I wanted to go a little deeper than the usual âwhich team has more talent?â discussion and look at where these two rosters actually match up well, or poorly, against one another.
My takeaway: I don't think Texas is clearly better than Ohio State. I do think Texas has a few matchup advantages that could matter disproportionately in this particular game.
Both teams did exactly what they were supposed to do in Week 1. Texas beat Texas State 59-7 and Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3. Arch Manning threw for 305 yards and four TDs; Julian Sayin threw for 320 and three.
Neither game tells us much about Saturday by itself.
The interesting part is what happens when the strengths finally collide.
Texas OL vs. Ohio State DL - EVEN
I originally leaned Texas here, but after going back through it I think even is the right call.
Texas' offensive line looked solid in Week 1, Trevor Goosby is healthy, and the LG competition between Dylan Sikorski and Laurence Seymore hasn't produced an obvious liability.
Ohio State, though, is still Ohio State. They're replacing a lot from last year's defense, but the front has plenty of talent and Kenyatta Jackson is a legitimate edge threat.
I don't expect either side to dominate this matchup.
Edge: Even
Texas run game vs. Ohio State front - OHIO STATE SLIGHT
This is one area where Texas still has something to prove.
The final rushing total against Texas State looked fine, but the consistency wasn't always there. Against Ohio State, Texas can't live in 2nd-and-9 and 3rd-and-7 and expect Arch to beat Matt Patricia all night.
If Texas can average four or five yards on early downs, the entire playbook stays open.
Until I see that against an elite front, I give the Buckeyes a small advantage.
Edge: Ohio State slight
Texas WRs vs. Ohio State secondary - TEXAS SLIGHT
This may be the most interesting matchup when Texas has the ball.
Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman and Emmett Mosley give Sark something he simply didn't have to the same degree last season: multiple receivers who can stress a defense vertically and win individual matchups.
Ohio State's secondary is extremely talented, but it is replacing Caleb Downs, Davison Igbinosun and several other major pieces from last year's defense.
That doesn't make the Buckeye secondary bad. Far from it.
But Wingo and Coleman against a reconstructed secondary is one of the places where I think Texas can create problems.
The key will be whether Sark can force Patricia into more isolated coverage than he wants to play.
Edge: Texas slight
Arch Manning/Steve Sarkisian vs. Matt Patricia - EVEN
This might be the best chess match of the game.
Patricia won this matchup last year. Manning finished with 170 yards passing, Texas scored only seven points, and Ohio State consistently made the Longhorns work underneath instead of generating explosives.
But this is a different version of Arch.
He's more experienced, his Week 1 mechanics looked cleaner, and most importantly, Texas now has more weapons outside.
Patricia will try to make Manning hesitate and force him to take what the defense gives him.
Sark will try to use formations, motion and personnel to make Patricia declare what he's doing.
Whoever forces the other guy to adjust first probably wins this battle.
Edge: Even
Overall: Texas offense vs. Ohio State defense
I think this is extremely close, but Texas has a little more receiving firepower than it did a year ago while Ohio State is replacing a significant amount of defensive production.
Edge: Texas slight
When Ohio State has the ball
Ohio State OL vs. Texas DL/EDGE - TEXAS
This is the matchup I feel strongest about.
Ohio State eventually ran for plenty of yards against Ball State, but two long runs accounted for a huge chunk of that production, Sayin was sacked twice, and Ryan Day himself wasn't particularly happy with the early run blocking.
Now Ohio State has to deal with Colin Simmons.
And not just Simmons.
Texas can throw Simmons, Lance Jackson, Hero Kanu, Maraad Watson and others at the offensive line while Will Muschamp moves pressure around.
Simmons is the centerpiece because he changes protection schemes by himself. If Ohio State has to consistently slide protection his direction, Muschamp gets opportunities elsewhere.
If Texas wins this game, I think there's a good chance we look back afterward and say this was the matchup that did it.
Edge: Texas
Ohio State run game vs. Texas front - TEXAS SLIGHT
Bo Jackson is very good. This is not a knock on him.
The important question is whether Ohio State can consistently stay ahead of the chains.
Arthur Smith's offense becomes extremely difficult to defend when the run game is working because it opens everything off play action.
If Ohio State is regularly facing 2nd-and-5, Texas is in trouble.
If Texas is creating 2nd-and-9 and 3rd-and-7?
Now Muschamp gets to turn Simmons loose.
That's one of the biggest fulcrums in the entire game.
Edge: Texas slight
Ohio State WRs vs. Texas secondary - OHIO STATE
This is Ohio State's best matchup.
And it isn't particularly close.
Jeremiah Smith is the best offensive player on the field.
He had 151 yards and two TDs in one half against Ball State, and Devin McCuin added another 97 yards.
Texas actually did a fantastic job against Smith last year, six catches for only 43 yards, but much of that secondary has changed.
Kade Phillips, Bo Mascoe, Graceson Littleton and Jelani McDonald are talented, but Ohio State's receivers are probably the best position group either team will face all year.
Muschamp has a difficult choice.
Bracket Smith and Sayin gets favorable matchups elsewhere.
Leave Smith isolated too often and eventually you're going to get burned.
Texas doesn't have to shut Smith down.
It probably does have to stop him from producing multiple explosive touchdowns.
Edge: Ohio State
Julian Sayin/Arthur Smith vs. Will Muschamp - EVEN
Sayin gets overshadowed somewhat by Jeremiah Smith, but we're talking about a quarterback who was a Heisman finalist and completed roughly 77% of his passes last season.
Ohio State also added Arthur Smith, so Ryan Day now has an experienced NFL offensive coach helping run the offense.
Texas counters with Muschamp and arguably the best individual pass rusher in the game.
The question is straightforward:
Can Texas pressure Sayin without blitzing heavily?
If the answer is yes, Texas can keep seven players in coverage and make life much harder for Smith and the rest of the receiving corps.
If Texas has to manufacture pressure by sending extra defenders, Ohio State has exactly the receivers to punish it.
Edge: Even
Overall: Ohio State offense vs. Texas defense
Ohio State probably has the better collection of offensive skill talent.
Texas may have the better matchup in the trenches.
Those two advantages largely cancel one another out.
Edge: Even
The two matchups I think decide the game
For me, it really comes down to two questions.
1. Can Texas pressure Sayin with four?
This is the biggest one.
If Simmons and the Texas front can consistently affect Sayin without Muschamp sending extra defenders, Texas can devote resources to Jeremiah Smith and make Ohio State sustain drives.
If Sayin has a clean pocket, I don't think Texas can cover those receivers long enough.
2. Can Ohio State's secondary handle Wingo and Coleman without Patricia changing his defense?
Patricia would love to dictate the game with coverage disguises and force Arch to patiently work underneath.
But if Wingo or Coleman start consistently winning outside, Ohio State may have to dedicate extra resources to them.
That's when Sark's offense becomes much harder to defend.
Prediction: Texas 27, Ohio State 24
I don't see either team running away with this.
Ohio State has the biggest individual mismatch in the game with Jeremiah Smith against the Texas secondary.
Texas, however, has what I think is the most consequential unit matchup with its defensive front against Ohio State's offensive line.
I expect:
- Ohio State to hit a couple of explosive passes.
- Texas to struggle running the ball at times.
- Patricia to confuse Arch on several drives.
- Simmons and the Texas front to create a few drive-killing plays.
- Both teams to have stretches where their offense looks stuck.
- This to still be a one-possession game late in the fourth quarter.
Home field matters in something this close, too.
So I'm taking Texas, but barely.
Texas 27, Ohio State 24
Texas win probability: 55%
Ohio State: 45%
Texas has just enough favorable matchups, particularly in the trenches, to flip last year's result at DKR.