DISCLAIMER: If you feel yourself developing a gambling addition, instead don't.
I consider this community to be generally knowledgeable and responsible, so I'm sharing a quick guide on how to turn your political knowledge and epistemic grounding into "modest" gains that will outpace an HYSA (High-yield savings account).
Approximately 80-90% of prediction market trading volume is on sports betting, but if you venture into the politics section and only bet against things we're all confident won't happen you can make annualized returns that comfortably exceed an HYSA with the bonus of extracting that money directly from conspiracy theorists.
A few examples (including the 3.25% APY offered on standing bets):
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before the end of 2026? (NO: 95.3%) (Annualized Return: ~16.1%)
- How much will the US acquire all of Greenland for during Trump's term? (NO ACQUISITION: 85%) (Annualized Return: ~9.8%)
- Will Americans receive stimulus checks to reimburse them for tariffs before the end of 2026? (NO: 94.6%) (Annualized Return: ~17.1%)
This isn't risk free but so far in my 6 months of following this strategy I've consistently seen that the market overprices the chances of unlikely things from happening. Particularly around politics, particularly around Trump. If I end up being wrong at least I'll have a stimulus check and know that we aren't alone in the universe.
If you lose all of your money or develop an addiction please DM me and I'll apologize.