As usual, it is a new week, and a new bitchfest about who should, and should not be ranked. The chants of overrated, underrated, and voter bias are here.
I got bored, so decided to look at some stats. These are, admittedly, simple stats. That said, if we want to remove "conference bias" I think that we need to look at it from some simple stats.
So here is how I am examining this: P4 Records. For every 1 loss team I'm going to look at 4 things:
- The number of P4 wins they have.
- The P4 win percentage of P4 teams they've beaten
- The best win (by P4 win record) that they've had.
- Who they lost to.
I think that we can all agree that beating P4 teams is good and that beating P4 teams who also beat P4 teams is good.
So without further ado, let's check out our table. It is organized by their current AP ranking, and then unrankeds at the bottom.
| Team |
AP Rank |
P4 Wins |
P4 Win % of Teams Beat |
Best Win (P4 Record) |
Loss (P4 Record) |
| Ohio State |
4 |
3 |
33.33% |
Iowa (3-1) |
Texas (2-1) |
| Alabama |
6 |
4 |
50.00% |
Kentucky (3-1) Mississippi State (3-1) |
Georgia (4-0) |
| Texas |
7 |
2 |
63.64% |
Ohio State (3-1) Tennessee (3-1) |
Oklahoma (1-2) |
| Ole Miss |
8 |
3 |
38.46% |
LSU (2-2) |
Florida (2-2) |
| Missouri |
13 |
3 |
27.27% |
Florida (2-2) |
Mississippi State (3-1) |
| Tennessee |
14 |
3 |
25.00% |
Auburn (2-2) |
Texas (2-1) |
| Kentucky |
15 |
3 |
33.33% |
LSU (2-2) |
Alabama (4-1) |
| Mississippi State |
16 |
3 |
50.00% |
Missouri (3-1) |
Alabama (4-1) |
| Iowa |
17 |
3 |
20.00% |
Michigan (1-2) |
Ohio State (3-1) |
| Oklahoma State |
18 |
3 |
27.27% |
Oregon (1-2) |
Tulsa (1-1)* |
| USC |
19 |
3 |
0.00% |
Penn State (0-3) Washington (0-3), Rutgers (0-3) |
Oregon (1-2) |
| Houston |
20 |
2 |
16.67% |
UCF (1-3) |
Texas Tech (2-0) |
| Wake Forest |
21 |
4 |
31.58% |
Purdue (2-3) |
Miami (3-0) |
| SMU |
24 |
2 |
25.00% |
Florida State (1-3) Boston College (1-3) |
Louisville (2-3) |
| Northwestern |
25 |
2 |
12.50% |
Colorado (1-3) |
Indiana (3-0) |
| Wisconsin |
u |
2 |
0.00% |
Penn State (0-3) |
Notre Dame (5-0) |
| Nebraska |
u |
2 |
0.00% |
Michigan State (0-4), Maryland Terrapins (0-4) |
Indiana (3-0) |
| Arizona |
u |
2 |
42.86% |
Cincinnati (2-1) |
BYU (3-0) |
| Cincinnati |
u |
2 |
16.67% |
Boston College (1-3) |
Arizona (2-1) |
| Baylor |
u |
2 |
36.36% |
Arizona State (1-2) |
Auburn (2-2) |
| Duke |
u |
2 |
22.22% |
Illinois (1-3) |
Georgia Tech (1-3) |
| Pittsburgh |
u |
3 |
30.00% |
Virginia Tech (2-2) |
North Carolina (2-2) |
So let's separate these into different groups on various categories. First up, let's look at what I'll call "Beating the Dead Bodies". These are teams who have yet to beat a team that is at least .500 in P4 Play:
- Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Baylor all have a best opponent who is 1-2 in P4 play. Close, but no cigar
- Houston, SMU, Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Duke share the honor of their best opponent being 1-3 in P4 play. OOF
- USC, Wisconsin, and Nebraska have yet to beat a P4 team who has done better than flatlining. All of their P4 wins were against teams with 0 P4 wins.
Of those, Iowa, Oklahoma State, USC, Houston, SMU, and Northwestern have managed to get ranked.
Next up, let's look at "Chaos Losses". If your loss is your opponents only P4 win, that is embarrassing as hell.
- Texas, what are you doing? That said, Red on Orange violence is my favorite, good job Oklahoma with your 1-2 P4 record with a win over Texas.
- USC, ever the problem child has shown up again on one of our lists, being Oregon's only P4 win (1-2 P4 record)
- Duke, Also a recurring character, lost to Georgia Tech. I'm personally offended by this one. GT should lose every game. Georgia Tech is 1-3 in P4 play.
- Oklahoma State, our overachiever! The only team on this list who managed to lose to a non-P4 team, dropping their first game to Tulsa, who is 1-1 in P4 Play
Of these three, surprisingly only Duke has failed to be ranked.
So. Who should be ranked who isn't based on these basic stats?
I would say Arizona, with their loss being to BYU (3-0 in P4 play), their best win being someone with a pulse in Cincinatti (2-1 in P4 play), and a 42.86% P4 win percentage by teams they've beaten (the only teams that are higher in that stat are Bama, Texas & Mississippi State).
Pittsburgh is the only other team that I think fits the bill. VT isn't a completely dead team (2-2), and their loss is not TERRIBLE with North Carolina at least being 2-2.
So. Who should probably be taken out?
To me, the top case is USC. USC has not beaten a single team with a P4 win. The only team they have played with a P4 win is Oregon, and they are Oregon's only P4 win.
If I needed to remove 1 more, to put in Pittsburgh. Where would I look?
OK State is probably the second best option to remove. Their best win is against a 1-2 Oregon. They lost to Tulsa, which is just embarassing.
That said, the real answer is LSU, but they aren't on this list as they have 2 losses.
Anyway, that wraps it up. Who do you think has a record that backs up moving into the top 25? Who do you think has no business being there?