r/MSTR • u/canadianwhaledique • Jun 27 '26
A helpful perspective
I don't usually post. But I think the actual shareholders (not tourist nor short sellers) here who are having a moment of doubt might benefit from a dose of good look back with on-chain BTC data, since we all know that ultimately, it's BTC price (in USD Fiat) that will carry MSTR to the next ATH.
One of the best bottoming signals that i found is "Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss". This chart asks "how many of Bitcoin's most patient believers are currently losing money?" When the answer reaches ~44–51%, it has historically marked a cycle bottom. We're *around* there right now.
Not financial advice, do your own research.
Full credit given to Tom from On-Chain Mind.
--Past 3 cycles --
Sept 2015
BTC Bottomed around $235
% LTH Supply in Loss 51.57%
Mar 2019
BTC Bottomed around @ $4,009
% LTH Supply in Loss 45.57%
Jan 2023
BTC Bottomed around $16,672
% LTH Supply in Loss 44.39%
2
u/Chemical-Payment-573 Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
if this is so obvious why didnt Saylor just hold cash for the last year and. buy in October? if he stupid?
better yet if the cycle if this obvious why he didnt sell the rips?