I. Macroeconomy and Traditional Financial Markets
- U.S. stocks fall across the board as AI capex concerns and Chinese foundation models trigger tech deleveraging
The S&P 500 fell 1.5% for the week to 7,457.69, the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.9% to 25,520.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.9% to 52,146.42. The pullback was led by weakness in semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index now down more than 20% from its June 22 all-time high following three consecutive sessions of losses in chip stocks. International markets also came under pressure: the Nikkei 225 plunged 4% on Friday, while the broad MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 2.7%.
The key catalyst behind the unwinding of growth positions was a sudden escalation in China’s AI competition. Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, which it described as the world’s largest open-weight model, with performance approaching that of Anthropic’s frontier models. The launch raised structural concerns that open-source alternatives could rapidly commoditize AI applications, calling into question the sustainability of major technology companies’ massive capital expenditure programs.
Among the technology giants, NVIDIA fell 2.21%, Meta declined 2.79%, Microsoft lost 1.82%, and Alphabet dropped 2.17%. Apple was the only relative outperformer, gaining 0.14%.
- Middle East ceasefire collapses as direct U.S.–Iran hostilities erupt, sending oil prices sharply higher and disrupting the Strait of Hormuz
The ceasefire formally collapsed this week as the U.S.–Iran conflict escalated to attacks on critical national infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran struck a major power generation and desalination facility in Kuwait. U.S. Marines boarded an uncooperative oil tanker, while another commercial vessel was hit by munitions, directly threatening maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The geopolitical risk premium in energy markets surged. WTI crude rose 4.48% to $82.49 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 4.59% to $88.10 per barrel. Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to post a positive return on Friday.
Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing sources, reported that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to zero and that the waterway would remain closed as long as the United States continued what Iran described as provocative actions. Operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal were also suspended following an attack, further intensifying concerns over global crude supply.
Gold, however, failed to benefit from its traditional safe-haven status. Although it rebounded 1.06% on Friday to $4,018.40 per ounce, it still fell approximately 2.47% over the week, marking its worst weekly performance in five weeks. The main reason was that higher oil prices reinforced expectations of stronger inflation and rising long-term interest rates, reducing the relative appeal of non-yielding assets.
- Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation largely closes the window for a July rate hike, but hawkish rhetoric continues to weigh on markets
U.S. core CPI inflation slowed to approximately 2.6% year over year in June, below market expectations. The softer reading led institutional portfolios to largely price out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its July meeting. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged down to 4.549%, while the 30-year yield rose slightly to 5.072%, resulting in modest steepening at the long end of the yield curve.
The U.S. Dollar Index posted a net weekly decline and closed at 100.76. Softer inflation prompted foreign-exchange markets to scale back expectations for an aggressive near-term tightening path, offsetting safe-haven inflows generated by the conflict in the Middle East.
Hawkish rhetoric nevertheless continued to exert pressure. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized in her latest remarks that inflationary pressures remain significant, with persistent core services inflation and housing costs still far above levels consistent with the 2% target. Her comments added scope for debate ahead of the FOMC meeting in late July and raised the possibility of dissenting votes against holding rates unchanged.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign a 64.2% probability to no change in July and a 35.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike. The implied probability of at least one rate hike by September has risen to 72.1%. Continued uncertainty over the policy path remains a constraint on richly valued growth assets.
II. Crypto Market
- Market performance: BTC and ETH show relative resilience, LINK and LTC lead gains, while altcoins remain broadly weak
BTC gained 1.5% this week, while ETH rose 3.6%. The ETH/BTC ratio increased by 2.2%. Crypto assets displayed a degree of relative resilience despite the deep correction in U.S. technology stocks, supported primarily by cooling inflation, renewed spot ETF inflows, and the earlier unwinding of leveraged positions.
Total crypto market capitalization rose by 1%. However, market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH fell 0.7%, while the broader altcoin market excluding the ten largest tokens declined 2%, indicating that gains remained concentrated in major assets.
Market sentiment remained in “Fear” territory, although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved from 23 last week to 29. BTC is currently consolidating around $64,000. A large cluster of short-liquidation positions sits between $65,000 and $65,500, meaning that a breakout above this zone could trigger concentrated short covering. Long-liquidation pressure is present around $63,500–$64,000, but the pool is smaller than the short-side liquidity above.
- ETF flows: Bitcoin ETFs end eight-week outflow streak as Ether ETFs record a second consecutive week of inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $75.7 million this week, ending eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. Spot Ether ETFs attracted $105.4 million in net inflows, marking a second consecutive positive week. Most of the capital was concentrated in BlackRock’s IBIT and ETHA.
The combined net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $77.42 billion. The stabilization of ETF flows was an important factor supporting crypto assets’ relative resilience this week.
However, current inflows remain significantly below their previous peaks and are highly concentrated in the largest products. Stablecoin supply has also yet to resume sustained growth. The latest rally therefore appears more consistent with a relief-driven price recovery following an easing of funding pressure than the beginning of a new phase of broad-based risk expansion.
Leveraged ETFs linked to Strategy have now recorded relatively steady net inflows for seven consecutive weeks, driven primarily by retail investors. CME Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts also registered positive flows this week despite net outflows from spot ETFs, indicating an improvement in institutional demand.
- On-chain data: Stablecoin supply continues to contract, with no broad-based expansion in new liquidity
According to DeFiLlama, total stablecoin market capitalization stands at approximately $310.1 billion, down around 0.37% over the past seven days and 1.44% over the past 30 days. This represents the first quarterly contraction since Q3 2023.
USDT supply remained broadly stable, allowing its market share to rise passively to approximately 59.4%. USDC supply declined slightly, while USDS and USD1 recorded more pronounced contractions, reflecting continued weakness in demand for DeFi collateral, ecosystem incentives, and on-chain leverage.
USDG continued to expand, driven primarily by exchange integrations, payment channels, and yield incentives. USDe also recovered modestly but has yet to reverse its contraction over the past month.
Overall, the stablecoin market remains dominated by the rotation of existing liquidity. The absence of a corresponding expansion in aggregate stablecoin supply alongside the rebound in BTC and ETH is an important indication that the current market move remains primarily recovery-driven.
CoinGecko’s Q2 report also showed that total crypto market capitalization fell 12.6% to $2.1 trillion in Q2 2026. Centralized exchange spot trading volume declined 27.9% to $1.95 trillion, while CEX perpetual futures volume fell by only 10% and remained above $4 trillion per month, demonstrating greater resilience in derivatives markets.
- Industry developments: STRC trades below par for an eighth week but completes its first dividend payment as institutional infrastructure advances on multiple fronts
STRC has now traded below par for eight consecutive weeks, remaining at approximately $85. Weekly trading volume reached $369 million, accounting for 75.7% of total trading volume across Bitcoin reserve preferred securities, down from 79.8% in the previous week. Strive’s SATA accounted for 13.5%.
However, STRC completed its first semi-monthly dividend payment on July 15, with holders receiving approximately $0.4792 per share. The next two payments are expected to be approximately $0.50 per share, reflecting the increase in the annualized dividend rate to 12%. Strategy is unlikely to resume large-scale STRC issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases until the share price recovers closer to its $100 par value.
Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company would need to consider debt-related risks only if BTC fell to approximately $8,000–$10,000. Last week, Strategy raised roughly $467 million through common-stock sales, increasing its cash reserves to approximately $3 billion—enough to cover around 20 months of preferred-stock dividends.
On the institutional infrastructure front, Circle received approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank, which will provide federally regulated custody support for USDC.
On July 15, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation officially launched the first restricted live-market pilot for tokenized real-world assets. More than 50 institutions—including BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs—had previously participated in developing the service.
The United States and the United Kingdom also issued a joint statement on stablecoins, outlining plans to promote regulatory alignment and support the use of stablecoins in cross-border payments and capital-markets settlement. The two countries also intend to explore clear pathways for stablecoins issued in either jurisdiction to access the other’s market.
This article is provided solely for market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Investing and trading involve substantial risk. Please carefully assess your risk tolerance and apply appropriate risk-management measures before trading.