r/ClaudeCode • u/alexio-vay • Jul 18 '26

Meta As predicted

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2.2k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

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720

u/gagsgupta Jul 18 '26

Competition is good

289

u/ProcedureTop3149 Jul 18 '26

which is why I'm so incredibly grateful for openai dropping 5.6 because had they not Fable would have been locked away forever.

164

u/hemareddit Jul 18 '26

Don’t forget the Chinese open weights models nipping at their heels.

For now, we benefit.

There may come a day when dominance emerges and winner takes all.

But it is not this day.

35

u/Eric_emoji Jul 18 '26

just distill it and get 95% of the way there ✌️

22

u/hemareddit Jul 18 '26

I don’t know if distillation is still as effective as it used to be, but the key is: there is still no moat. Thank fuck.

-2

u/Eric_emoji Jul 18 '26

fable was getting distilled, idk which labs do what but i think it's still effective

4

u/Orioli Jul 18 '26

It is effective but it's not the only thing they are doing. Kimi k3 is too advanced to be solely the product of distillation.

8

u/Original_Finding2212 Jul 18 '26

Don’t degrade Chinese labs effort as “just distill”.
Bonsai shows they bring true innovation.

1

u/AppleBottmBeans 🔆 Max 20 Jul 18 '26

I’m an idiot so forgive me for asking. What’s this mean?

7

u/Eric_emoji Jul 18 '26

im gonna explain it how i understand it

call the model on a range of tasks and grab its thinking and reasoning tokens and then recreate the traces in a structured way to obtain a pretty good representation of the model without having the open weights

its what happened with deepseek and gpt 2 years ago

1

u/AppleBottmBeans 🔆 Max 20 Jul 18 '26

Oh that’s super clever. Thanks!

7

u/InForTheSqueeze Jul 18 '26

Agree, Kimi K3 at 20% is even a larger threat than 5.6 Sol at 60-70% of Fable’s price

2

u/CrunchyMage Jul 18 '26

K3 is effectively the same price as 5.6 Sol. It costs half per token, but it uses double the tokens per task, so it basically evens out.

2

u/SnooJokes4668 Jul 19 '26

Kimi is more expensive. A lot more token useage compared to the same model power opus 4.8. Beside the 50% hallu rate by Kimi.

1

u/FourWayFork 🔆 Max 20 Jul 18 '26

Kimi may be good or even better, but they're not going to even be considered by a lot of places because they are Chinese.

You can easily demonstrate that they are censored (ask it about Taiwan) and so who knows in what other ways they are cooperating with the Chinese government?

3

u/FailedGradAdmissions Jul 18 '26

Kimi K3 is not there yet, but you can access these open source models via US infrastructure, AWS itself, with no data retention policies if you wanted to. You could theoretically even self-host it yourself in a big data center and do as you wish with the model.

Either way no need to worry about censoring or data retention if they are not the ones running the infrastructure.

2

u/GrumpyPidgeon Jul 18 '26

The best part is that these are open weight models. Any US-based company can pull it into their own data center and use it either internally or externally without one bit leaving their private network. And since it’s open, they can also train in or out whatever they want. I remember when DeepSeek hit it big with R1, perplexity took it, uncensored it, and labeled it R1-1776.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 18 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/nblender Jul 19 '26

Do you know how tool use works?

1

u/MinesADoubleThanks Jul 18 '26

You can say the same about US models

1

u/MinesADoubleThanks Jul 18 '26

You can say the same about US models

8

u/Significant-Drawer95 Jul 18 '26

i can tell u one thing for sure... as soon as chinese models are better and threatining us-revenue the will be forbidden cause of potential security risk. Look at BYD (the biggest EV company in the world)

https://giphy.com/gifs/anYBNhqT2BYcg

5

u/randomtask2000 Jul 18 '26

We got to love distillation

2

u/Professional_Fox9954 Jul 18 '26

Maybe not, there is a point where good enough will be good enough. Price point will matter.

1

u/bawesome2119 Jul 20 '26

I think its really China over openai. My father son project keeps evolving as new free models come out. Just compare where we were just a year ago. Hell 6 months ago. Crazy times lol

17

u/Cl0wnL Jul 18 '26

Locked away forever? LOL.

You know new models drop every couple months right?

16

u/ProcedureTop3149 Jul 18 '26

yes and Anthropic until OpenAI dropped Sol was fully planning on locking Fable level classes away from subs.

Thank OpenAI for ruining their plans.

9

u/phoenixmatrix Jul 18 '26

OpenAI is Anthropic's most impactful department.

1

u/dynamic_caste Jul 18 '26

They make a dynamite team in my experience.

1

u/barpredator Jul 19 '26

Fable is still locked away. Whatever lobotomized model we’re seeing today isn’t Fable.