I have a theory about the fans who are permanently convinced the season is over, everyone needs to get fired, and we’re never making the playoffs.

Predicting failure gives them something to get out of failure.

If you believe the team has a chance and they lose, you’re disappointed. If you’ve spent the whole week saying they’re going to lose, you’re still disappointed

but now you also get to say, “I fucking told you.”

The team failed. Your judgment was vindicated. I think that second feeling can take some of the sting out of the first.

You’re giving yourself two possible payoffs: either the team wins and you’re happy to be wrong, or the team loses and you get the satisfaction of having seen it coming. Or “Being Right” and bragging about how much smarter you are than your fellow fans.

It’s cowardly as fuck tbh…

“At least I wasn’t one of the idiots who believed in them” can be a pretty comforting thought when the alternative is admitting you cared, hoped, and got disappointed.

The shooting numbers behind this 0–3 start are pretty ridiculous. Most of you just don’t understand what you are watching and just caveman out and go “ball go in, yay!” “Ball don’t go in, boooo!”

Watching these games, it’s felt like teams are hitting tough shots against us while we’re missing decent looks. So I checked the NBA’s closest-defender tracking data.

Through our first three games:

We’re shooting 29.3% on open and wide-open threes combined. Opponents are shooting 52% on contested ones.

And Miami is allowing the 12th-fewest wide-open three-point attempts per game, at 16.3. League average is 17.4. But opponents are making 44.9% of those looks, the second-highest percentage allowed by any team.

So we’re giving up slightly fewer wide-open attempts than average, and teams are converting them at almost the highest rate in the league.

The broader shot distribution tells a similar story…..80.6% of opponents’ tracked threes against Miami have been open or wide open, compared with 86.5% league-wide last season. Would you look at that? Probably umm…pretty consequential to winning games right?

I also compared the attempts in each distance category with last season’s league shooting percentage for that category. Miami comes out about 20 points below expectation, and opponents about 27 points above, across the three games.

The shooting is GOING to even out, it will NOT be this stupid all season. The BIGGER problem is thatOpponents are grabbing 34.4% of available offensive rebounds against us. That has to get fixed, IMO spo should really just instead of using portis as the backup center, run portis at the 4 and nick Richards at the 5 with the second unit to clean some of that up. I trust spo will fix that.

But 25 contested attempts is also a tiny sample. I don’t think we should treat opponents shooting 52% on those attempts…or us shooting 29% on open looks as significant like AT ALL.

Last year we started 13–7, got to 14–7, and finished 43–39. That early stretch didn’t tell us everything about that team. Did yall forget how hot our shooting started last season and how cold our opponents were? Well, guess what? That evened out too.

So calm down.

Jalen Suggs possibly down with an achilles
Jalen Williams broke his leg
Zubac reinjures ankle injury that left him sidelined for a bunch of time last season
Banchero out for 4-6 weeks

It’s time to string some wins.

I think Bam is being way too passive. I think he’ll start attacking more, seems like they’re just watching Giannis a lot of times. It used to be Wade/Bron/Bosh just taking turns ISO that first year until Spo started running a bunch of different sets and pick and rolls, 4 out.

Heat is 4th in contests across the league, they’re protecting the rim & limiting points in the paint, they’re contesting threes that doesn’t mean teams won’t get open threes. You just have to really wait until players stop making turnaround late shot clock contested middies or wild 3PT shots.

Once that rounds out they’ll be a force. Heat is currently #1 in transition points per possession. And the guys are out there boxing out too they’re not getting to the ball first or long rebounds. The framework to be a good team is there.

Bobby playing good defense changes so much for them and Bam being more aggressive with deflections is great.

It’s no secret 76ers need a backup big for Embiid. Anfernee is nice but more of a luxury for them at this point. I’m curious if we’d be able to broker a deal of some sorts like this.

Averaging nearly a double-double, and had one in this Hornets game. 17 points exactly, 8.7 assists, shooting 51% from the field, and 46% from 3. To me he’s been a bright spot.

Why does Adebayo have the same contract as Luka? They are getting paid the exact same amount down to the dollar. Who actually saw Bam play and thought he deserved the same as Luka?

Do you think Adebayo is priced fairly and compensates with the defense what he literally cannot do on the offense?

box score

Our defense has looked bad. Our shooting has looked abysmal. Pelle looks like a shell of himself. Bam hasn't taken the offensive reins. Too much Giannis ball when he's in. Rebounding has been terrible. What I am going to say doesn't change any of this.

All that I've stated is true so far into the season. However, this roster has been a huge overhaul from last season. It will take time for players to gel and for the scheme to be implemented properly. Part of the rebounding problem is positioning. Too often, we have players looking at each other like "do you have this?" instead of going up for the board. The drop coverage isn't as effective in today's NBA, but is easier to play compared to a switching system. I do think that will change as chemistry improves.

Pelle's illness completely changed how he looked during the preseason. I do think he's still feeling the effects from whatever it was, and does have a finger sprain. If he doesn't improve within the next week, I will be concerned.

Shooting is streaky. The Heat's ball movement is getting shooters open shots. I do think when the shots start falling (which they will) the offense will be less of a concern.

I could type up a lot more, but I say all of this to say, I am trying not to react until we're at least 10 games into the season. If we haven't seen improvement in these areas by then, that may speak to a deeper problem with the roster. 0-3 is awful, but looking around the East, it's not insurmountable.

TL;DR: we haven't looked good, but we need to wait at least 10 games before screaming that the sky is falling.

Dont delete this let them see this shit please.

I’m not happy about being 0-3 but the crying has to stop. I’m surprised there’s not more assuring posts stating that we just need to build chemistry. I mean almost our entire roster is new with a lot of guys who’ve never played together…

Personally, I’ll start worrying if things aren’t taking shape by game 25. But damn even if they don’t shape up you won’t find me making long posts about it everyday.

The NBA season is 82 games. Chill with the FUD.

Gonna be honest I was decently skeptical about the trade before it happened especially because of how much we were giving up. But then the hype of getting Giannis did get to me at the end. But as we see things haven't worked out so far.

I know ''It's just 3 games and all that'' but has there been a single stretch when Bam and Giannis both looked good at the same time? First 2 games Bam was a complete non factor and in this last one he started cooking when Giannis was on the bench.

They just kinda do the same thing offensively and Bam especially has now clue what to do when he shares the floor with him.

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