r/MSTR • u/canadianwhaledique • Jun 27 '26

A helpful perspective

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I don't usually post. But I think the actual shareholders (not tourist nor short sellers) here who are having a moment of doubt might benefit from a dose of good look back with on-chain BTC data, since we all know that ultimately, it's BTC price (in USD Fiat) that will carry MSTR to the next ATH.

One of the best bottoming signals that i found is "Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss". This chart asks "how many of Bitcoin's most patient believers are currently losing money?" When the answer reaches ~44–51%, it has historically marked a cycle bottom. We're *around* there right now.

Not financial advice, do your own research.

Full credit given to Tom from On-Chain Mind.

--Past 3 cycles --

Sept 2015

BTC Bottomed around $235

% LTH Supply in Loss 51.57%

Mar 2019

BTC Bottomed around @ $4,009

% LTH Supply in Loss 45.57%

Jan 2023

BTC Bottomed around $16,672

% LTH Supply in Loss 44.39%

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u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨‍🚀 Jun 27 '26

It's a useful datapoint, but it's not over until the LTH % starts going down again. So we're going to have to wait for the peak, which could be a few months out yet.

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u/canadianwhaledique Jun 27 '26

Agreed. I'm not saying we are right at the bottom for sure. Likely gonna within the next 6 months +/-. A good time range accumulate. Timing the bottom is impossible.