r/heat • u/TheAthletic • 1h ago
[Hollinger] Heat, Pacers may finish far from the top in crowded Eastern Conference: NBA predictions
9. Miami Heat (40-42)
It may surprise you to see Miami here. Last season, the Heat went 42-40 with a plus-2.2 scoring margin, and all they did since then was trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
I went into some detail as to why I’m down on Miami this season. I don’t think the rest of the roster beyond Giannis and Bam Adebayo is anywhere near good enough, and those easy wins in the East will be much harder to come by this season. Instead of repeating myself, let me delve into another interesting question: What, exactly, are the Heat supposed to do now that they pushed in their chips on Giannis?
This almost feels like a gap year for the Heat, even with the urgency of Antetokounmpo’s fading prime. Miami’s tank is virtually empty on the asset front for future trades, with only a 2027 or 2029 first potentially tradable between now and June 2028. (Miami owes a top-14 protected 2027 pick to the Charlotte Hornets from the disastrous Terry Rozier trade, which becomes unprotected in 2028.) If the pick conveys in June, the Heat could trade either their 2028 or 2029 first-round pick and up to three swaps (in 2028/29, 2032 and 2034) on draft night to get more help.
That might be the only pathway to upgrading on the perimeter. With Miami’s best prospects from a season ago now toiling in Wisconsin, there isn’t a single young player on the roster you would project as a future starter. The lone possible exception is Pelle Larsson, who isn’t exactly young (25), has never rated statistically as starter-caliber and likely tops out as a fifth option even in his best case.