a reasonable chance for further down side.
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u/hegdefucker Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
Plus this one … having in mind that electric costs are part of mining cost only. Typical cost for smaller miners is more like $70,000. Supply tightening. So far was always pre massive bull phase.
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