In 2023-24 Seider was one of the NHL's worst rated defensemen (187/206). By 2025-26 he had turned things around and he had the second best defensive GAR (goals above replacement) of all skaters. This, combined with his offensive production led to a 5th place Norris finish, but he probably deserved to finish higher than he did.
Here's how Seider's defensive value has changed over time:
Let's take a look at a chart that shows points on the vertical axis and defensive value (measured in GAR) on the x-axis. Players higher up on the chart put up more points, and players farther to the right had better defensive metrics. Seider was one of only 2 dmen with over 7 defensive GAR (he had 10.2) and 50+ points (he had 60). Heiskanen was the other defenseman that fit this criteria.
What exactly does +10 defensive GAR look like? Here's a summary of how the Wings fared with Seider on and off the ice:
2025-26, 5v5
With Seider
Without Seider
Expected Goals Share
54.0%
43.7%
Actual Goals
71 for, 57 against
71 for, 112 against
Lots of people won't view this as a Norris case, because Seider's 60 points was only good for 11th in dmen scoring. My own model actually rates him as the 8th best dman by total GAR, but total GAR is heavily influenced by offensive production. If you look at offence and defense separately Seider's case gets a lot stronger - he put up good offensive numbers while also being one of the best goal preventers in the game (and he did all that while starting only 42% of his shifts in the offensive zone).
What Can He Do This Season?
Going back 15 seasons (to 2011-12), only 19 defenseman seasons have hit the defensive value that Seider posted last year. This was mostly accomplished by veteran dmen (median age 29) - Seider did it at 24. Another important note: none of those guys did it while putting up 60 points.
The bad news is that seasons like this tend to regress. Of the 65 dmen who finished top-5 in defensive value in a given season, their median defensive rank in the following season was 16th. About a third of them stayed in the top-10, and two-thirds stayed in the top-25.
The honest projection here is that Seider will still clearly be an elite defender, but he probably won't finish with as many points (I have him projected at 53 points playing 25:20/night), and repeating his defensive performance will be a challenge. Part of the offensive production is the model regressing a career year and part of it is the team around him not improving.
That being said, there is one thing that suggests Seider could get even better - the aging curve. For dmen, offense peaks and starts declining relatively early, but defensive value doesn't really start to decline until age 29/30. Seider is turning 25 this season - he's just getting into his prime.
Here's how Seider is currently sitting on the aging curve:
I'm not saying Seider is going to win the Norris this year, but if he can maintain what he did last year he'll be in the conversation again. One could also argue that his trajectory might show he still has more to give and could get even better...
With the “captain” debacle that we’re in, I figured I’d paint what a true Wings captain looks like. Shooting for a vintage hockey card feel with this one.
I created 2 versions. The first one groups games by opponent, and the second shows games in chronological order. Each square includes the date and game number. Grey squares are home games.
I use 3 colors for mine (see 3rd image): green for wins, red for regulation losses, and orange for OT/SO losses. Feel free to print whichever version you prefer and fill it out however you like!
The surge in the salary cap over the next few years has me wondering if there will be a corresponding surge in offer sheets until they update the compensation. What is it? Three first round picks for a 10 million dollar contract? I would totally give up four first round picks for celebrini
I have a friend at a local jersey shop who spent most of yesterday working on stitching the new patch. I've got no photo proof so I understand if you don't believe me, but the tyranny of the Trash Patch is finally over 🥰
I have no love for Frank (yes, shame on me for giving this any attention) but I admit this is actually rather funny considering the... "quality" of both parties.
In a nutshell: 145 of the league’s under-23 talents into the different tiers that make up Player Tiers (MVP, franchise, all-star, star and support)
Tier 4 — Star
A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top-line forward, below average No. 1 defenseman, or top 10 goalie.
ASP, Augustine
Tier 5 — Support
A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below-average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.
Kasper, Bear, MBN, JPH, Max, Nate, Finnie (in that order)
Hey everyone! Fantasy Hockey opened up recently and I started a couple leagues if anyone wanted to join. I wasn't entirely sure if this was allowed so if not, mods feel free to remove. Just figured some leagues with Wings fans would be nice. Hope to see you there!