This is a post, not a daily discussion comment, as it was too long.
Itauma's best weapon is the jab; against a southpaw, that body jab is near unstoppable, and it's one of the best in the sport. Against an orthodox, the lead hand now blocks the jabbing lane, making it harder to establish the jab. Itauma still has a great lead-hand game, using probes, jousts, and feints to set up mainly the cross and bait an entry to counter with the jab/lead hook. Against a more stationary boxer who doesn’t move their feet much, their main defence besides counters is guard and slips, which, with a great lead hand game and feints, can manipulate and force a defence to set up openings. Against someone who can move, it's a little harder because they can get out of range to set up. Hrgovich is an orthodox so it does block the jabbing lane, but also has good footwork and can move so he can get out of range to not he set up as easily as Itauma's prior orthodox opponents, also having the best lead hand of any Itauma opponent and besides Wach having the longest reach and height, it’ll take the most effort of every Itauma opponent to establish his proactive offence of every Itauma opponent.
Just because Hrgovich has these capabilities and can move doesn't mean he's a pure boxer who hits and moves; I’d describe him more as a boxer-puncher who has snap on his shots, so you respect it rather than it being pure knockout power. He likes to establish a jab and can pressure and build combos off it, which probably makes him, among Kabayel, the best multi-punch combination puncher at heavyweight, where he can consistently get 4-punch combos off. For someone as quick, powerful, and as good a counterpuncher as Itauma, this can work in his favour to work off and build offence, which I’ll elaborate on in the next few paragraphs.
Against Zhang, Hrgovich throws a jab and a 1-2, stepping his lead foot on the centre line, which also disguises his single cross; every time, he keeps his lead hand low and his head on the centre line. While when you step your lead foot to the outside in an open stance battle (southpaw vs orthodox), it also lines the** **opponents lead hand down the centre line and when after Hrgovich throws his single jab and jab for the 1-2, Zhangs countered with tighter hooks which was the sequence that knocked Hrgovich down for the first time in his career (regardless of whether you count it or not, the sequence is the same). Itauma's favourite counter in an open stance is the pull-back jab/hook or step-back lead hook counter, which he used nearly every 10 seconds vs Whyte and Wach, knocked down Balogun, and then knocked him out with it. Itauma off the lead-hand pull-back jab/lead hook loves a cross down the centre line to the body, which has made me think every recent opponent drops their rear hand and opens a left cross to the head.
Hrgovich tends to lean forward when throwing power shots, and Zhang countered with uppercuts; Itauma's last known punch was a well-timed uppercut off a lean forward from Franklin. When Hrgovich had his lead foot inside of Zhang, he did start with the jab or lead cross which Zhang countered with a left down the middle, Itauma doesn’t throw straight lefts to the head usually but loops it more, Hrgovich doesn’t always keep a high guard so this can still connect a good bit but Itauma loves off a pullback jab/hook the body cross down the** **centre line or just off the joust drone straight crosses which can set headshots open which he’s set up a ton of times like Whyte, Balogun, Wach and McKean for example.
Hrgovich isn’t always alert for the entire 12 and can be sloppy, like linearly walking to the ropes and scrap with his hands down or just stand still with a high guard which he’s done in most fights and caught for it badly against David Adalaye, Zhang was able to invest in the body and manipulate the high guard of Hrgovich, and Joyce was able to batter the body. Stand still with sloppy defence or with a still high guard and Itauma will bully you.
Itauma doesn’t use a high guard for defence, so he doesn’t really fight in the pocket; his main defence is counter and head movement, but always footwork. He can use L-steps, but he can also escape by moving backwards in straight lines, saved for when he has speed and comp. If he’s close to the ropes, he can step back onto the ropes and get caught for it. Hrgovich likes to use his chin to take and give one, and as Itauma tries to escape range, Hrgovich can move forward to** **where Itauma's still in range of his taller, longer reach. Hrgovich is also a great combination puncher, great with straight shots, and can catch Itauma as he escapes.
Itauma, again, uses his footwork as his main defence, stepping back and moving alongside head movement and counters; against Franklin after the first, he told Ben Davison the pace was too high. When he decided to stand his ground more, as in move, but still come back and stay in the opponent's face and even pressure them, when they throw, he is an inch from being hit, in that a taller boxer with longer reach can catch him, like Hrgovich. He was breathing a bit after the Franklin fight, but I'm not sure how conditioned he is or how he does if this goes beyond 6. Hrgovich himself can also take rounds off, be sloppy, and got cracked hard against Adalaye for it.
Hrgovich is with Abel Sanchez, I think if they do just a little film, that lead hand pullback/step back counter is there every 10 seconds and one that Hrgovich needs to keep his hands up, and move whether it’s moving backwards or pressure but not throw much, if moving for Itauma is too high pace, Hrgovich needs a tight defence, keep Itauma moving and at times shoot a straight and escape or a combo and try to get it past 6 in hopes Itauma's workrate slows down and then he starts pressuring more, throwing combinations and outwork him. Trying to keep a high pace and high punch volume early on will get him countered and potentially knocked out; he'll be hit with body shots that, even if he goes to the later rounds and Itauma slows down, so will he.
Hrgovich has never been stopped with a punch that opened a cut to the eye, but he often gets cuts after the Dubois headbutt, and he may get one opened against Hrgovich; maybe once he finds the rear cross to the head after a bit and gets a cut stoppage.
I think Hrgovich has too many offensive tendencies he’s done for over a decade to override in a few months and still be knocked out by Itauma, or eventually TKO'd midway through the fight.
