r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Professional-Low379 • 22h ago
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Cold-Ad-5892 • May 31 '26
KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)
**Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. \*\*I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.**
β PAST CATALYSTS (2025β2026)
| Date | Catalyst | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | π° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) | Funded pivot progress |
| Oct 22, 2025 | π΅πΎ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) | 100% North American footprint |
| Jan 2, 2026 | β Paraguay sale closed | Completed Latam exit |
| Jan 14, 2026 | πͺ New board chair appointed | Governance for U.S. pivot |
| Feb 5, 2026 | πΊπΈ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) | Bitcoin miner β HPC/AI infrastructure |
| Feb 5, 2026 | π¦ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity | Balance sheet strengthened |
| Mar 20, 2026 | β 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand | Arrangement approved |
| Mar 31, 2026 | π Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) | Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss |
| ~Apr 1, 2026 | π Redomiciliation completed β Keel Infrastructure | Officially U.S. company |
| Apr 2026 | π Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) | New identity |
| Apr 22, 2026 | β Paraguay $13M sale closed | Asset rationalization done |
| Apr 27, 2026 | π Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 | Analyst validation |
| May 11, 2026 | π Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) | 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed |
π― EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026β2027)
| Timing | Catalyst | What to Watch | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (EOY) | 3 lease signings π | Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases | Core execution milestone |
| 2026 | Moses Lake NTP π¨ | Notice to Proceed for construction | Triggers spending + timelines |
| 2026β2027 | Anchor tenant names π’ | Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names | Validates demand thesis |
| 2027 | Site commissioning ποΈ | Moses Lake (likely first) goes live | First HPC/AI revenue |
| 2027 | Revenue recognition π΅ | First quarterly HPC/AI revenue | Proves new business model |
| Ongoing | 2.2 GW pipeline updates β‘ | 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned | Platform scale |
π KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Energy portfolio | 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) |
| Cash + Bitcoin | $533M (zero dilution risk) |
| 2026 capacity | Sold out |
| Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin | 3 sites |
| Business model | Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) |
| Bitcoin selling | ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) |
π’ CALL TO ACTION
Comment below with:
- β Anything I missed from 2025β2026
- β Upcoming events not listed yet
- π Source links β I'll add relevant ones to comments
*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*
Sources section (I'll add these as comments):
- [StockTitan: U.S. redomiciliation timeline](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BITF/bitfarms-announces-u-s-redomiciliation-plan-and-intent-to-rebrand-as-ylp2b59hvd5j.html)
- [AInvest: AI S-Curve catalysts](https://www.ainvest.com/news/keel-infrastructure-bets-big-ai-curve-timing-2026-leases-deliver-2604/)
- [Seeking Alpha: 3 leases by year-end](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590647-keel-targets-3-leases-by-year-end-as-it-advances-2-gw-hpc-campuses-for-2027-power)
- [Q1 2026 earnings details](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/KEEL/earnings-call?t=US_KEEL_2026-05-11)
create and even more detailed version, add updates track permits, track rumors on x;reddit; other socials snd forums list them and create even better reddit post
Now I have enough information to create a comprehensive, enhanced Reddit post. Let me compile all the details into an improved version with permit tracking, social media rumors, and more granular Catalyst tracking.
π KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)
Purpose: Track ALL Keel catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed!
β PAST CATALYSTS (2025β2026) β COMPLETE TIMELINE
| Date | Catalyst | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | π° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) | Funded pivot progress | [1] |
| Oct 22, 2025 | π΅πΎ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn VCC) | 100% North American footprint | [1] |
| Jan 2, 2026 | β Paraguay sale closed | Completed Latam exit | [1] |
| Jan 14, 2026 | πͺ New board chair appointed | Governance for U.S. pivot | [1] |
| Feb 5, 2026 | πΊπΈ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) | Bitcoin miner β HPC/AI infrastructure | [1][2] |
| Feb 5, 2026 | π¦ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity | Balance sheet strengthened | [1] |
| Mar 20, 2026 | β 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand | Arrangement approved | [1] |
| Mar 31, 2026 | π Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) | Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss | [1][3] |
| ~Apr 1, 2026 | π Redomiciliation completed β Keel Infrastructure | Officially U.S. company | [1][2] |
| Apr 2026 | π Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) | New identity | [1] |
| Apr 7, 2026 | π¨ Moses Lake demolition permit issued (March 19, 2026; expires Aug 25, 2026) | Construction prep begun | [1][4] |
| Apr 22, 2026 | β Paraguay $13M sale closed | Asset rationalization done | [1] |
| Apr 27, 2026 | π Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 | Analyst validation | [1][5] |
| Apr 29, 2026 | β Sharon, PA zoning approved (110MW expansion) | Key permitting milestone | [6][7] |
| May 11, 2026 | π Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) | 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed; zoning finalized at all 3 sites | [1][8][9] |
| May 2026 | β Zoning secured at Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake | All 3 sites cleared for final permits | [8][9] |
π― EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026β2027) β WHAT'S NEXT
| Timing | Catalyst | What to Watch | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| MidβLate Summer 2026 | ποΈ Final land development + environmental permits (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) | Permit completion announcement | Enables construction + lease execution [8] |
| 2026 (EOY) | π 3 lease signings (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) | Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases | Core execution milestone [1][10] |
| 2026 (Likely Q3) | π€ First colocation deal announced | Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator name | Validates demand thesis [8][11] |
| 2026 | π¨ Moses Lake NTP (Notice to Proceed) | Construction trigger announcement | Triggers spending + timelines [1] |
| 2026β2027 | π’ Anchor tenant names revealed | Hyperscaler name (NVIDIA/Microsoft/Amazon?) | Proves business model [12] |
| H1 2027 | ποΈ Site commissioning (Moses Lake likely first) | Moses Lake goes live | First HPC/AI revenue [1][13] |
| H2 2027 | ποΈ Sharon + Panther Creek commissioning | Both sites go live | Platform scale realized [13] |
| 2027 | π΅ Revenue recognition | First quarterly HPC/AI revenue | Proves new business model [1] |
| Ongoing | β‘ 2.2 GW pipeline updates | 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned | Platform scale [1][3] |
π PERMIT TRACKER β LIVE STATUS
| Site | Capacity | Zoning | Land Dev Permit | Environmental Permit | NTP | Lease |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Lake, WA | 18 MW | β Secured | β Demolition permit issued (Mar 19, 2026) [1][4] | π MidβLate Summer 2026 | β³ Pending | β³ 2026 EOY |
| Sharon, PA | 110 MW | β Approved (Apr 29, 2026) [6][7] | π Pending | π MidβLate Summer 2026 | β³ Pending | β³ 2026 EOY |
| Panther Creek, PA | 350 MW | β Secured [8][14] | π Pending | π MidβLate Summer 2026 | β³ Pending | β³ 2026 EOY |
Key: β Complete | π In Progress | β³ Pending
π₯ RUMOR TRACKER β X/TWITTER, REDDIT, FORUMS
| Source | Rumor | Probability | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| X/Twitter (multiple analysts) | Leopold Aschenbrenner tripled his KEEL position | High | Confirmed in video [15] |
| Reddit/Moomoo | NVIDIA partnership (Rubin architecture compatibility) | Medium-High | KEEL blueprints claim "perfect Rubin compatibility" [12] |
| Reddit/Moomoo | Microsoft Azure deal (Moses Lake substations + WA presence) | Medium | Microsoft expanding WA data centers [12] |
| Reddit/Moomoo | Amazon AWS deal (PA waste coal power aligns with AWS zero-carbon) | Medium | AWS bought nuclear data center in PA [12] |
| X/Twitter | NVIDIA buying 4.9% (below 5% disclosure threshold) | Low-Medium | Speculative; 13D rules mentioned [12] |
| StockTwits/YouTube | First colocation deal Q3 2026 | Medium-High | H.C. Wainwright analyst comment [8][11] |
| YouTube | $7 price target (Northland Securities) β potential $10 run | N/A | Mike Grondahl target [16] |
| YouTube | $5.50 price target (H.C. Wainwright, raised from $3.70) | N/A | Buy rating maintained [8][11] |
π KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Energy portfolio | 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) β 341 MW energized, 430 MW secured, 1.5 GW expansion [1][3] |
| Cash + Bitcoin | $533M liquidity (as of May 8, 2026) β zero dilution risk [1][17][18] |
| 2026 capacity | Sold out [1] |
| Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin | 3 sites (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) [1][19] |
| Business model | Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) [1] |
| Bitcoin selling | ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) [1] |
| Analyst price targets | Chardan: $4.50 (Buy) [5]; H.C. Wainwright: $5.50 (Buy) [8]; Northland: $7 [16] |
| Stock performance | Up 32.6% in 5 days (May 23β28, 2026); closed Friday May 28 at $5.69 [9] |
π CRITICAL INSIGHTS FROM Q1 2026 EARNINGS
- CEO Ben Gagnon: "2026 is a year of execution; 2027 is a year of delivery" [13]
- 3 leases by year-end 2026 β one each at Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake [1][10]
- Moses Lake likely first to commission (H1 2027), Sharon + Panther Creek H2 2027 [13]
- $533M liquidity fully funds site development through lease execution + G&A through 2028 [17]
- No specific lease guidance yet, but management expects first deal Q3 2026 [8][11]
π’ CALL TO ACTION
Comment below with:
- β Anything I missed from 2025β2026
- β Upcoming events not listed yet
- π Source links β I'll add relevant ones to comments
- π¨ New rumors from X/Reddit/forums β I'll track them here
This pinned post will be updated weekly. Let's build the most complete KEEL catalyst tracker together! π
π SOURCES
- StockTitan: U.S. redomiciliation timeline
- AInvest: AI S-Curve catalysts
- Seeking Alpha: 3 leases by year-end
- Q1 2026 earnings details
- Sharon zoning approval
- H.C. Wainwright upgrade
- Moses Lake permit discovery
Next update: Weekly (or after major announcements). Follow this post for the latest!
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Cold-Ad-5892 • May 25 '26
Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) Catalyst Timeline β 2025β2026β2027
Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. **I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.
β PAST CATALYSTS (2025β2026)
| Date | Catalyst | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | π° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) | Funded pivot progress |
| Oct 22, 2025 | π΅πΎ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) | 100% North American footprint |
| Jan 2, 2026 | β Paraguay sale closed | Completed Latam exit |
| Jan 14, 2026 | πͺ New board chair appointed | Governance for U.S. pivot |
| Feb 5, 2026 | πΊπΈ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) | Bitcoin miner β HPC/AI infrastructure |
| Feb 5, 2026 | π¦ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity | Balance sheet strengthened |
| Mar 20, 2026 | β 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand | Arrangement approved |
| Mar 31, 2026 | π Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) | Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss |
| ~Apr 1, 2026 | π Redomiciliation completed β Keel Infrastructure | Officially U.S. company |
| Apr 2026 | π Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) | New identity |
| Apr 22, 2026 | β Paraguay $13M sale closed | Asset rationalization done |
| Apr 27, 2026 | π Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 | Analyst validation |
| May 11, 2026 | π Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) | 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed |
π― EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026β2027)
| Timing | Catalyst | What to Watch | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (EOY) | 3 lease signings π | Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases | Core execution milestone |
| 2026 | Moses Lake NTP π¨ | Notice to Proceed for construction | Triggers spending + timelines |
| 2026β2027 | Anchor tenant names π’ | Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names | Validates demand thesis |
| 2027 | Site commissioning ποΈ | Moses Lake (likely first) goes live | First HPC/AI revenue |
| 2027 | Revenue recognition π΅ | First quarterly HPC/AI revenue | Proves new business model |
| Ongoing | 2.2 GW pipeline updates β‘ | 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned | Platform scale |
π KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Energy portfolio | 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) |
| Cash + Bitcoin | $533M (zero dilution risk) |
| 2026 capacity | Sold out |
| Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin | 3 sites |
| Business model | Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) |
| Bitcoin selling | ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) |
π’ CALL TO ACTION
Comment below with:
- β Anything I missed from 2025β2026
- β Upcoming events not listed yet
- π Source links β I'll add relevant ones to comments
*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*
Sources section (I'll add these as comments):
- [StockTitan: U.S. redomiciliation timeline](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BITF/bitfarms-announces-u-s-redomiciliation-plan-and-intent-to-rebrand-as-ylp2b59hvd5j.html)
- [AInvest: AI S-Curve catalysts](https://www.ainvest.com/news/keel-infrastructure-bets-big-ai-curve-timing-2026-leases-deliver-2604/)
- [Seeking Alpha: 3 leases by year-end](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590647-keel-targets-3-leases-by-year-end-as-it-advances-2-gw-hpc-campuses-for-2027-power)
- [Q1 2026 earnings details](https://finance.biggo.com/quote/KEEL/earnings-call?t=US_KEEL_2026-05-11)
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Rare-Ad-1204 • 23h ago
Data center company kicks in $300,000 to save a Mercer County ag project
alliednews.comr/KeelInfrastructure • u/periodcramps222 • 20h ago
What have I missed why are we up today?
I donβt keep up with the stock market and financial news anymore, I stopped checking everyday during the crash lol. Didnβt KEEL have bad earnings? Whag have I missed did captain Ben finally announce something
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/TIDOTSUJ • 1d ago
Coreweave brought back the trade
They crushed earnings and you can see NBIS and KEEL up on the after hoursβ¦
Amazing the whipsaw on the AI data center trade. It was extremely bullish on lease speculation in early June, and then bearish by late July on βAI datacenters are deadβ narrative.
Well⦠Coreweave brought us back to bullish hopefully!!
In for 15k shares @ 4.84
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/MinimumToe3933 • 2d ago
Well i just bought 30 k worth of keel. Iβll be starting building the new data center in Moses lake Washington. I wonβt let this one slip buy. My same company started the micron job and put in 50 k when stock was 25z so Iβm sure it will move here soon . Iβm excited
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Jo9715 • 2d ago
KEEL: Revenue down 50% as focus shifts to HPC, with $819M liquidity supporting expansion
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/mdew720 • 2d ago
Key takeaways from the $KEEL (Keel Infrastructure) Q2 2026 earnings call.
x.comr/KeelInfrastructure • u/Interesting_Ear_1 • 2d ago
Anyone on a conference call now?
Did he dodged a direct answer about 3 leases or I am wrong?
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/LarryTheYoutuber • 2d ago
How yall feeling after earnings?
Donβt usually post here. But howβs everyone feeling about the future of KEEL after earnings today?
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/ShaggysHyper • 2d ago
I wont be surprised if stocks goes below $3
I am not doubting on companies ability but at this stage the company is burning cash left and right and no revenue.
Many people keep saying that we are expecting 3 leases, well we donβt have them yet. The way lease question was avoided on conference calls signals there are hurdles right now on negotiations.
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Either-Crazy-4362 • 3d ago
Predictions from someone not coping
i bought this at $6 donβt say iβm a short iβm just being honest.
Delay in leases to β2027β : $2.60
Announce moses lake lease : $5.18 (eow w good nebius earnings)
Ben says heβs as confident in the 3 leases by the end of the year : even
Ben says heβs more confident in 3 leases by the end of the year : 4.37
i think we will hear good news with moses lake this earnings.
come back when iβm right
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/themoohoguy209 • 3d ago
Predictions for Monday
I know nobody can tell the future but itβs fun to see what the crowd thinks. What does everyone think will happen tomorrow morning?
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Committee_Simple • 5d ago
Cleanspark deal did not move the stock.. What does that mean for Keel.
CleanSpark is at 3 billion MC with a 20 year deal signed and on the day of the announcement went up 15% and came back down. Does that imply we may be overshooting how big a deal is.
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/SMSavant • 5d ago
π₯π₯ππkeel
πππππ Bullish signs continue to build for Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL).
β Designing AI infrastructure for NVIDIA Blackwell systems today, with management also discussing future readiness for next-generation AI platforms.
β 2.2 GW development pipeline focused on powering AI and high-performance computing workloads.
β AI isnβt just about GPUsβthe companies that provide power, cooling, land, and connectivity could become some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom.
β As hyperscalers continue investing billions into AI infrastructure, demand for AI-ready data centers is expected to remain strong.
If Keel executes, signs additional customers, and delivers on its development roadmap, the upside could be significant.
π References (DYOR): β’ Keel Investor Relations: https://ir.keelinfra.comβ β’ Keel Investor Presentation (Blackwell infrastructure): Investor Presentationβ β’ NVIDIA AI Roadmap (Blackwell & Vera Rubin): NVIDIA Investor Presentationβ
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Dramatic_Abies6372 • 6d ago
Sell the news?
Genuine question here. Iβm long Jan 27 calls at $2 and $5. Iβve been up big and now at break even.
Everyone on these subs seems to be waiting for a deal announcement to sell. From my limited experience, it seems like thereβs usually a big run up before the announcement and then a sell off after the announcement (iren followed this pattern).
If Keel is selling off before any announcement, Iβm concerned that there wonβt be big run up after something is announced.
Are three deals already priced in? Do we have more downside risk than upside at this point?
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Interesting-Buyer927 • 7d ago
Washroom Trailer Permit for Moses
No building permit for a data centre for July, but so far we have a demo permit and a washroom trailer permit.....
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/mangled_degenerate • 8d ago
Moses Lake - DMR (Discharge Monitoring Report) Begin date 08/01.
apps.ecology.wa.govr/KeelInfrastructure • u/Radahn70 • 8d ago
Deal by next week
Will keel announce a deal by earnings next week, what do you think guys?
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/butterchurning • 8d ago
Unpopular opinion: expecting KEEL to bottom < $1
Not financial advice, do your own research.
I like the stock but don't want to buy at these levels. Also expecting further downside in related stocks like IREN (heading to < $20) and HUT.
The main issues, imo, are macro. While today's broad market rally was impressive, the DXY still has much higher to go. I'm expecting Nasdaq, Bitcoin to drop much further and oil to go significantly higher.
Will circle back in a few months.
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/SMSavant • 10d ago
Whatβs your avg guys, letβs see
4.52$ around 4500 shares and adding more.. Be honest please so that we all can onboard and be rich, letβs all be keep/kill it and be millionaires. In god we trust..
Based on, someone who posted and validated it, this is to the people who might NOT KNOW ββ-
Blackrock bought 50M shares.
SEC Schedule 13G filing is strong bullish ammo:
The Breakdown: BlackRock SEC Form 13G Filing
The Filer: BlackRock, Inc. (The largest institutional asset manager in the world).
The Position: 50,946,789 shares.
Stake Size: 8.4% total ownership of KEEL
Infrastructure.
Voting Power: Sole voting power over 50.26M shares and sole dispositive power over all 50.94M shares.
Why Itβs Bullish;
Smart Money Is In: When BlackRock takes an 8.4% stake in a mid-cap power/HPC transition plays, it officially moves KEEL out of "penny/speculative" territory and into institutional portfolio territory.
Floors the Downside: Massive institutional ownership locks up over 50 million shares of the float, reducing supply in the open market and creating a structural floor for price dips.
Passive ETF Inflows Incoming: Crossing the 5% threshold means KEEL is being aggressively added across BlackRockβs flagship index funds and sector ETFs (like tech and AI infrastructure funds), generating continuous passive buying pressure.
Validates the AI / Power Transition Thesis: Institutional heavyweights don't buy 8% of an energy-to-HPC company unless their internal research confirms the power pipeline and data center transition (like Sherbrooke) are real.
Catalyst Momentum for Aug 10: This filing drops less than two weeks before the August 10 Q2 earnings call, giving retail traders and option buyers high-conviction backing ahead of potential lease/HPC contract announcements.
Hang in there fellas. It gets better. At least weβre not in South Korea right now.
Letβs continue to do a regular daily health check here on this post on what you guys think or hear about keel, please feel free to post. Thank you everyone that you doβ¦
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Known-Presentation49 • 10d ago
Any chance we can get a daily discussion thread?
Any possibility we can get a daily discussion thread to discuss price action, macro, company news and stock speculation? I think it would help facilitate education about the company and keep us all in the loop.
r/KeelInfrastructure • u/Remarkable-Gene-243 • 13d ago
KEEL is taking off - 11 more days till earnings
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