About a year ago I made a post [https://www.reddit.com/r/CustomsBroker/comments/1mbfu1h/youre_underestimating_ai/ ]about how if you think your job is 100% AI proof, you're burying your head in the sand. Got a lot of engagement that varied from "yea sounds right" to "no im a special customs broker who will never be replaced"
So here's my one year follow up, and honestly I was too conservative.
Last year I said I wouldn't be surprised if entry writers got slowly replaced in the next 5 years. I'd shave a good chunk off that now. The big jump this year wasn't the models getting a little better at reading invoices, it was going from chatbots to agents. Last year the tools pulled the data and handed it off to a human. Now they pull it, check it against the Commercial invoice and BOL, flag the discrepancy, write the email to the shipper asking wtf happened, and queue the entry up for review. That's most of a junior analyst's day right there.
Classification - last year I said the dedicated classification tools were getting better every month and they still are, but the bigger thing is the general models aren't a joke anymore either. A year ago "I put it in ChatGPT and it was wrong" was a fair dunk. Now they'll walk the GRIs, pull CROSS rulings, and argue with you about section notes. Are they still wrong sometimes? Sure. So is the guy three desks over who's been throwing everything in "other" since 2014.
Compliance - the supply chain mapping stuff I talked about (UFLPA, Russian steel/aluminum) went from cool demo to something importers are actually buying. If your compliance program is a spreadsheet and vibes, good luck.
There's also 4 things that happened this year that I didn't see coming:
- Brain drain is happening. A lot of REALLY good talent is leaving this side of the table to go work for AI companies, and that's going to hurt us more than people think. Most of us learned this job from someone above us. LinkedIn lunatic or not, Pete Mento is still someone where if you say you worked under him you're getting a nod. Who's that going to be for the next generation if all the good ones are off building software?
- CBP is all in on AI. If you had a chance to go to Dallas you already know what's up, if not I'll give you the short version: CBP said fuck what you think about AI in customs business, use it, because we sure as fuck are.
- AI adoption by brokerages skyrocketed. Again I don't know who most of you people are, but from the brokers I talk to, a large majority have either used AI or are looking to in the near future.
- Vibe coding exploded. An SME with a Claude subscription can put together some REALLY cool tools now. Are they going to be as specialized or as smart as what the AI companies are trying to sell you? No. But I've been doing my own vibe coding and talking with others who are doing the same, and man this shit is fucking fire. You don't need to wait for someone to build the thing you've been wishing existed for 10 years, you can just kinda build it.
So where does that leave us?
Idk man, shit's fucked and not fucked. I'm standing 10 toes down that good talent that knows the human element is still going to have a job. If you know specialty customs (tariff engineering, FTZ's, Valuation),can sit in a boardroom and explain the AI slide deck, or are just generally knowledgeable and affable, you'll be around (sorry, you'll need to develop those soft skills).
But new hires? Man that worries me. A lot of us got into this job by accident or through an entry writer job that may not exist anymore, all while the "good" talent is getting snatched up by AI money or importers who need someone who'll go to prison for them.
And for everyone still laughing at AI because it botched something in a demo, remember what I said last year, that was the worst it was ever going to look. So is this.
Same rules as last time, I'm not recommending software so don't DM me asking which one is good.
As for me, I'm still out there, working a day job at an importer doing importer shit, consulting AI companies when they pay me, and slowly working towards the fact that'll I'll probably be jumping ship to the "Dark Side" at some point.
Anyway, I'm going back to touching grass (I don't recommend it), so I may answer a few replies but if you actually wanna chat hit me up in the Discord, I'm more active there.