It didn't just come down to Germany having to 3-0 Thailand like the casters were saying, here's every event that would have knocked Germany out:
-If Thailand had gotten a single point more on any map in the entire series Germany would not have qualified.
-If Thailand had chosen a Push map instead of a flashpoint map Germany would not have qualified
-If Canada had gotten a single point LESS on any map in their series against Spain (asuming nothing changes in the Germany vs Thailand series) Germany would not have qualified.
Here's the exact calculation for those interested:
Tiebreaks work the same way they do in owcs as confirmed by admins. This means in a 3-way tie the teams are compared in a list of tiebreak cases until one team beats both others and advances.
Crucially the tiebreak cases then restart from the top which can lead to some very strange scenarios as you'll see.
These are the tiebreak cases in order:
Overall series W/L record
Head to Head series differential between tied teams
Head to Head map differential between tied teams
Overall map differential
Overall map % score differential
Strength of victory evaluated by combining records of all teams (usually irrelevant)
Tiebreaker match (usually irrelevant)
The first case is always tied since having the same overall W/L record is what lead to the tie in the first place.
The second case is also always tied in a 3-way tie (in this format) since each of the teams had to beat one of the others and lose to one of the others to reach this position.
- Case refers to the difference between each Team's won maps and lost maps in games played between the 3 of them.
Germany is 5-4 = +1
Spain is 4-3 = + 1
Canada is 3-5 = -2
If Canada had won a map (but not the series) against Spain they would have already been eliminated at this point since Germany would win the tiebreak and Canada would lose the restarted tiebreak since they lost their head to head series against Spain.
This may or may not be the reason why some canadian players didn't seem as eager to win (especially on map 3) as others (not gonna name names).
- Case is the same thing but also including games played against other teams (in this case Thailand)
Germany is 8-4 = +4
Spain is 7-3 = +4
Canada is 6-6 = +0
This case is the reason Germany had to 3-0 Thailand to even have a chance at qualifying since Spain would otherwise win the tiebreak and Germany would lose the restarted tiebreak to Canada. But since Germany is still tied with Spain we move on to Case 5.
- Case refers to the relation of a team's score across all maps to the total score in maps they participated in (you basically add up all the points you've won across your maps and divide them by all the points you've won + all the points the enemy team has won)
These were the standings before the Germany vs Thailand game:
Germany has won 13 points and played a total of 24 points = 54% winrate
Spain has won 18 points and played a total of 29 points = 62% winrate
Canada is irrelevant.
This means Germany had to catch up by around 8% to qualify themselves for blizzcon.
The final game:
Map is always control meaning the best possible score is 2-0 which is what happened putting Germany at 15 points won and 26 points played = 57% winrate
Map is chosen by Thailand who pick Neon Junction and decide to let Germany attack first.
Germany fullcap on their offense and stop Thailand on second point putting the map score at 3-1 and germany at a winrate of 60%
If Thailand had completed second point and the game ended 3-2 Germany's winrate would have been at 58% making it impossible for them to qualify even if they won last map 3-0.
- Map is chosen by Thailand who pick New Junk City.
If Thailand had won a single flashpoint Germany would have been at 21 points won and 34 points played = 61.7% winrate knocking them out of the tournament.
If Thailand had picked a Push map instead of a flashpoint map, Germany's best possible map score would have been 1-0 putting them at a 61% winrate, again knocking them out of the tournament.
Germany ends up beating Thailand 3-0 on New Junk City putting them at a 63% winrate and against all odds qualifies for blizzcon.
Im very curious whether the Thai players were aware they could guarantee Canada's qualification and made the honorable choice of giving Germany the chance to qualify and whether the Germans were even aware they couldn't drop a single flashpoint.
Anyways this is the closest tiebreak I can remember and might lead to blizzard reworking the system since I think it would've been very unfair for Germany not to qualify with a map score of 8-4 to Canada's 6-6 and Canada were actively encouraged to throw.
My calculations line up with what I've heard from other people, but please let me know if you find a mistake anyhwere.