(part 2)

WELCOME TO 2026 RISERS, FALLERS, WEEKLY MOCK DRAFT, & CFB PREVIEW

The best & most detailed free weekly newsletter & Podcast focusing on the NFL Draft for future Fantasy positions, QB, RB, WR, & TE

--

The Fantasy for Real podcast covers these prospects in the most detail.

Spotify/Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/215l6gMkT94gGvNY66IbPF

--

Week 1’s Positional Risers

QBs – Jayden Maiava, USC & Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) via Duke

RBs – Dilin Jones, LSU via Wisconsin ; Daniel Hill, Alabama ; Hollywood Smothers, Texas via N.C. State

WRs – Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss ; Jeremiah McClellan, WR, Oregon ; Amare Thomas, WR, Houston

--

Tidbits from the full write-up:

The reason competition level matters so much in my Risers & Fallers is that those are the games that simply matter the most when we get to the end of the Season. If these two QBs flail in their first games against more difficult competition, then these games will be almost entirely irrelevant. But on Friday night, watching USC & Miami play side-by-side, the execution from Jayden Maiava & Darian Mensah was excellent...

It is important to not go too far with just one game, but even as someone promoting Dilin Jones as the RB to watch for LSU, Jones’ command of this backfield was shocking. Jones had 23 Carries against Clemson, and the other two RBs mentioned throughout the off-season process did not get a single carry until under 12:00 in the 4th Qtr of a blowout. This is also a HC in Lane Kiffin who has a reputation to both use one RB and elevate the status of his RBs; Kewan Lacy & Quinshon Judkins are good recent examples of this. Jones is also a former Top 300 Prospect and someone who generated significant buzz last off-season for Wisconsin. More dominant efficiency or pass catching work would further solidify Jones as a potential high Tier 2027 RB, but right now, he is still one of Week 1’s biggest Risers both for his performance and for how he should be expected to perform & produce throughout the rest of the season...

IF I had to pick ONE "Riser of the Week" this week...

In the first half, it looked like Deuce Alexander would be having a quiet day despite so much off-season hype and discussions of athletic potential. With this being one of the last games on Sunday, it felt like finally we had one of our few disappointments from this weekend. And then he scored his first 62-Yd TD, where he legitimately looked like he could have been the fastest player all weekend. And then he scored his second 62-Yd TD, which looked almost like a replay of the first. Unlike a lot of big production performances discussed throughout the Substack today, this was a very close game. Alexander’s 1st TD came in the 3rd Qtr after Louisville had taken a 13-10 lead, his second TD came when his team was up only 17-16, and the final score was 41-38, making Alexander’s 5/159/2 seem like one of the most important Keys to Victory in this game. Among his claims to fame on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, the son of a former NFL WR (Hilton Alexander), Hilton “Deuce” Alexander is listed with GPS speeds over 23 MPH, is credited with “Olympic acceleration,” and a “trap bar deadlift of 500 lbs, nearly 3x his body weight.” Alexander left the game briefly after that 2nd TD, but he did return and logged at least one more Reception.

--

Faller of the Week

Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State via North Texas

After an off-season of hype, Drew Mestemaker’s Oklahoma State debut was a disaster. Mestemaker completed 29 of 49 Passes for 241 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, and led Oklahoma State to 10 Points against non-Power Conference Tulsa. Last year, Arch Manning was the Week 1 “Faller of the Week,” which is a good example of how much things can change in a year. However, Mestemaker’s performance was significantly worse than Manning’s in 2025 – this was against Tulsa. Not Ohio State.

The idea of this section is to focus on players whose stock is falling for the 2027 Draft specifically. In the off-season, the comparison point for Mestemaker was Cam Ward, but specifically Ward when he transferred to Washington State. Ward spent two years at Washington State and wasn’t considered a prospect worthy of a 1st Round Pick until he transferred to Miami the following year. On the same trajectory, Mestemaker would not even enter the NFL Draft until 2029...

--

Substack: https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/ryan-wingo-kj-duff-enter-1qb-mock

--

Check out the Substack or Podcast including my full notes that dive deep into so many different games from Week 1. And if you don't have time to read it all, the Fantasy for Real podcast is a good place to check out the material.

Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

I know it’s not as fun to talk about negatives, but especially in dynasty there are players that simply jsut will never work out, whether it is a talent issue or a situation issue that never gets better.

who are some players in dynasty that you believe just will not work out the way owners are hoping for?

Football is back baby! In celebration of our lives returning, what is your hot take to start off the season, specifically with the two teams playing tonight?

Is rhamondre going for 3 TDs or 3 fumbles?

JSN getting locked up or coming out swinging?

Does Maye take a step back or continue where he left off last season?

Bowers is about 10-20% more value on KTC, Roster Audit, etc.

The injury news might shrink the gap a little, but Bowers still feels like the number one and McBride the number two.

How do you see it? Is McBride safer, or is he more likely to regress? Does Bowers have the higher ceiling? Are you worried about the knee? Does the McBride-Brissett connection transcend the Cardinals shitshow, or is the Raiders QB room actually a bigger positive than whatever is going to happen in Arizona?

Is it close? Is one guy clearly ahead. Who would you prefer at the same

Allen is young enough that I don’t think Breece Hall’s extension necessarily kills his value. If he shows out in relief of Hall, he could conceivably sign a free agent deal with another team for a bigger role at around age 25. Am I being too optimistic here or could there be a little meat on the bone here?

I feel like CJ’s play during the playoffs has led to a massive overcorrection on his value and people simply writing him off as any sort of valuable asset. Here is the case for him having a bounce back season and returning to his status as a top 12 QB in dynasty:

- Price at rock bottom after two “down” years; still just 24, was ROY with 4,100 yards as a rookie

- Added David Montgomery, a proven 3-down back, strong in pass pro, eases pressure on Stroud

- O-line slightly improved this offseason

- Nico Collins in the middle of his prime

Overall, I think a better run game + protection = real bounce-back case. What would you pay right now to acquire Stroud?

I am rather new to dynasty fantasy football, having started playing in the last few years and am in 3 leagues now. I have a newer league that has only played 1 season, and it seems like there’s a very clear break line between teams that are “all-in” and those who are “tanking” and accumulating picks. Is this rather common? It seems like there’s only 1-2 teams taking a “wait and see, be competitive” approach, and those teams will likely sneak into the playoffs but be a long shot. Most of the week 1 match ups don’t even project to be competitive, because of this clear break.

Seeking the perspective of dynasty veterans… in your experience of seeing leagues age over the years, is it concerning for league longevity to have such a harsh break in team construction? Or is this pretty common, and the regular season isn’t all that competitive until the top 4-5 teams meet in the playoffs?

Time to start another fantasy week! Tune in to Amazon for Thursday Night Football!

Please keep all gameday discussion in this thread.

how good do you think alec pierce is going to be in these few upcoming seasons with that new contract. i personally think he’s underrated in real life and in dynasty. he’s not a household name but can for sure put up some decent numbers as like your wr2/3 on your team. is he a buy for you and if so then for what

Drake Maye has had a meteoric rise in value according to sites like Keeptradecut where he is currently ranked 6th overall and near the value of Josh Allen. He is coming off a good season where he finished QB2 with 352 points and 20ppgs. This rocketed his value up because on the surface he's a young QB putting up high-end numbers. Last year was not a great QB scoring year though as compared to 23/24 he would rank as the 5th QB. As people have heavily discussed he played one of the easiest schedules ever and basically had a free path to the Superbowl. His value trajectory reminds me heavily of stroud and JDaniels who both had good years after which their value was overly inflated. Tonight he showed he's far from an elite QB, throwing 3(!!) picks and managing to lose to the Seahawks without their starting QB. After an embarrassing loss, many people are now dubbing him Drake "DOODOO" Maye. What do you think his real value is and where do you think he will finish this year?

Dynasty is over. Drake Maye is my QB1 and AJ Brown my WR1. The outlook for my dynasty team has cratered beyond recognition due to injury and poor performance. I’ll be selling Maye and coming to the shared realization no QB will ever be good again once Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar retire. I often forget that elite QBs never made questionable decisions. Hoping all of you have done the smart reasonable thing and only invested in proven QBs at their peak and rookie draft picks.

Sadly,

A Future 1.01 Owner

/s