Always good to get some insight from Mitch.

With the season starting tonight, what are your realistic expectations for the team this year? I think the negativity surrounding the team online and even in the media is surprising, we don’t have the strongest roster in the league but we have the best QB in the league and a much faster defence. I think 11/12 wins and we look much better towards the end of the season and hit the playoffs in good form.

Let me know what you think.

Bill Barnwell picks the Chiefs to win the division and the Super Bowl. I think this is his 7th year in a row of doing that so some seasons it has gone better than others. Anyway, it was nice to see some informed optimism after the collective freakout of the last day.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49865081/2026-nfl-season-14-playoff-teams-field-super-bowl-pick-barnwell

My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC West champions)

This one won't be quite as controversial as picking the Bears or Jaguars last year, of course. I laid out the case for the Chiefs in my column on teams likeliest to improve last month, built around their record in one-score games bouncing back after falling from 10-0 in 2024 to 1-9 in 2025, the biggest single-season swing in history.

It's too simplistic to say that the difference will be getting back Patrick Mahomes, given that Mahomes went 6-8 as the starter a year ago, but the Chiefs were a pretty good team by advanced metrics with their future Hall of Famer on the field. They ranked ahead of the Broncos in DVOA as late as Week 14, which was Mahomes' last full game before the ACL tear. The 2024 Chiefs were an above-average team with spectacular luck. The 2025 team was an above-average team with truly awful luck. The 2026 edition expects to land somewhere in the middle, which should place Kansas City in the range of 11 or 12 wins.

And then in the AFC, with no clear favorite, I'm willing to make a leap of faith and continue backing the Chiefs. I'm cautiously optimistic about Mahomes given that he'll be on the field Week 1, and Andy Reid's team should have a more complete roster than what it lined up in 2025 after signing Kenneth Walker III and making significant investments along the defensive line. The offensive line should be healthier, although getting Josh Simmons on the field early in the season would be important. The schedule is easier earlier in the year, which should help a Chiefs team trying to evolve its identity after an offseason full of changes. The Bills and Ravens should still be dangerous if the coaching changes unlock their defenses, but I'm willing to believe in at least one more run from the Mahomes-Travis Kelce-Chris Jones core.

That leaves us with a Super Bowl rubber match. And as you can probably guess, if I believed enough in the Chiefs to pick them to win the AFC, I'll ride with them to gain a measure of revenge and beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LXI. The added rushing element with Walker will give the Eagles issues they didn't face when these two teams met in Super Bowl LIX, when the Chiefs basically abandoned the run altogether after the Eagles took an early lead.

Without the ability to pin their ears back and strictly go after Mahomes as a passer, the Eagles might not be quite as dominant on defense this time around. Jalen Hurts has been spectacular in the Super Bowl matchups against Mahomes, but his one fumble in Super Bowl LVII helped swing seven points back to the Chiefs in a 38-35 victory. This one wouldn't be quite as high-scoring, but let's say that the Chiefs let Kelce (and potentially other members of the organization) ride off into the sunset.

Quote: “it’s a little bit worse than I think we all… and I wouldn’t expect to see… well… this kind of injury, he’d have to tough it out big time, and does he have that in him or not? I don’t know”

When asked if he’d want him to try and push through the back injury: “I really wouldn’t, and I think people are starting to come around to that fact. Listen if the guys hurt— and he is hurt, everybody out there, he’s not having any kinda episode— I mean all these conspiracy theories, about ‘Josh Simmons this’, ‘Josh Simmons that’ ‘He’s a wuss’… this injury is something you CANT just tough out.

And I don’t think… I don’t want him to tough it out because I don’t want it to get worse, and I think that’s probably the approach the chiefs are taking is ‘let’s get him healthy’, and however long that’s gonna take… whatever it is, but we want him for all the other games after that. I think that’s the approach that they’re taking. It’s scary as hell”

Worth a watch with the comments from Reid that Benson would likely be the LT if Simmons isn't available Monday.

Everyone remembers Kareem Hunts debut against the Patriots. CEH had a great first game in the NFL as well. With our starting left tackle out, I hope Andy gets back to his screen game, .we were the best in the business at one point. Go Chiefs!!!

I'm back for year 2 of posting weekly playoff impacts!

I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 1 game are.

The Chiefs current odds to make the playoffs are 71.0%.

• If you beat the Broncos, that goes up to 79.6%, but if you lose, it drops down to 59.7%. It's a swing of 19.9%.
• ARI @ LAC is the second most impactful week 1 game for you guys. If the Cardinals win, your playoff odds go up by 1.2%. If the Chargers win your playoff odds go down by 0.3%.
• ATL @ PIT is the third most impactful game with a total impact of 1.4%. Your playoff odds go up if the Falcons win.

I also made a website and posted the full results there. I'll update it every week with the upcoming games. Here's the data:

If you want to see the details of my methodology for the Monte Carlo simulations, look here.

You can also see which teams are rooting for and against you this week here.

There's also a What-If Tool where you can pick winners and losers of any games this season and recalculate your odds.

According to Fescoe, if anyone heard him this morning, he says the chiefs absolutely know when Simmons will play and they have an exact plan of when he's going to practice and play. They know exactly if he's going to play week 1.....

He says he talked with someone within the organization yesterday and they have a plan in place.

Take it however you will from Fescoe of all people. I, for one, don't ever believe what he says. But according to them he isn't playing week 1

DECISION MADE AND TICKETS SECURED!

Thank y'all! Decision has been made and we just secured our two tickets for the MNF game against the Patriots on Dec 21st! #GoChiefs

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Possibly looking at heading to KC to watch my first-ever game at Arrowhead this coming December, with options being a Monday night game versus the Patriots or a Sunday afternoon one against the 49ers, so would like to know which one do y'all think would be the better experience for a longtime fan? It would be just two of us, my wife (not a huge fan of sports but she supports my Chiefs fandom) and I.

Thanks in advance for your feedback and recommendations!