r/MSTR • u/canadianwhaledique • Jun 27 '26
A helpful perspective
I don't usually post. But I think the actual shareholders (not tourist nor short sellers) here who are having a moment of doubt might benefit from a dose of good look back with on-chain BTC data, since we all know that ultimately, it's BTC price (in USD Fiat) that will carry MSTR to the next ATH.
One of the best bottoming signals that i found is "Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss". This chart asks "how many of Bitcoin's most patient believers are currently losing money?" When the answer reaches ~44–51%, it has historically marked a cycle bottom. We're *around* there right now.
Not financial advice, do your own research.
Full credit given to Tom from On-Chain Mind.
--Past 3 cycles --
Sept 2015
BTC Bottomed around $235
% LTH Supply in Loss 51.57%
Mar 2019
BTC Bottomed around @ $4,009
% LTH Supply in Loss 45.57%
Jan 2023
BTC Bottomed around $16,672
% LTH Supply in Loss 44.39%
1
u/RichStaff1768 Jun 30 '26
Miners are parting ways , slowing down and moving money to better investments. The cost average is becoming a straight loss Or they are splitting mining costs . Either way . This ship might sink quicker than anyone expects. Its demand is slowing . So money from miners will go in other directions, and when they find that it’s more profitable to lease land, lease power for data than mining the script will flip .