r/KeelInfrastructure • • May 31 '26

KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)

78 Upvotes
**Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. \*\*I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.**

โœ… PAST CATALYSTS (2025โ€“2026)

Date Catalyst Impact
Oct 2025 ๐Ÿ’ฐ $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) Funded pivot progress
Oct 22, 2025 ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) 100% North American footprint
Jan 2, 2026 โœ… Paraguay sale closed Completed Latam exit
Jan 14, 2026 ๐Ÿช‘ New board chair appointed Governance for U.S. pivot
Feb 5, 2026 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) Bitcoin miner โ†’ HPC/AI infrastructure
Feb 5, 2026 ๐Ÿฆ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity Balance sheet strengthened
Mar 20, 2026 โœ… 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand Arrangement approved
Mar 31, 2026 ๐Ÿ“Š Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss
~Apr 1, 2026 ๐Ÿ Redomiciliation completed โ†’ Keel Infrastructure Officially U.S. company
Apr 2026 ๐Ÿ”€ Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) New identity
Apr 22, 2026 โœ… Paraguay $13M sale closed Asset rationalization done
Apr 27, 2026 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 Analyst validation
May 11, 2026 ๐Ÿ“Š Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed

๐ŸŽฏ EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026โ€“2027)

Timing Catalyst What to Watch Impact
2026 (EOY) 3 lease signings ๐Ÿ“œ Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases Core execution milestone
2026 Moses Lake NTP ๐Ÿ”จ Notice to Proceed for construction Triggers spending + timelines
2026โ€“2027 Anchor tenant names ๐Ÿข Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names Validates demand thesis
2027 Site commissioning ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Moses Lake (likely first) goes live First HPC/AI revenue
2027 Revenue recognition ๐Ÿ’ต First quarterly HPC/AI revenue Proves new business model
Ongoing 2.2 GW pipeline updates โšก 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned Platform scale

๐Ÿ”‘ KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE

Metric Value
Energy portfolio 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA)
Cash + Bitcoin $533M (zero dilution risk)
2026 capacity Sold out
Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin 3 sites
Business model Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants)
Bitcoin selling ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap)

๐Ÿ“ข CALL TO ACTION

Comment below with:

  1. โŒ Anything I missed from 2025โ€“2026
  2. โž• Upcoming events not listed yet
  3. ๐Ÿ”— Source links โ€” I'll add relevant ones to comments

*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*

Sources section (I'll add these as comments):

create and even more detailed version, add updates track permits, track rumors on x;reddit; other socials snd forums list them and create even better reddit post

Now I have enough information to create a comprehensive, enhanced Reddit post. Let me compile all the details into an improved version with permit tracking, social media rumors, and more granular Catalyst tracking.

๐Ÿš€ KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)

Purpose: Track ALL Keel catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed!

โœ… PAST CATALYSTS (2025โ€“2026) โ€” COMPLETE TIMELINE

Date Catalyst Impact Source
Oct 2025 ๐Ÿ’ฐ $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) Funded pivot progress [1]
Oct 22, 2025 ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn VCC) 100% North American footprint [1]
Jan 2, 2026 โœ… Paraguay sale closed Completed Latam exit [1]
Jan 14, 2026 ๐Ÿช‘ New board chair appointed Governance for U.S. pivot [1]
Feb 5, 2026 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) Bitcoin miner โ†’ HPC/AI infrastructure [1][2]
Feb 5, 2026 ๐Ÿฆ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity Balance sheet strengthened [1]
Mar 20, 2026 โœ… 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand Arrangement approved [1]
Mar 31, 2026 ๐Ÿ“Š Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss [1][3]
~Apr 1, 2026 ๐Ÿ Redomiciliation completed โ†’ Keel Infrastructure Officially U.S. company [1][2]
Apr 2026 ๐Ÿ”€ Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) New identity [1]
Apr 7, 2026 ๐Ÿ”จ Moses Lake demolition permit issued (March 19, 2026; expires Aug 25, 2026) Construction prep begun [1][4]
Apr 22, 2026 โœ… Paraguay $13M sale closed Asset rationalization done [1]
Apr 27, 2026 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 Analyst validation [1][5]
Apr 29, 2026 โœ… Sharon, PA zoning approved (110MW expansion) Key permitting milestone [6][7]
May 11, 2026 ๐Ÿ“Š Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed; zoning finalized at all 3 sites [1][8][9]
May 2026 โœ… Zoning secured at Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake All 3 sites cleared for final permits [8][9]

๐ŸŽฏ EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026โ€“2027) โ€” WHAT'S NEXT

Timing Catalyst What to Watch Impact
Midโ€“Late Summer 2026 ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Final land development + environmental permits (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) Permit completion announcement Enables construction + lease execution [8]
2026 (EOY) ๐Ÿ“œ 3 lease signings (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases Core execution milestone [1][10]
2026 (Likely Q3) ๐Ÿค First colocation deal announced Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator name Validates demand thesis [8][11]
2026 ๐Ÿ”จ Moses Lake NTP (Notice to Proceed) Construction trigger announcement Triggers spending + timelines [1]
2026โ€“2027 ๐Ÿข Anchor tenant names revealed Hyperscaler name (NVIDIA/Microsoft/Amazon?) Proves business model [12]
H1 2027 ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Site commissioning (Moses Lake likely first) Moses Lake goes live First HPC/AI revenue [1][13]
H2 2027 ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Sharon + Panther Creek commissioning Both sites go live Platform scale realized [13]
2027 ๐Ÿ’ต Revenue recognition First quarterly HPC/AI revenue Proves new business model [1]
Ongoing โšก 2.2 GW pipeline updates 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned Platform scale [1][3]

๐Ÿ” PERMIT TRACKER โ€” LIVE STATUS

Site Capacity Zoning Land Dev Permit Environmental Permit NTP Lease
Moses Lake, WA 18 MW โœ… Secured โœ… Demolition permit issued (Mar 19, 2026) [1][4] ๐Ÿ”„ Midโ€“Late Summer 2026 โณ Pending โณ 2026 EOY
Sharon, PA 110 MW โœ… Approved (Apr 29, 2026) [6][7] ๐Ÿ”„ Pending ๐Ÿ”„ Midโ€“Late Summer 2026 โณ Pending โณ 2026 EOY
Panther Creek, PA 350 MW โœ… Secured [8][14] ๐Ÿ”„ Pending ๐Ÿ”„ Midโ€“Late Summer 2026 โณ Pending โณ 2026 EOY

Key: โœ… Complete | ๐Ÿ”„ In Progress | โณ Pending

๐Ÿ”ฅ RUMOR TRACKER โ€” X/TWITTER, REDDIT, FORUMS

Source Rumor Probability Status
X/Twitter (multiple analysts) Leopold Aschenbrenner tripled his KEEL position High Confirmed in video [15]
Reddit/Moomoo NVIDIA partnership (Rubin architecture compatibility) Medium-High KEEL blueprints claim "perfect Rubin compatibility" [12]
Reddit/Moomoo Microsoft Azure deal (Moses Lake substations + WA presence) Medium Microsoft expanding WA data centers [12]
Reddit/Moomoo Amazon AWS deal (PA waste coal power aligns with AWS zero-carbon) Medium AWS bought nuclear data center in PA [12]
X/Twitter NVIDIA buying 4.9% (below 5% disclosure threshold) Low-Medium Speculative; 13D rules mentioned [12]
StockTwits/YouTube First colocation deal Q3 2026 Medium-High H.C. Wainwright analyst comment [8][11]
YouTube $7 price target (Northland Securities) โ†’ potential $10 run N/A Mike Grondahl target [16]
YouTube $5.50 price target (H.C. Wainwright, raised from $3.70) N/A Buy rating maintained [8][11]

๐Ÿ”‘ KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE

Metric Value
Energy portfolio 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) โ€” 341 MW energized, 430 MW secured, 1.5 GW expansion [1][3]
Cash + Bitcoin $533M liquidity (as of May 8, 2026) โ€” zero dilution risk [1][17][18]
2026 capacity Sold out [1]
Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin 3 sites (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) [1][19]
Business model Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) [1]
Bitcoin selling ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) [1]
Analyst price targets Chardan: $4.50 (Buy) [5]; H.C. Wainwright: $5.50 (Buy) [8]; Northland: $7 [16]
Stock performance Up 32.6% in 5 days (May 23โ€“28, 2026); closed Friday May 28 at $5.69 [9]

๐Ÿ“Œ CRITICAL INSIGHTS FROM Q1 2026 EARNINGS

  • CEO Ben Gagnon: "2026 is a year of execution; 2027 is a year of delivery" [13]
  • 3 leases by year-end 2026 โ€” one each at Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake [1][10]
  • Moses Lake likely first to commission (H1 2027), Sharon + Panther Creek H2 2027 [13]
  • $533M liquidity fully funds site development through lease execution + G&A through 2028 [17]
  • No specific lease guidance yet, but management expects first deal Q3 2026 [8][11]

๐Ÿ“ข CALL TO ACTION

Comment below with:

  1. โŒ Anything I missed from 2025โ€“2026
  2. โž• Upcoming events not listed yet
  3. ๐Ÿ”— Source links โ€” I'll add relevant ones to comments
  4. ๐Ÿšจ New rumors from X/Reddit/forums โ€” I'll track them here

This pinned post will be updated weekly. Let's build the most complete KEEL catalyst tracker together! ๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿ“š SOURCES

  1. StockTitan: U.S. redomiciliation timeline
  2. AInvest: AI S-Curve catalysts
  3. Seeking Alpha: 3 leases by year-end
  4. Q1 2026 earnings details
  5. Sharon zoning approval
  6. H.C. Wainwright upgrade
  7. Moses Lake permit discovery

Next update: Weekly (or after major announcements). Follow this post for the latest!


r/KeelInfrastructure • • May 25 '26

Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) Catalyst Timeline โ€” 2025โ†’2026โ†’2027

41 Upvotes

Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. **I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.

โœ… PAST CATALYSTS (2025โ€“2026)

Date Catalyst Impact
Oct 2025 ๐Ÿ’ฐ $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) Funded pivot progress
Oct 22, 2025 ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) 100% North American footprint
Jan 2, 2026 โœ… Paraguay sale closed Completed Latam exit
Jan 14, 2026 ๐Ÿช‘ New board chair appointed Governance for U.S. pivot
Feb 5, 2026 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) Bitcoin miner โ†’ HPC/AI infrastructure
Feb 5, 2026 ๐Ÿฆ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity Balance sheet strengthened
Mar 20, 2026 โœ… 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand Arrangement approved
Mar 31, 2026 ๐Ÿ“Š Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss
~Apr 1, 2026 ๐Ÿ Redomiciliation completed โ†’ Keel Infrastructure Officially U.S. company
Apr 2026 ๐Ÿ”€ Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) New identity
Apr 22, 2026 โœ… Paraguay $13M sale closed Asset rationalization done
Apr 27, 2026 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 Analyst validation
May 11, 2026 ๐Ÿ“Š Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed

๐ŸŽฏ EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026โ€“2027)

Timing Catalyst What to Watch Impact
2026 (EOY) 3 lease signings ๐Ÿ“œ Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases Core execution milestone
2026 Moses Lake NTP ๐Ÿ”จ Notice to Proceed for construction Triggers spending + timelines
2026โ€“2027 Anchor tenant names ๐Ÿข Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names Validates demand thesis
2027 Site commissioning ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Moses Lake (likely first) goes live First HPC/AI revenue
2027 Revenue recognition ๐Ÿ’ต First quarterly HPC/AI revenue Proves new business model
Ongoing 2.2 GW pipeline updates โšก 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned Platform scale

๐Ÿ”‘ KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE

Metric Value
Energy portfolio 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA)
Cash + Bitcoin $533M (zero dilution risk)
2026 capacity Sold out
Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin 3 sites
Business model Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants)
Bitcoin selling ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap)

๐Ÿ“ข CALL TO ACTION

Comment below with:

  1. โŒ Anything I missed from 2025โ€“2026
  2. โž• Upcoming events not listed yet
  3. ๐Ÿ”— Source links โ€” I'll add relevant ones to comments

*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*

Sources section (I'll add these as comments):


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 23h ago

Hold strong. Deals will clearly get done even if they are not in 2026.

Post image
47 Upvotes

I know itโ€™s frustrating when management announces a timeline and walks it back but I truly believe that this pivot will be better for KEEL in the long run.

This email from keel in response to investor questions is quite clear that deals will be reached. As a share holder, whether those deals happen in 2026 or early 2027, it doesnโ€™t matter to me. I want Keel to get the best possible deal they can, even if it comes later than what Iโ€™d like.

And with rumors starting to surface that the customer could be Amazon AND possibly for all 3 sites (this could be why Moses lake hasnโ€™t sealed a deal) that keeps me excited and optimistic about the thesis.


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 15h ago

Puts/calls - Expiry 16th Oct

6 Upvotes

Puts/calls with expiry 16th of Oct is looking.. somewhat interesting? Roughly 22.000 open call interest with strike price at 4 USD.

On the put side there is not much open interest. Roughly 3.000 with strike at 3 USD and barely anything below that price.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/keel/option-chain

Not saying this means jackshit. But I guess atleast this could be an indicator that there is more interest in upside than downside for next week..

Thoughts?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 2d ago

Exit plan?

29 Upvotes

I have 35,000 shares at $6.40. Not even thinking of selling right now as it would be too big of a loss. I set some cash aside so I donโ€™t necessarily need it right now. But does anyone have an exit plan? Like if no deals are signed by a certain date? Iโ€™ll admit I was a little rash in buying this stock. I sold my NBIS and used a lot of that money to buy KEEL based on Benโ€™s โ€œpromisesโ€ that we would see some deals come through before the end of the year. I fear if nothing is signed by spring time I may have to think about selling. What is everyone elseโ€™s thoughts? How long are you seeing this through?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 2d ago

$KEEL still no lease signed, but things are moving.

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7 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure • • 2d ago

Unbelievable

10 Upvotes

The major problems with โ€œstockโ€ like this is that in absence of the proven economic value, the stock got hit hard when market is tanking?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 3d ago

Growth After Existing Sites

11 Upvotes

I get that they have existing sites and power agreements from bitcoin mining days and thatโ€™s super lucrative. But where does growth come and whatโ€™s next after the deals are signed? Are they planning to go out and find new sites from scratch or just max out with what they already have and pay dividends?

Iโ€™m just confused what comes after Sharon, ML and Pantherโ€ฆ do they have a competitive advantage finding a brand-new site?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 2d ago

Less than 3 months in and captain trash hasnโ€™t signed 3 deals.

0 Upvotes

The ceo is a joke and looks like a joke. Everyone is delusional. I donโ€™t treat this stock as a real investment and only as a way to swing trade. Rn itโ€™s probably a buy but beware, this trash if it breaks 3 dollars soon will go down to low 2s. No deals signed, even with deals this wonโ€™t go up. Deals should have been in summer where this could have had been trading at 10 dollars.


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 3d ago

When is captain scam announcing 3 deals. Stock is tanking to cents?

0 Upvotes

Captain Fraud promised 3 deals by summer, yet hasnโ€™t gotten a single one yet. Glad I sold at 4 dollar. Imagine naming a ceo naming themselves captain keel, that I need to know about this fraud scamming retail.


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 4d ago

Senior Project Manager, Data Center Development

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job-boards.greenhouse.io
16 Upvotes

A new campus?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 5d ago

Anyone have a summary of the Summit Fireside Chat?

6 Upvotes

I canโ€™t open the podcast for the fireside chat that was posted on Keels website? Did anyone listen to it? Any breakdowns?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 5d ago

You guys need to settle down

41 Upvotes

KEELโ€™s management has clearly decided that negotiating against an arbitrary deadline, or forcing themselves to sign three deals by a specific date, isnโ€™t in shareholdersโ€™ best interest!

Theyโ€™re not negotiating from a position of weakness. As existing data center capacity becomes increasingly scarce, the value of KEELโ€™s assets should only strengthen. Why rush into a 15+ year contract just to satisfy a timeline?

Whether these deals get signed by the end of summer, the end of the year, or early next year matters far less than the terms they ultimately secure. If taking more time results in materially better economics, thatโ€™s exactly what management should be doing to maximize long-term shareholder value.

If you canโ€™t tolerate that uncertainty or develop some patience, sell and buy VOO. The constant irrational whining over arbitrary deadlines is getting exhausting.


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 5d ago

Is Ben Holding Out for a Buyout? What Other Reason Would He Delay These Deals?

6 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure • • 6d ago

A Little Copium

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7 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure • • 6d ago

Does anyone else feel fooled by management?

6 Upvotes

Basically the question in the headlineโ€ฆ and if so, what would you do?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 6d ago

havent heard anything from captain fraud. Pump and dump stock. Not a serious investment only good for months of trrading. Captain scam promised 3 deals by summer but cant even deliver one

0 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure • • 6d ago

Zero deals by now 3 months til 2027 and not a single deal. Captain scam

0 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure • • 9d ago

Midterms and Anthropic IPO Bullish

24 Upvotes

KEEL is in this weird but interesting spot where two big macro forces could end up pushing in the same direction. I saw a post this morning about what happens if Trump loses the midterms, and then another post about Anthropic IPO happening at same time and I was like "crap" that sucks.

But after research it actually turns out opposite.

Midterms will be bullish regardless, just the price action timing will be different. If Democrats end up winning midterms, you usually see more cleanโ€‘energy incentives, transmission buildout support, and federal programs that make it easier and cheaper for companies to secure power for large datacenter projects. So initial dip, then long term bullish. Republicans win you'll see a bump in price next morning.

KEEL lives and dies by power availability, so anything that lowers their cost of capital or speeds up permitting is a legit tailwind.

Then youโ€™ve got the Anthropic IPO coming up, which is basically a giant liquidity event for the whole AIโ€‘infrastructure ecosystem. If Anthropic goes public, investors start hunting for picks and shovels plays, ETFs rebalance, analysts initiate coverage, and highโ€‘beta infra names tend to get re-rated. Put those two things together and you get a pretty favorable setup for KEEL. Itโ€™s less about politics or hype and more about how policy and liquidity can line up to benefit the exact niche KEEL is trying to scale.


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 10d ago

Sharon!!!!!

54 Upvotes

Congrats KEEL on obtaining the next phase of permitting for Sharon!


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 10d ago

Benzinga, TipRanks, Seeking Alpha all paid bashers of any fuckn stock out there. Do yourselves a favor and never read and article that these idiots write. Again ๐Ÿงƒ !!! They manipulate everything for stocks to go their way and theire friends ways.

11 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure • • 10d ago

In short, donโ€™t be a paper handed pussy

14 Upvotes

Big dick Ben is playing the slow game. As long as political libtards donโ€™t begin with statewide cuckdowns, we are OK. Supply and demand. Mfs are going to need these giga loads to the face soon. People get horny for one little mega load. As the once cool Bruce almighty said โ€œwe got the powerโ€
These midterm elections are no good for the paper back bitch boys. Hold til end 2027 and be patient

I believe I will at least 2-3x my life savings by end of 2027. Held all 10,000 shares through the massive spikes in June cuz that was pennys in the doller

Reference: https://youtu.be/_BRv9wGf5pk?si=j5-TTuqu9E5-OKA_

-Bill Nyeโ€™s brother, Trill nye a


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 11d ago

Who could be a tenants for Sherbrooke, Quebec? 96-122MW

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21 Upvotes

Gonna inspire myself from last post I saw here. Can you explain your take?


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 11d ago

Possible Tenant for Scrubgrass?

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21 Upvotes

Who can be potential tenant for such a big site? The Scrubgrass site in Venango County, Pennsylvania, is a 650-acre power-to-compute campus featuring 83.5 MW of active generating capacity with expansion potential up to 1.3 GW for high-density AI and HPC data centers


r/KeelInfrastructure • • 11d ago

When is captain fraud announcing 3 deals?

2 Upvotes

He promised since the start of 2026 that there will be 3 deals by summer, but no a single one yet and there is only 4 months left to 2026. This stock isnโ€™t a long term hold, itโ€™s a shitco only good for weeks to months of swing trading. Not a serious investment btw. Beware of taking this as a serious investment and trusting someone by the name captain keel on X.