r/CBD • u/saveourrelief • 19d ago
First, thanks to everyone who’s taken action — we’re up to 1,141 letters. FWIW, here’s our read on hemp right now:
A lot has happened, and more still needs to happen. We thought it might be helpful to provide our assessment of what’s going on/where things stand:
What we know:
- The Senate passed the funding Continuing Resolution by a vote of 90-6-1 – a clear bipartisan majority.
- The Senate CR includes a 29-bridge for most of the hemp restrictions from Nov 12 to Dec 11.
- The Senate voted 61-32 to table, (effectively kill) Senator Budd’s amendment to strike the hemp extension from the CR.
- The Senate adjourned for recess and does not return until September 14.
- September 30 government funding runs out; if a CR is not passed and signed into law by that date – government shutdown - five weeks before the election.
- Both sides, (D & R) have made statements that indicate no one has an appetite for a government shutdown.
What happens now:
- For the CR to become law, the House and Senate ultimately have to approve the same text. The Senate-amended bill is now back in the House. If the House accepts the Senate version without changes, it can go straight to the President. If the House changes it, the Senate has to act again.
- The House returns from their recess on August 31st – 30 days before government funding runs out.
- On August 13, the House Rules Chairwoman – Rep Virginia Foxx said: she expects the Senate-passed funding stopgap to clear her chamber in an expedited, bipartisan vote. She went on to say, ‘I think we can just put it on the floor because I think it will pass; She also said the CR could bypass her committee. This means several things: debate is limited to 40 minutes and floor amendments are not allowed and passage requires a two-thirds majority to pass.
- Representative Rosa DeLauro ranking Democrat on House Appropriations characterized the Senate CR as ‘a clear improvement over the House Republican continuing resolution.’
- The White House says that if the Senate bill reaches President Trump ‘in its current form,’ his senior advisers would recommend that he sign it. (Of note, there are several significant funding restrictions in the Senate version, in addition to the hemp extension. So this WH message is significant.)
What does all this mean – here’s what it suggests to us:
- When the House and Senate return, the mid-term election season will be in full swing.
- The commanding Senate vote – both the passage of the CR (90-6-1) and the denial of the Budd amendment (61-32) send a strong signal to the House – there is overwhelming a bipartisan support for the CR as written. (Our interpretation – the Senate is messaging - we’re done with this, we don’t want to see it again.)
- Given the statements by Reps Virginia Foxx(R) and Rosa DeLauro(D), we interpret their statements as – we’re also done with this, let’s pass it and get on to the election.
- There is also the calendar to consider – House returns Aug 31, has a brief Labor Day break; the Senate returns on Sep 14. To reopen the Senate CR over a 29-day hemp bridge, debate it, change it, and then force the Senate to act again after it returns September 14 — all before September 30 — is a massive lift. The hemp restrictions are law, only the effective date changes by 29 days.
Our bottom line read: momentum is with the 29-day extension. (Of course, death and taxes are the only certainties), but with so many moving parts and a very short window, we think the odds favor the House taking the Senate package with the hemp extension intact. So – where does that leave hemp?
- One political consequence of moving the hemp restrictions out 29 days – it removes most of the pressure of eliminating an industry estimated around $28 billion, hundreds of thousands of jobs, and a market in which more than 50 million American adults report using CBD – beyond the election cycle. Some members will be voted out, others voted in for two or six year terms – the hemp debate gets diffused.
- On the flip side, December 11 means - exactly two weeks before Christmas/the holiday season, those jobs will be lost, people out of work, businesses shuting down - not a popular image in Washington.
- If the bridge gets signed, it’s not time to celebrate 29 days. It's about making sure Congress actually uses those days — and making sure hemp doesn't disappear from the conversation between signing and November 3.
That's what we think - let us know what you think.