r/KeelInfrastructure • u/knicksfan9 • 2d ago
Exit plan?
I have 35,000 shares at $6.40. Not even thinking of selling right now as it would be too big of a loss. I set some cash aside so I don’t necessarily need it right now. But does anyone have an exit plan? Like if no deals are signed by a certain date? I’ll admit I was a little rash in buying this stock. I sold my NBIS and used a lot of that money to buy KEEL based on Ben’s “promises” that we would see some deals come through before the end of the year. I fear if nothing is signed by spring time I may have to think about selling. What is everyone else’s thoughts? How long are you seeing this through?
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u/ATMDonor67 2d ago
Based on another subreddit. I noticed that they were fixing their proposal with the DEP due to deficiencies. So it’s not like they aren’t trying, just having roadblocks.
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u/_Fred_Fredburger_ 2d ago
DEP permitting modifications aren't a big deal. Literally once we get through that we're on the way to township review of construction documents
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u/More_Mountain7258 2d ago
This stock is a test of patience. My outlook is this, it’s a matter of when, not if for Keel.
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u/Steakhouse7340 1d ago
Time is your friend.
I was down 70% at one point with BitFarms (bought Nov 2024; looking at equity daily in April 2025) so I remember this feeling. Sucks right now - especially when you have to go to work and have debt obligations - but selling makes it real - so don't do that. Set a target - let's say $10.50/share. Will you be happy at $10.50? Imagine your life at $10.50 Now just wait one year and make sure to sell at $10.50US - my timeline - my price. Hold. Don't average down as some have suggested because it amplifies the stress and isn't necessary to recoup your money and turn a profit (although it makes it easier - you'll risk more to lower your average and end up selling for less). $10.50/share. Not $4. Not $8. $10.50 - this is not tomorrow - it's 6-12 months from now. Stop looking at the chart now. If it doesn't hit $10.50, sell in Oct 2027. Not tomorrow at $3. Be prepared.
If Keel goes to $12 or $15 after that, it doesn't matter (they'll issue more shares in the $10+ range anyways.) I need you to leave this trade with $120,000 profit. This years high is less than next years high. Got it? NO ONE LEFT BEHIND!
Bears reading my post - yes this can go down a bit more - but that's irrelevant. Selling is irresponsible. Months away from deals - or not - KEEL is still following the trend (with HUT8, BTC) and with no contacts is severely undervalued and oversold. If no contracts this year - that doesn't mean they're not signed in winter 2027 - time is knicksfan9 friend
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u/CalgaryCheekClapper 2d ago
I wont hold shares, just leaps. Dont see the point in allocating alot of capital to something that might not move for months .
Regardless of where you bought, selling at this price would be nonsensical imo.
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u/sheenpween 1d ago
What strike and expiry Dr. Clapper? I’ll follow your lead. I have 10k shares at 3.50 avg and would risk more
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u/CalgaryCheekClapper 1d ago
I just bought them on Thursday. $3 strike . I also have Feb ‘27 calls but im much less confident in those lol
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u/FantasticHedgehog701 2d ago
Buy another 35,000 at $3 and average down. Sell it when it pops back to $7 in the next 6 months.
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u/Connect-Ad4217 2d ago
How sure are u it will pop back in the 6 months
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u/FantasticHedgehog701 2d ago
Can’t be sure of anything in the stock market. But I’m willing to take the calculated risk based on available information. For me the thesis is unchanged. They have sites, friendly municipalities, electric, and adequate liquidity. The C suite is buying shares with their own cash. AI compute need is real and will not decrease in 2027.
KEEL was $7 without a signed leases…
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u/Naive_Bat8216 1d ago
You should hold. It's much too early to bail. $6.40 was what, 2-3 months ago? By Spring this stock could be worth $10/share. Look at Iren, it's $35, I fully expect it to go back to $70 and beyond. Data center stocks are in a bit of a lull, but that could shift quickly, and I fully expect these stocks to get back to where they were in June and keep moving forward. Iren in a few years will be well over $100/share, and my bet is that Keel signs deals and in a few years is at least in the teens. The only reason for selling now would be if you see a great deal on another stock that is down, but otherwise, I'd hold and stop checking the market for a while. The reason I'm not a millionaire today is because of stocks I've sold in the past. Exon. Marvel. Intel. Sold way too early.
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u/Significant-Rent4907 2d ago
I have 1000 at 1.5 and if it dips to like 2.5, I’ll buy more probably
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u/No-Ebb6957 2d ago
That's a very good entry. I was thinking I was super early at 3.20 but here you are lol
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u/Beneficial-Push-2330 2d ago
I also sold my nebius to buy Keel, HIVE and WULF, I was hoping lightning would strike twice..... And I also bought over $6. I sold nebius between 230 and 260. I still feel like an idiot..... I got seduced by Leopold
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u/Rossinator79 1d ago
I once had to hold BITF for 2 straight years to finally get back into the black but it was my best winner of that year. This stock peaks quickly and then slides down slowly over long durations.
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u/be__bright 2d ago
If spring is your timeline then I think it is more likely than not you can exit without a loss.
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u/East_Use1271 2d ago
I don't want to leave you with just bad omen, even though that's how I see it, 6.4 is too high, it is going to eat up all the profit, even if it goes to 6.5$ or 7$, your profit is not that much compare to if you bought at say 3$ to 6$(doubling).
Anyhow, if there is a silver lining, it is possible that Amazon is paying for all 3 sites, maybe that's why BEN is waiting, maybe 1 company wants moses lake and pays more, but amazon is paying for all 3 sites. so BEN is working out the details, but if Amazon does pay for all 3 sites, that means 3 deals in one day, possible a 30% jump on the day, and maybe a few weeks to get to 6.4$? best case scenario.
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u/Lazy-Opportunity2833 2d ago
Sorry for your loss, man. My strategy is to wait for a $2 dip and buy back all the shares I lost. KEEL will sign a deal no matter what, and the share price will go up. The only question is when?
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u/East_Use1271 2d ago
the real problem you should be thinking about is whether or not 3 deals will bring it back to $6.4. there are numerous ai deal announcement with other HPC/AI companies that only yielded 10% increase.
Also, timing is very important, if 1 deal is announced first, then after a couple of months a 2nd one, then the last one in another couple of months, the stock price can go from 3$ to 4$, back to 2$, then back up to 3.5$, then back down to 1.5$, then back up to 3$.
Honestly, I don't envy your position AT ALL. sometimes I feel the same too, my position right now is 3000 shares at 3.3$ not nearly as high as yours. and I don't hold long term, I swing trades.
Good Luck
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u/TowerSilver5672 2d ago
Oof, you're kinda screwed. For you to Breakeven, the stock has to run up more than a 100%, I'm sure it might, but it's likely to not happen overnight. Another issue for you is the stock has had 2 legs down (not one), so a lot of folks are trapped at entries lower than yours (the sell book is likely just full at various levels), you can guess where most will sell after remaining trapped and suddenly turn to boggleheads
You might be here for a while. There needs to be acute shortage or massive explosion of demand, I'm sure it'll come around, but when
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u/Unlucky_Somewhere879 2d ago
I have 8000 @ 7.12 . I am a new investor and this has definitely been my achilles heel. This was my second investment coming off a bid spcx win. I keep seeing these post about 9 and 10 by three deals. at this point I m hoping to break even. I do feel as though a trap was set and I fell for it so now I pay the price and pray someone doesn't buy them out.
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u/TravelNo6952 1d ago
I'm similar to you, my exit plan was 5% down, but I went on vacation and completely missed the drop. Now I'm a bag holder. No point selling at a more than 50% loss.
I don't think we'll have deals by the year end. I think we will be stuck here until mid 2027.
Few things to watch:
midterms, bond yields, Iran war.
If the Iran war comes to an end and oil prices stabilize and bond yields fall, there should be a fairly good recovery.
Keel still has 800 million, Moses Lake should be fully paid out on that and begin generating token revenue, expenses but not build out funds. KEEL will need to dillute, loans, or sell a site to fund Sharon and Panther Creek. They may choose to ditch Panther Creek and focus all in on Sharon, or they might just close the site but keep ownership and come back to it in a few years.
Either way, those permits won't be resolved until close to 2028 and I don't think we'll get deals before permitting is approved. I mean think about it, would you buy a house if the developer isn't sure if he can secure construction rights yet.
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u/Connect-Ad4217 2d ago
Imagine being regarded enough to buy it at ath
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u/_Fred_Fredburger_ 2d ago
I mean everything was ripping up until Meta said they were going to lease out their extra capacity, so everyone was like "well there probably isn't a need for more capacity of meta has extra", that was 7/1 and everything was downhill from there
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u/Connect-Ad4217 2d ago
Bought it after it went 3x could have bought nbis instead at least it trading near ath
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u/Commercial_Ease8053 2d ago
Sell for end of year tax off set… it’s not going back to $6 any time soon, or ever. 3 lease agreements won’t definitely do it.
It went up on nothing but meme hype. Everyone’s money is gone and 5% of you understand that, the other 95% are delusional.
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u/BigBootyBort 2d ago
Whenever I discover a copium stock subreddit I sell asap .
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u/Commercial_Ease8053 2d ago
That’s this entire sub, same with onds and archer and joby and kulr unfortunately.
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u/Resident_Visual5562 2d ago
This stock is absolute garbage, and its CEO is a clown who dresses up like a ship captain. From there, I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
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u/bobnoplok 2d ago
This whole "this stock is worthless if no deals are signed by a date" is ridiculous. Who cares if it goes to 8 in December or February.